В Glassnode опровергли достижение биткоином дна

cryptonews.ruОпубліковано о 2025-11-25Востаннє оновлено о 2025-11-25

После провала биткоином в начале недели уровня $94 000 трейдеры активно скупали краткосрочные пут-опционы с ценой экспирации $75 000. На это обратили внимание в Glassnode.

75K Put Premium

Short- and mid-term 75K puts have been heavily bought since BTC lost the 94K level. The options market isn’t signaling a bottom yet and is leaning toward the risk of a deeper move.https://t.co/EjNiVN7l4F pic.twitter.com/tvLWG9SVM7
— glassnode (@glassnode) November 21, 2025

Доминирующие позиции в контрактах пут указывают на ожидания снижения котировок ниже уровня исполнения.

«Рынок опционов пока не сигнализирует о достижении дна и склоняется к риску более глубокого движения», — пришли к выводу специалисты аналитической платформы.

Суммарный объем ставок на пут-опционы достиг 67,6%. Трейдеры агрессивно хеджировали падение за счет покупок контрактов на более длинные сроки.

Динамика индексов недельной и месячной волатильности сигнализировала об «экстремальной панике» на краткосрочном горизонте, добавили аналитики.

21 ноября первая криптовалюта упала ниже отметки $85 000.

Ранее аналитик Аксель Адлер — младший на основе трех ключевых метрик для институциональных инвесторов выделил две критических отметки для текущей коррекции биткоина. Одной из них оказался уровень $87 000, другой — $74 000.

Эксперты из XWIN Research допустили, что котировки до конца года могут «зажаться» в диапазоне $60 000-80 000. Данный сценарий реализуется, если Федеральная резервная система США откажется от снижения ключевой ставки в декабре.

Перспективы восстановления

Трейдер под ником EgyHash считает, что для бычьего разворота необходим рост активности китов.

A Market Without Whales: Retail Fatigue Pushes Bitcoin Into Deeper Declines

“Unless significant institutional demand returns or retail participation meaningfully recovers, Bitcoin is likely to remain under pressure.” – By @EgyHashX pic.twitter.com/6RRc3g8m3S
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 21, 2025

Об уходе с рынка крупных игроков в последние месяцы сигнализировали метрики сегмента фьючерсов. Теперь в этот процесс включились более мелкие инвесторы, что еще более снижает ликвидность рынка цифрового золота, отметил эксперт.

«Если не произойдет значительного восстановления институционального спроса или возвращения розничных продавцов, биткоин, вероятно, останется под давлением, с ограниченными перспективами сильного отскока в ближайшем будущем», — заключил EgyHash.

Аналитики Swissblock обратили внимание, что метрика Risk-Off в биткоине вплотную приблизилась к зоне капитуляции. Подобные значения соответствовали основным минимумам цены за последние два года.

The Risk-Off Signal is just inches from the capitulation zone, the same zone that has marked major BTC bottoms in the past two years.

We’re entering the final stretch of seller exhaustion.

Once it rolls over, BTC snaps into a bottoming phase with sharp, fast rebounds. pic.twitter.com/hFPdG8IPmm
— Swissblock (@swissblock__) November 21, 2025

«Мы вступаем в финальную фазу истощения продавцов. Как только сигнал Risk-Off достигает минимума, BTC резко и быстро отскакивает», — заявили эксперты.

Напомним, исследователи Bernstein считают, что текущая коррекция биткоина будет краткосрочной и не ознаменует начало масштабного даунтренда.

Пов'язані матеріали

Introducing: Market Compass

Glassnode introduces Market Compass, a dashboard providing a unified view of Bitcoin market conditions. It consolidates thousands of on-chain and market metrics into seven "lenses." Four forward-looking lenses (Macro, Capital Flows, Investor Behavior, On-Chain Fundamentals) feed a headline composite score from 0 (Risk-Off) to 100 (Risk-On). Three standalone lenses (Cycle Position, Derivatives, Cross-Asset Rotation) describe the current market structure. In the current reading, the headline score is 14/100 (Risk-Off), indicating a defensive regime. The Macro lens is the weakest at 23, constrained by a strong US Dollar (DXY) trading above its 200-day average. While the other forward-looking lenses show moderate improvement from recent lows, the overall picture suggests bottom-fishing within an unturned market cycle. Key observations include stablecoin supply shrinking (reduced buying power), long-term holders absorbing supply, tepid on-chain demand, and a derivatives market coiled for a potential move. The tool is designed as a contextual map, not a direct trading signal, synthesizing complex data into a single coherent read.

insights.glassnode1 год тому

insights.glassnode1 год тому

NVIDIA CPU Advances, China's RISC-V Responds: Semiconductor Deep Dive - Part Four

NVIDIA is set to launch its new Vera AI data center CPU in China as early as August, with high pricing. While this move offers a new option, it highlights China's continued dependence on foreign-controlled Arm architecture. In response, the Chinese semiconductor industry is increasingly turning to RISC-V as a strategic alternative for achieving high-performance computing autonomy. The article explores the concept of the "impossible triangle" in CPU development—balancing prosperity, control, and autonomy—and posits that RISC-V's open-source, modular nature offers a unique path to achieving all three. While RISC-V is already dominant in embedded systems, the focus is now shifting to data centers and AI workloads. China has become a global hotspot for RISC-V development, driven by AI-driven compute demand, supply chain concerns from export controls, cost benefits of open-source, and strong policy support. Multiple Chinese companies have reportedly crossed the key performance threshold of 15 SPECint per GHz, a benchmark for entering the high-performance CPU club. Progress extends beyond single-core benchmarks. Companies are developing complete computing subsystems, including commercial-grade coherent network-on-chip (NoC) technology and server processors with up to 40 cores that strictly adhere to the RVA23 standard to ensure software compatibility. Real-world applications are emerging in areas like video transcoding and edge AI. However, significant challenges remain. The RISC-V ecosystem faces fragmentation, immature toolchains and verification processes, and gaps in single-core performance and energy efficiency compared to mature x86 and Arm architectures. The formidable software moat, epitomized by NVIDIA's CUDA, is a long-term hurdle. In conclusion, while RISC-V cannot immediately replace offerings like NVIDIA's Vera, it represents a viable long-term path for China to develop a self-sufficient, high-performance CPU ecosystem. The journey is acknowledged to be long and arduous, requiring sustained effort to overcome technical and ecosystem challenges.

