加密VC转向AI：一场始于信念崩塌的“成人礼”

比推Опубліковано о 2026-02-05Востаннє оновлено о 2026-02-05

Анотація

知名加密风投Multicoin Capital合伙人Kyle Samani宣布离开加密行业，转向AI、长寿技术和机器人领域，引发作者对行业现状的反思。作者认为Kyle的离开象征着加密行业某种“诚实与锐利”特质的消失，并指出其退出声明中坦承“区块链主要只是资产账本，在非金融领域潜力有限”的观点，反映了许多人信仰崩塌的心路历程。 文章对比了加密行业与AI领域的发展差异：AI在推动技术革命和生产力提升，而加密行业仍陷于金融博弈与技术细节争论，近期创新多集中于Meme币和链上博彩。尽管当前加密市场数据优于上轮熊市，但行业信心明显不足。 作者承认加密行业存在过度金融化、叙事乏力等问题，但仍选择留下。理由包括：加密领域仍提供相对公平的阶层跃迁机会，DeFi与稳定币已带来实际金融基础设施变革，且自身仍期待行业存在未发掘的可能性。文末提出未来加密或可能成为AI时代价值结算层，但当前正经历从“ evangelist（布道者）”到“realist（现实主义者）”的行业成人礼。

作者:哆啦 B 梦,深潮 TechFlow

原标题:Kyle 离开了加密行业,我有点伤心

*本文为个人观点表达

2 月 5 日,一个在大跌中开启的早晨,我像往常一样刷推特,信息流里突然跳出知名加密 VC Multicoin 合伙人 Kyle Samani 的退出声明。手指在屏幕上停住了几秒,心里咯噔一下,怎么是他?

我认识 Kyle,准确说是"单向认识"。

2020 年大三那年,我第一次读到 Multicoin 的“喊单”论文,耳目一新,论文驱动(Thesis-Driven)印在了脑海中。

原来 VC 可以这样写东西,不用 PPT 式的"我们看好 XX 赛道的长期价值",说一些模棱两可的话,而是像交易员的思考,直接给出明确的多空逻辑、不和稀泥,观点鲜明。

Kyle 在推特上的形象一直很鲜明:aggressive,mean,得罪了无数人。

他敢在所有人看好以太坊时公开唱空其扩容路线,敢在其他人都不看好 Solana 时坚定下注,敢在 FTX 爆雷、Multicoin 损失惨重后第一时间公开透明地披露损失并复盘决策。

西方加密圈很多人讨厌他,觉得他 too arrogant,但我一直觉得,这个行业也需要他这样的人。

现在他走了。转向 AI、长寿技术、机器人。我突然有点伤心:连 Kyle 都不想玩了,这个行业到底怎么了?

当 Kyle 离开

让我伤心的不是又一个 VC 转向 AI,这年头谁不在谈 AI?

让我伤心的是,偏偏是 Multicoin 的 Kyle,一个在我看来很坚定的人。

大多数 Crypto VC 的投资逻辑是什么?广撒网、赌赛道、说漂亮话但从不下判断,或者只知道跟投。

翻开那些知名机构的投资报告,永远是"我们相信去中心化的未来"、"我们看好 XX 领域的创新",但你永远看不到一句坚定的"我们认为 A 项目会跑赢 B 项目"。

这不是谨慎,这是世故,反正不管谁赢,他们都能说"你看我们早就布局了"。

Kyle 或者说 Multicoin 不是这样,他敢下"生死判断"。

2017 年就公开说以太坊的分片路线是死路,曾经押注 EOS 失败了,2018 年又把宝押在 Solana 上,2020 力挺 Helium 认为 DePIN 是 Crypto 唯一能落地的非金融场景。

对,他错过很多,也犯过大错,EOS 和 FTX 就是血淋淋的教训。但他从不遮掩,损失多少就披露多少,该认的错一个不少。

他不是最聪明的 VC,不是最温和的布道者,但他算是最"真实"的那几个。他的离开,象征着某种"诚实与锋锐"正在从这个行业消失。

那条秒删的推文

更让我在意的是他离开前发的那条推文,虽然秒删了。

他说:"加密货币本质上并没有许多加密爱好者所期望的那么有趣。我曾经相信 Web3 的愿景,相信 dApps。现在我不信了。区块链主要是资产账本,虽然能重塑金融,但在其他领域的潜力有限。"

为什么要秒删?因为说出来就是"异教徒"。

为什么又忍不住发?这是一个困在信仰与现实之间的人,花了 8 年时间、投入上亿美元,最终得出的结论。

我太理解这种心情了,因为这也是我这一年的心路。

2021 年入场时,我们相信的是什么?去中心化社交会颠覆 Twitter,链上身份(DID)会让用户掌控自己的数据,GameFi 会让玩家真正"own their assets"。那时候的推特时间线里,每个人都在讨论"Web3 将如何改变世界",每一个新项目都像是通往未来的入口。

2025 年的现实呢?Friend.tech 死了,Lens Protocol 没人用。ENS 沦为炒作工具,除了钱包地址没人真的用 DID。Axie、StepN 的崩盘证明"X to Earn"只是庞氏的马甲。

但 Kyle 也没有全盘否定。他依然看好 stablecoin、DeFi、RWA 这些金融应用,以及 Helium 这些 DePIN 项目,依然押注 Zama 的全同态加密技术。

问题是:这些东西,还需要"信仰"吗?还是只需要理性计算?

