Chainalysis报告：合并后以太坊的价格可能与其他加密货币“脱钩”

Cointelegraph中文Опубліковано о 2022-09-08Востаннє оновлено о 2022-09-08

Анотація

Chainalysis表示，ETH的价格可能会在合并后与其他加密货币脱钩，因为其质押回报可能会使其类似于债券或大宗商品。

加密分析公司Chainalysis表示，以太坊的价格可能会在合并后与其他加密资产脱钩，其质押收益率可能会推动机构的大力采用。

⠀

在9月7日的一份报告中，Chainalysis解释说，即将到来的以太坊升级将使机构投资者获得类似于债券和大宗商品等工具的质押收益，同时也会变得更加环保。

⠀

报告称，ETH质押预计为质押者提供10-15%的年收益率，因此，考虑到国债收益率相比之下要低得多，ETH将成为“对机构投资者来说有吸引力的债券替代品”。

⠀

“合并之后，以太坊的价格可能会与其他加密货币脱钩，因为它的质押回报将使其类似于债券或大宗商品等工具，具有套利溢价。”

⠀

根据Chainalysis的数据，机构ETH质押者(质押价值100万美元或以上)的数量一直在“稳步增长”，从2021年1月的不到200人增长到今年8月的约1100人。

⠀

该公司指出，如果这一数字在合并后以更快的速度增长，这应该会证实一项假设，即机构投资者“确实将以太坊质押视为一种良好的收益生成策略”。

⠀

Chainalysis的报告还预测，ETH在合并后将吸引更多的散户和机构交易员，因为即将到来的升级将使质押成为一个更有吸引力的投资工具。

⠀

目前被质押的ETH锁定在一份智能合约中，在合并后6到12个月左右上海升级到来时才能取出。

⠀

因此，以太坊质押市场目前缺乏流动性，导致一些质押服务提供商提供代表被质押的以太坊价值的合成资产，但该公司认为，缺点是“这些合成资产并不总是保持1:1的挂钩”。

⠀

报告写道：“上海升级……将允许用户随意提取质押的以太坊，为质押者提供更多流动性，使质押更具吸引力。”

⠀

报告中强调的另一个因素是，据以太坊基金会称，以太坊区块链的权益证明过渡将使其能源消耗需求在升级后下降高达99%。

⠀

“向PoS的转变也将使以太坊更环保，这可能会让有可持续发展承诺的投资者对该资产更加放心。这尤其适用于机构投资者。”

⠀

由以太坊联合创始人Joseph Lubin创立的MetaMask钱包背后的公司ConsenSys本周也发布了一份类似的报告，研究了“合并对机构的影响”。

⠀

ConsenSys的报告呼应了关于吸引机构的ETH质押奖励和环境可持续性的类似观点，但也强调了以太坊PoS链“为机构投资者提供更强大的安全保障”的重要性，以及ETH将成为通缩资产的潜力：

⠀

“ETH发行量的减少和销毁量的增加将系统性地减少ETH供应，给ETH带来通缩压力，从而缓解机构对代币价格跌至零的担忧，并提高增值可能性。”

Пов'язані матеріали

DeFi Falls into the Most Dangerous Prisoner's Dilemma in History

ChainCatcher author Gu Yu analyzes the severe fallout from the Kelp DAO exploit, which has triggered a crisis of confidence across the DeFi ecosystem, implicating major projects like Aave, LayerZero, and Arbitrum. The attack, attributed to the Lazarus Group, exploited a single-validator (1/1) configuration in LayerZero’s decentralized verification network (DVN), leading to over $40M in losses. LayerZero’s official report claimed its protocol “operated as expected” and deflected blame onto Kelp DAO’s configuration choices, sparking backlash from developers and researchers who criticized its avoidance of responsibility. Meanwhile, Arbitrum’s security committee intervened by using a privileged transaction to freeze and recover ~30,766 ETH ($71M) from the hacker’s address—a move praised for pragmatism but criticized for undermining Layer2 decentralization ideals. The incident has intensified debates on cross-chain bridge security, Layer2 centralization risks, and the tension between practical security measures and decentralized principles. With Aave facing ~$200M in bad debt and no clear compensation plan from Kelp DAO or LayerZero, the situation reflects a dangerous “prisoner’s dilemma” where key players prioritize self-interest over collective trust, threatening foundational DeFi narratives.

