公售遭大户疯抢的XPL,上线能否突破1美元?

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2025-09-02Востаннє оновлено о 2025-09-02

原创 | Odaily 星球日报(@OdailyChina

作者 | Asher(@Asher_ 0210

在市场整体情绪趋于降温的背景下,比特币和以太坊价格出现回调,主流山寨币的讨论热度也随之下滑。然而,在社区中仍被持续热议的“王炸级”项目中,除了昨日上线的 WLFI,另一大焦点便是由稳定币巨头 Tether 携手硅谷传奇投资人 Peter Thiel 共同投资的新型稳定币专用区块链 Plasma,代币为 XPL,其合约交易已登陆多家主流交易所。

Plasma 为何站上市场风口?

Plasma 之所以成为市场新宠,一方面是大机构背书,另一方面是其项目定位清晰。

在资本层面,Plasma 背后站着稳定币巨头 Tether 和硅谷传奇投资人 Peter Thiel,这本身就是极强的背书。自 2024 年底至 2025 年初,项目先后完成种子轮与 A 轮融资,累计筹集 2400 万美元;随后在 2025 年 5 月,Founders Fund 再次以 5 亿美元估值加码投资。Bitfinex 也曾单独投资 350 万美元,用于推动 USDT 在比特币生态的应用。如此密集的融资节奏与资本阵容,使得 Plasma 一亮相就具备“明星项目”的气质。

在技术设计和产品定位上,Plasma 走的不是通用公链的老路,而是瞄准稳定币原生基础设施。它以比特币主网作为最终结算层,继承了 UTXO 模型的安全性,同时兼容以太坊虚拟机,方便智能合约无缝迁移。更具吸引力的是,链上所有交易都可以直接用 USDT 支付 Gas,而 USDT 的普通转账彻底免费,大幅降低了稳定币支付的使用门槛。

在此基础上,Plasma 还进一步强化了差异化优势,其隐私功能允许用户选择性隐藏交易信息;通过无许可桥接技术将 BTC 引入链上,并结合 Tether 的美元深度池,用户能够实现低滑点兑换与基于 BTC 的稳定币借贷。凭借“零手续费 + 高性能 + 安全架构”,Plasma 试图打造一个链上版的“Visa 网络”,让稳定币支付真正进入日常场景。

Plasma 代币如何分配?

XPL 代币模型

7 月中旬,Plasma 公布 XPL 的代币经济模型,其总供应量为 100 亿枚,具体分配方案如下:

  • 公售:占总供应量的 10%,即 10 亿枚。其中,非美国购买者的 XPL 将在 Plasma 公共主网测试版启动时完全解锁;美国购买者的 XPL 需锁定 12 个月,将于 2026 年 7 月 28 日完全解锁。
  • 生态系统与项目增长:占总供应量的 40%,即 40 亿枚。其中 8% 为战略合作伙伴提供 DeFi 激励、满足流动性需求、支持交易所整合,并实施早期生态系统增长活动,将在主网测试版启动时立即解锁;另外 32% 分配给战略增长计划,旨在扩大 Plasma 网络的实用性、流动性和机构采用率,将在主网测试版启动后的三年内按比例每月解锁。
  • 团队:占总供应量的 25%,即 25 亿枚。其中 1/3 将在主网测试版公开启动后一年解锁,剩余 2/3 将在随后两年内按比例每月解锁。
  • 投资方:占总供应量的 25%,即 25 亿枚。解锁时间表与团队相同。

XPL 代币模型

XPL 的代币经济模型共分为 4 个部分,整体分配易理解,并且团队代币在主网测试版上线一年后才开始解锁,因此短期内不存在来自项目方的“砸盘”。

下面,我们重点讨论公售的 10 亿枚代币、生态系统与项目增长中分配给战略合作伙伴的 8 亿枚代币。

公售分配

对于公售的 10%,其发售价格为 0.05 美元,按照当前 XPL 合约价格(暂报 0.62 美元),收益率超 12 倍。

Plasma 公售的参与资格需要用户将以太坊主网的稳定币存入 Plasma Vault。6 月 9 日晚,存款通道正式开放,用户可在以太坊主网上将 USDT、USDC、USDS 或 DAI 存入 Plasma Vault,最终分配按照“时间加权份额”计算,即存得越早、持有时间越长,获得的分配就越多。