Kyle 的离开有人评价为背叛,在我眼中算是"祛魅",从一个 Crypto Evangelist 变成了一个 Crypto Realist,这个转变,可能正是整个行业必须经历的成人礼。

上一次我们失去的是钱,这一次失去的是信心

2022 年 FTX 爆雷的时候,整个行业跌到谷底。Luna 归零、三箭破产、市场腰斩再腰斩。但那时候,大家心里还有一个信念:市场崩了,但我们没错。只要坚持,牛市会证明一切。

那个时候,我们还相信以太坊的"终局叙事",从 PoW 到 PoS,从单链到模块化,认为这是通往"世界计算机"的必经之路。

我们还相信 Solana 的"性能革命",认为只要熬过熊市,高性能链一定会赢。

我们还相信 Web3 的"范式转移",认为互联网的下一章必然是去中心化。

2025 年的现在呢?

客观数据其实比上一轮低谷好太多了,BTC 一度突破 10 万美元,ETF 通过,Crypto 和华尔街联系更加紧密。

但主观感受却截然相反,价格更高了,但信心却更低了。

“罪魁祸首”或者说“照妖镜”是 AI。

2023 年 ChatGPT 发布时,所有人都在讨论"AI 会如何改变世界"。同期,Crypto 在讨论什么?"L2 的排序器应该去中心化吗?"一个在谈论生产力革命,一个在争论技术细节。

之后的两年,AI 的进展简直让人目眩神迷:Gemini、Claude、ChatGPT 三强争霸,每天都是不一样的新东西,最近大家都痴迷于 OpenClaw。

Crypto 呢?L2 和链越来越多,但没人能说清"为什么需要 100 个 L2",甚至连 Vitalik 也反思曾经的路线错误。NFT、GameFi、SocialFi 轮番上阵,但都只是昙花一现。

发展到今天,这个周期最大的创新竟然是 Meme Coin 和 “重新发明博彩”。

我常常在深夜问自己:AI 在用技术重新定义生产力,Crypto 在用金融游戏重新分配财富。前者是创造,后者是转移。我们到底在建设什么?

Kyle 的离开,本质上是一个"价值选择"。

他选择去追逐 AI、长寿科技、机器人,那些真正在"扩展人类边疆"的领域。而 Crypto,至少在当下,更像是一个高级赌场。

但我还不想离开

说到这里,你可能以为我也要宣布退出了。

但不,我还想再“赌”一把。

Kyle 可以离开,因为他已经财富自由,可以去追逐更宏大的梦想。但对我这样的年轻人来说,Crypto 依然意味着:一个相对公平的"阶层跃迁"通道,一个"permissionless"的试验场,不需要学历、背景、人脉,只需要认知和勇气,一个还没有完全被精英阶层垄断的新兴行业。

更重要的是,也许 Web3 的宏大叙事失败了,但这不意味着 Crypto 毫无价值。

金融基础设施的革命已经发生了,稳定币的每日结算量已经超过 Visa,DeFi 让全世界的人都能 7×24 小时使用金融服务和 RWA。

最关键的是:我还没想清楚自己的答案。

Kyle 花了 8 年得出"Crypto 只是资产账本"的结论,

但我还只是一个新兵蛋子,凭什么现在就下判断?

也许再过几年,我也会像他一样离开。但至少现在,我还想留在牌桌上,看一下这个行业是否还藏着一些我们没看到的可能性。

若干年后,那时的 Crypto 或许已经不再是"颠覆一切"的革命,而是 AI 时代的价值结算层。

到那时,我会点一杯咖啡,再聊一聊,沿途看到的风景。

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原文链接:https://www.bitpush.news/articles/7609106

Пов'язані питання

QKyle Samani的离开为什么让作者感到特别伤心？

A因为Kyle Samani代表的是一种'诚实与锋锐'的投资风格，他敢于下明确的判断并公开承认错误，他的离开象征着这种特质正在从加密行业消失，让作者感到行业可能失去了某种真实性和坚定信念。

QKyle Samani在离开前秒删的推文中表达了什么核心观点？

A他表达了对Web3愿景的幻灭，认为加密货币本质上主要是资产账本，虽然在金融领域有重塑潜力，但在去中心化应用（dApps）等非金融领域的潜力有限，这反映了他从'加密布道者'到'加密现实主义者'的转变。

Q作者认为当前加密行业与AI发展相比存在哪些问题？

A作者指出AI在推动生产力革命，每天都有突破性进展，而加密行业却陷入技术细节争论和金融游戏（如Meme Coin和博彩化创新），缺乏真正创造价值的实质性进步，导致行业信心下降。

Q尽管行业存在困境，作者为什么选择继续留在加密领域？

A作者认为加密行业仍是一个相对公平的阶层跃迁通道和无需许可的试验场，同时金融基础设施（如稳定币和DeFi）已发生实际革命，且作为年轻人，他尚未形成最终判断，希望探索行业可能隐藏的未发现可能性。

QKyle Samani的离开被作者视为什么象征？

A他的离开被视为加密行业必须经历的'成人礼'，标志着从过度理想化的'信仰驱动'转向更现实的'理性计算'，是行业祛魅和成熟过程中的一个关键节点。

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