marsbit2 год тому

NVIDIA CPU Advances, China's RISC-V Responds: Semiconductor Deep Dive - Part Four

marsbit2 год тому

Stratosphere, Pudgy Penguins and Streamex Host Founders Table VIP Dinner During ETHConf 2026 and NYC Tech Week

During ETHConf 2026 and NYC Tech Week, Stratosphere, Pudgy Penguins, and Streamex co-hosted an exclusive Founders Table VIP Dinner in New York City. The June 9th event assembled a select group of founders, C-level executives, investors, and institutional leaders from firms such as Citi, BitGo, Delphi Digital, and Pyth Network for private, agenda-free networking. The dinner aimed to foster natural conversations among key figures across digital assets, tech, AI, and traditional finance. Stratosphere contributed its extensive network, Pudgy Penguins added its strong consumer brand community, and Streamex provided expertise in tokenized commodities and institutional markets. Stratosphere CEO Hassan Shaikh highlighted the importance of such gatherings for discussing market trends, particularly commodity tokenization. The Founders Table series, which runs alongside major industry conferences, is designed to build high-quality, relationship-driven connections that are difficult to achieve on standard conference floors. Stratosphere positions itself as an ecosystem growth partner for leading tech and finance brands.

TheNewsCrypto4 год тому

Stratosphere, Pudgy Penguins and Streamex Host Founders Table VIP Dinner During ETHConf 2026 and NYC Tech Week

TheNewsCrypto4 год тому

My Coding Betting Dashboard is Profiting, but Polymarket is Truly Not a Good Place for 'Arbitrage'

The author built a custom monitoring dashboard for Polymarket, a prediction market platform, and tested it with $1,600, achieving over 30% returns. However, the core argument is that Polymarket is not a good venue for traditional arbitrage. The dashboard has two main sections: a "Portfolio Dashboard" for tracking active positions with key metrics like total capital, P&L, and a risk-control module using a tier system (T1, T2, T3), and an "Opportunity Watchlist" for monitoring markets. The article details a critical structural trap in binary markets: a bet with a high perceived probability of success still carries a 100% loss risk if wrong. The author's T1/T2/T3 system is designed to manage this by limiting position sizes based on conviction and time horizon, emphasizing that high confidence should not equal high concentration. A key insight is the danger of "pseudo-diversification"—betting on different markets driven by the same underlying variable. The author concludes that Polymarket offers few true low-risk, arbitrage opportunities. It is instead a high-risk environment where wins can create a false sense of mastery, leading to large losses. The platform is better viewed as a training ground for honing judgment through disciplined, framework-driven betting rather than a reliable income source. The tools help transform intuition into structured, rule-based decisions to mitigate the risk of catastrophic errors.

marsbit5 год тому

My Coding Betting Dashboard is Profiting, but Polymarket is Truly Not a Good Place for 'Arbitrage'

marsbit5 год тому

WeChat AI Card Hands-On Guide: Has the AI Shopping Era Arrived?

**"WeChat AI Card" Practical Test Guide: Has the Era of AI Shopping Arrived?** WeChat has officially launched the "AI Exclusive Card," a feature integrated into its Workbuddy AI assistant. This card is designed to handle payments for AI-initiated purchases. Our hands-on test reveals it's not yet a tool for fully autonomous AI shopping, but rather a controlled payment layer for AI agents. The AI Card functions as an isolated sub-wallet within WeChat Pay. Users must bind the card and transfer funds into it from their main wallet. Crucially, every transaction requires explicit user confirmation via smartphone scan; AI cannot spend autonomously. Currently accessible through the Workbuddy agent, the card targets specific digital consumption scenarios: purchasing paid content (reports, data), calling paid APIs/tools, and subscribing to services. Its design prioritizes security and control by separating funds and mandating approval for each payment. We tested a real-world scenario: ordering bubble tea via Workbuddy using a "Meituan Life Assistant" skill. The process encountered multiple hurdles: high "skill" usage costs (exceeding daily free credits), and most importantly, while a payment was successfully initiated, the AI purchased an incorrect product (a mismatched group-buy coupon instead of the desired drink). This highlights the current limitation: the **AI Card only solves the payment step**. The broader challenge lies in the **AI agent's execution chain**—accurately understanding intent, navigating third-party platforms, selecting the right product, and ensuring proper fulfillment. The payment succeeded, but the purchase failed to meet the user's need. In conclusion, the WeChat AI Exclusive Card is a cautious, early-step experiment in AI commerce. It provides a secure, user-controlled payment method for agent interactions but is not yet capable of reliable, end-to-end complex purchases. For now, it's best used for low-value, low-risk digital services with careful user verification at each step. The vision of AI handling complete shopping tasks remains a work in progress.

marsbit8 год тому

WeChat AI Card Hands-On Guide: Has the AI Shopping Era Arrived?

marsbit8 год тому

Торгівля

Спот

Ф'ючерси