QCP Capital: криптовалютный рынок находится под давлением, но институциональный спрос остается сильным

cryptonews.ruОпубліковано о 2025-03-24Востаннє оновлено о 2025-09-25

Трейдинговая компания QCP Capital выпустила отчет, в котором отметила сохраняющееся давление на криптовалютный рынок в конце сентября. Биткоин удерживается на уровне поддержки $111 700, а Ethereum опустился ниже отметки $4 100, которая держалась с начала августа.

1-дневный график BTC/USD. Источник: Bitstamp

1-дневный график ETH/USD. Источник: Bitstamp

Ключевые уровни под угрозой

Аналитики QCP Capital предупреждают, что уверенный пробой текущих уровней поддержки может активировать движение к недавним минимумам. Для биткоина следующей целью станет отметка $107 000, для Ethereum — $3 300. Американские фондовые индексы продемонстрировали заметное падение, хотя китайские активы показали относительную устойчивость.

Институциональный спрос остается сильным

Несмотря на распродажи, институциональный интерес к биткоину не ослабевает. Спотовые биткоин-ETF привлекли $241 млн за последние сутки, прервав двухдневную серию оттока средств. Трейдеры активно скупают просадки — наибольшей популярностью пользуются колл-опционы на биткоин со страйком $118 000 и истечением в октябре.

Движение средств в биткоин-ETF США. Источник: Farside Investors

Торговая стратегия от QCP Capital

QCP Capital рекомендует использовать опционную стратегию для заработка на ожидаемом росте биткоина в четвертом квартале. Суть подхода заключается в покупке права на рост цены биткоина при одновременном ограничении потенциала прибыли. Такая конструкция позволяет снизить стоимость входа в позицию за счет продажи части потенциальной прибыли.

Конкретные параметры стратегии:

Покупка колл-опционов со страйком $118 000 и экспирацией в октябре
Использование текущих уровней поддержки для входа в позицию
Расчет на традиционно сильный четвертый квартал для криптовалют

Макроэкономический фон

С приближением четвертого квартала, который исторически демонстрирует более позитивную динамику для криптовалют, оптимизм участников рынка сохраняется. Этому способствуют смягчающиеся условия кредитования — рынок закладывает в цены еще два снижения ставки по 25 базисных пунктов в октябре и декабре. Только неожиданно сильные данные по занятости на следующей неделе могут изменить эти ожидания.

Текущая ситуация демонстрирует характерное для крипторынка противоречие: цены снижаются, но крупные игроки продолжают наращивать позиции. Институциональные инвесторы делают ставку на восстановление котировок в последние месяцы года, используя сентябрьскую слабость как возможность для входа.

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