存款活动开启后异常火爆,仅 2 分钟就完成了目标额度。其中,某中巨鲸/机构地址(地址:https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/address/0x790c42D632502949e72Ab0981C2f0D2021141023)单独质押了 5000 万枚 USDC,占据了总份额的 20%。

单地址存款 5000 万枚 USDC

此外,某巨鲸为了往 Plasma 质押 1017 万枚 USDC,花了 39.15 ETH(价值约为 10 万美元)的 Gas 费成为首个质押的地址。

首个完成存款质押地址 Gas 花费 10 万美元

由于大量用户反馈未成功参与存款活动,Plasma 将存款上限调高至 10 亿 USDT,夸张的是,半小时就又“打满”了 5 亿 USDT,其中 Amber Group 关联地址存入 1630 万枚 USDT,Spartan Group 关联地址存入 500 万枚 USDT。

7 月 17 日,Plasma 正式开启公售。参与认购的用户资格依据此前存入 Vault 的“时间加权份额”来确定。公售定价为 0.05 美元/枚,最终总认购金额超过 3.73 亿美元,认购热度极高,超额认购达 7 倍以上。

币安理财分配

根据官方消息,Plasma 与币安合作,将总供应量的 1%,即 1 亿枚 XPL 代币分配给参与链上赚币的用户,并且用户存 USDT 还可以获得年化 2% 的 USDT 收益。活动初期,币安设定的认购额度为 2.5 亿 USDT,单账号上限 10 万 USDT,结果不到一小时便被抢购一空。随后,平台将总认购额度提升至 10 亿 USDT。

在第二轮开放中,新的 2.5 亿 USDT 额度仅用 5 分钟就被认购完毕。为此,币安将单账号认购额度下调至 1 万 USDT,并开放最后 5 亿 USDT 额度。由于额度下调后认购进度放缓,币安再次将单账号上限上调至 5 万 USDT,剩余额度才在数小时内被全部认购完毕。

以币安最终分配的 10 亿 USDT 总额度来计算,用户每存 1 万 USDT 大约可获得 1000 枚 XPL。在价格层面,XPL 上周最高曾突破 0.84 美元,当前合约价格为 0.62 美元。这意味着,若以当前价格计算,用户存入 1 万 USDT 可获得的代币价值约为 600 美元,若按最高价计算则可达 840 美元。除了空投代币收益外,USDT 存款本身在 2 个月可获得 0.33% 的收益,也就是约 33 美元的确定性回报。

因此,综合来看,用户每存 1 万 USDT,最终可以获得 33 美元的确定收益 + 1000 枚 XPL 代币(按当前价格约 600 美元,最高可达 800 美元),2 个月的收益率约为 6.3%,年化近 40%。

值得一提的是,除了分配给币安 1 亿枚代币外,生态系统与项目增长部分的剩余 7 亿枚 XPL 代币分配情况暂未公布。

小结

继 WLFI 开盘后,Plasma 的上线同样成为市场关注的焦点。按照 XPL 合约价格的波动区间 0.5 至 0.8 美元,XPL 总市值可达 50 至 80 亿美元。当天开盘流通量最多约 18%(美国 KYC 用户的代币不会立即解锁),对应的流通市值约 9 至 14.4 亿美元。

参考 CoinGecko 数据,流通市值排名第 100 位的 INJ 约为 12.4 亿美元。Plasma 背靠强力机构支持,又身处当下热门的稳定币赛道,如果市场持续追捧,单价突破 1 美元、开盘流通市值达到 18 亿也并非不可能,这或许只是它上行空间的起点。

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