PlanB: пик биткоина может наступить в 2026-2028 годах

cryptonews.ruОпубліковано о 2025-04-20Востаннє оновлено о 2025-10-21

  • Аналитик PlanB считает, что четырехлетний цикл не гарантирует пик в октябре 2025 года.
  • Он назвал несколько сигналов, почему рынок все еще закладывает рост.

Криптоаналитик PlanB прокомментировал прогнозы относительно возможного пика цены биткоина и заявил, что он может наступить в 2026-2028 годах.

Эксперт отметил, что некоторые трейдеры считают, что локальный максимум уже состоялся на уровне $126 000, и ожидают падения ниже $100 000 в 2026 году. Однако PlanB не соглашается с такой оценкой.

Он напомнил, что хотя четырехлетний цикл халвинга действительно влияет на рынок, но делать прогнозы только на его основе — ошибка. По словам аналитика, модель Stock-to-Flow указывает на среднее значение цены актива в течение цикла, а не на его пик или дно.

В предыдущих трех циклах период шести месяцев до халвинга и 18 месяцев после него действительно был прибыльным, но этого недостаточно для надежного прогнозирования, отметил эксперт.

PlanB предположил, что биткоин может достичь пика не в 2025 году, а в 2026, 2027 или даже в 2028 году. По его мнению, это зависит от фундаментальной фазовой трансформации — изменения рынка, которое еще не состоялось в текущем цикле.

Среди технических сигналов, которые PlanB считает критическими для начала «большого скачка»:

  • RSI еще не достигал уровня 80;
  • реализованная цена не отклонилась от 200-недельной средней.

Он также добавил, что, либо «большой скачок» еще впереди, либо рынок перешел в более стабильный режим под контролем институтов и фондов. В обоих случаях это положительно для биткоина, а большой медвежий рынок без сильного скачка невозможен, подытожил эксперт

Напомним, ранее в Citigroup назвали биткоин зависимым от фондового рынка.

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