marsbit2 хв тому

DeFi Falls into the Most Dangerous Prisoner's Dilemma in History

marsbit2 хв тому

Not Speculation but a Necessity: The 4 Unique Values of Prediction Markets

Polymarket's recent $4 billion funding round and soaring valuation of $15 billion highlight the explosive growth of prediction markets, with trading volume reaching $25.7 billion in March 2026—a 10.6% monthly increase. This analysis argues that prediction markets serve critical non-speculative functions, positioning them as essential tools rather than mere gambling platforms. Prediction markets offer four unique values: entertainment consumption, insurance-like protection, risk hedging, and truth discovery. Firstly, they stimulate economic activity by engaging users in event-based betting, similar to the broader sports industry. Secondly, they act as a form of decentralized insurance, allowing users to hedge against specific, well-defined risks (e.g., weather events) transparently and without traditional overhead costs. Thirdly, institutions and individuals use these markets to hedge against geopolitical and commodity price risks, as demonstrated during the U.S.-Iran conflict and the launch of 24/7 commodity markets on platforms like Kalshi. Finally, prediction markets counter media bias by aggregating crowd-sourced information, often achieving 30% higher accuracy than surveys due to users' vested interests. Experts like Bitwise’s Jeff Park and SIG’s Jeff Yass emphasize the markets' role in risk transfer and financial innovation. As these platforms evolve, they are poised to become trillion-dollar markets, offering more reliable, decentralized mechanisms for information pricing and risk management.

marsbit3 хв тому

Not Speculation but a Necessity: The 4 Unique Values of Prediction Markets

Polymarket's recent $4 billion funding round, valuing it at $15 billion, highlights the explosive growth of prediction markets, with trading volume surging from $8.7 billion to $25.7 billion in just a few months. This article argues that prediction markets are not merely speculative gambling platforms but serve four core functions. First, they act as a form of entertainment and consumption, stimulating economic activity similar to the sports industry. Second, they provide a form of limited insurance, allowing users to hedge against specific, well-defined risks (e.g., weather events) in a transparent, cost-effective manner without traditional insurance overhead. Third, they are powerful tools for risk hedging, enabling both individuals and institutions to mitigate exposure to volatile events like commodity price swings and geopolitical crises. Finally, prediction markets can function as "truth machines," aggregating crowd wisdom to counter media narratives and biases, with some claims suggesting a 30% higher accuracy over traditional surveys. The piece concludes that the role and potential value of prediction markets are far greater than commonly perceived, positioning them as a significant future market.

Odaily星球日报18 хв тому

Interview with Jeff Hoffman: How Web3 and AI Are Reshaping the Trillion-Dollar Social Travel Market

Interview with Jeff Hoffman: Web3 and AI Reshaping the Trillion-Dollar Social Travel Market Jeff Hoffman, co-founder of Priceline, discusses how Web3 and AI are transforming the social travel industry. He highlights that the current travel market is fragmented and inefficient, dominated by traditional online travel agencies (OTAs) that act as intermediaries with opaque models. Web3 introduces direct connections, transparency, and faster settlements, shifting value back to travelers. Key trends driving this change include demand for flexible rewards, digital payments, and trust in communities over ads. Hoffman joined Staynex not for its Web3 label, but because it addresses industry inefficiencies by integrating booking, payments, AI-driven itineraries, and rewards into a single ecosystem. This Web2.5 model combines Web2 scale with Web3 incentives. He emphasizes the team’s focus on execution over hype as a key reason for his involvement. Looking ahead, blockchain will enable transparent rewards and seamless cross-border payments, while AI provides personalization. Together, they will turn travel into a continuous relationship rather than a transaction. Hoffman predicts traditional OTAs will persist, but value will shift to platforms that own payment, loyalty, and community networks. Social travel represents a significant, underestimated opportunity in Web3.

marsbit33 хв тому

Interview with Jeff Hoffman: How Web3 and AI Are Reshaping the Trillion-Dollar Social Travel Market

marsbit33 хв тому

Rare Evo 2026 Returns to Las Vegas as the Industry’s Premier Cross-Chain Blockchain Event, Spotlighting Policy, Regulation, and Institutional Adoption

Rare Evo 2026, one of the fastest-growing blockchain conferences, will return to the ARIA Resort & Casino in Las Vegas from July 28–31, 2026. The event will focus on policy, regulation, and the convergence of traditional finance with blockchain infrastructure. It will bring together leaders from DeFi, Layer 1 ecosystems, institutional finance, government, and enterprise to foster crucial industry dialogue. Key themes include global regulatory frameworks, U.S. policy developments, institutional onboarding, and the role of traditional finance in Web3. With expected attendance of 3,000–4,000, the conference will feature keynotes, panels, workshops, hackathons, and networking events, serving as a neutral platform for collaboration across the digital asset ecosystem.

TheNewsCrypto1 год тому

Rare Evo 2026 Returns to Las Vegas as the Industry’s Premier Cross-Chain Blockchain Event, Spotlighting Policy, Regulation, and Institutional Adoption

TheNewsCrypto1 год тому

Торгівля

Спот

Ф'ючерси