Chainalysis报告：合并后以太坊的价格可能与其他加密货币“脱钩”

Cointelegraph中文Опубліковано о 2022-09-08Востаннє оновлено о 2022-09-08

Анотація

Chainalysis表示，ETH的价格可能会在合并后与其他加密货币脱钩，因为其质押回报可能会使其类似于债券或大宗商品。

加密分析公司Chainalysis表示，以太坊的价格可能会在合并后与其他加密资产脱钩，其质押收益率可能会推动机构的大力采用。

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在9月7日的一份报告中，Chainalysis解释说，即将到来的以太坊升级将使机构投资者获得类似于债券和大宗商品等工具的质押收益，同时也会变得更加环保。

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报告称，ETH质押预计为质押者提供10-15%的年收益率，因此，考虑到国债收益率相比之下要低得多，ETH将成为“对机构投资者来说有吸引力的债券替代品”。

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“合并之后，以太坊的价格可能会与其他加密货币脱钩，因为它的质押回报将使其类似于债券或大宗商品等工具，具有套利溢价。”

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根据Chainalysis的数据，机构ETH质押者(质押价值100万美元或以上)的数量一直在“稳步增长”，从2021年1月的不到200人增长到今年8月的约1100人。

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该公司指出，如果这一数字在合并后以更快的速度增长，这应该会证实一项假设，即机构投资者“确实将以太坊质押视为一种良好的收益生成策略”。

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Chainalysis的报告还预测，ETH在合并后将吸引更多的散户和机构交易员，因为即将到来的升级将使质押成为一个更有吸引力的投资工具。

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目前被质押的ETH锁定在一份智能合约中，在合并后6到12个月左右上海升级到来时才能取出。

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因此，以太坊质押市场目前缺乏流动性，导致一些质押服务提供商提供代表被质押的以太坊价值的合成资产，但该公司认为，缺点是“这些合成资产并不总是保持1:1的挂钩”。

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报告写道：“上海升级……将允许用户随意提取质押的以太坊，为质押者提供更多流动性，使质押更具吸引力。”

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报告中强调的另一个因素是，据以太坊基金会称，以太坊区块链的权益证明过渡将使其能源消耗需求在升级后下降高达99%。

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“向PoS的转变也将使以太坊更环保，这可能会让有可持续发展承诺的投资者对该资产更加放心。这尤其适用于机构投资者。”

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由以太坊联合创始人Joseph Lubin创立的MetaMask钱包背后的公司ConsenSys本周也发布了一份类似的报告，研究了“合并对机构的影响”。

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ConsenSys的报告呼应了关于吸引机构的ETH质押奖励和环境可持续性的类似观点，但也强调了以太坊PoS链“为机构投资者提供更强大的安全保障”的重要性，以及ETH将成为通缩资产的潜力：

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“ETH发行量的减少和销毁量的增加将系统性地减少ETH供应，给ETH带来通缩压力，从而缓解机构对代币价格跌至零的担忧，并提高增值可能性。”

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