Краткосрочные держатели биткоина запустили редкий сигнал разворота на уровне $107 000

cryptonews.ruОпубліковано о 2025-02-01Востаннє оновлено о 2025-09-02

Индикатор MVRV с полосами Боллинджера показал «перепроданность» — такое происходило всего дважды за прошлый год, и каждый раз становилось точкой разворота после коррекций.

Аналитик Фрэнк Феттер (Frank Fetter) из инвестиционной компании Vibes Capital Management опубликовал в соцсети X данные о ключевом событии капитуляции держателей. Спекулянты достигли критического порога прибыли, когда биткоин опустился до минимального уровня с начала июля.

Индикатор MVRV краткосрочных держателей с полосами Боллинджера. Источник: Фрэнк Феттер

Ключевой сигнал «перепроданности»

Реализованная цена краткосрочных держателей — инвесторов, владеющих биткоином до шести месяцев (STH), — теперь соответствует спотовой цене в $110 326. Этот уровень обычно служит поддержкой во время коррекций на бычьем рынке, но его потеря может привести к длительным периодам слабости цены BTC.

Ведущий индикатор MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) измеряет стоимость удерживаемых монет по отношению к цене, по которой они в последний раз перемещались в блокчейне. При текущих ценах MVRV для когорты краткосрочных держателей находится на уровне безубыточности.

Однако Феттер добавил к анализу индикатор волатильности Bollinger Bands, что дало ключевой сигнал «перепроданности». «Официально получили сигнал перепроданности на полосах Боллинджера MVRV краткосрочных держателей», — подтвердил он.

Полосы Боллинджера в сочетании с MVRV, опережающий индикатор цены, предлагают уровни стандартного отклонения, которые позволяют наблюдателям оценить, насколько редкими являются данные уровни значений STH-MVRV.

Исторические параллели

Феттер указал, что выпадение STH-MVRV вниз происходило только дважды за прошлый год. В августе 2024 года, когда массовая распродажа из-за кэрри-трейда с японской иеной, STH-MVRV упал ниже нижней линии стандартного отклонения полос Боллинджера. То же самое произошло в апреле этого года, когда торговые тарифы США привели к падению BTC/USD ниже $75 000.

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