Expert Sees Fed Reversing Interest Rate Hikes, How Will It Affect Crypto?

CoingapeОпубліковано о 2022-06-28Востаннє оновлено о 2022-06-28

Анотація

He also believes that the deflationary effect will be visible in the Customer Price Index.

Michael Burry, the hedge fund manager who famously shorted the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, predicts that the economic repercussions of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes may see the bank reversing its decision.  
Responding to CNN’s article about big retailers like Walmart and Target having oversized inventory, Burry said that the supply glut at retail is the result of the Bullwhip effect in play.
He also believes that the deflationary effect will be visible in the Customer Price Index. If true, this will lead the Fed to ease on rate hikes and its quantitative tightening policy. 
Cryptocurrencies had suffered heavy losses amid growing fears of inflation.  The market fell further in response to the interest rate hike by the Federal Reserves.
Therefore, cooling inflation and reversal by The Fed might lead to a bounce-back of the crypto market. But recent indicators show that inflation is far from cooling, with May’s reading coming in at an over 40-year high of 8.6%. 
How the Bullwhip Effect Affects The Market
The bullwhip effect is the result of an overestimation of demand in the supply chain, based on erroneous or short-term data. This often leads to a stockpile of inventories at every level of the supply chain. The resulting supply glut eventually causes a sharp drop in product prices. 
Burry, who was famously portrayed by Christian Bale in the 2015 movie “The Big Short,”  is not the only one who is warning of the effect. Tom Lee, the head of research at FundStrat revealed that it is very likely that the market mistook the bullwhip effect as inflation.
The Fed earlier raised the interest rates to three-quarters of a percentage point, the largest hike since 1994. But this has also put much strain on the economy. The double whammy of high interest rates and high inflation could bring about a prolonger recession. 
Interest rate reversal a positive signal for crypto
The crypto market suffered heavy losses as a result of the rate hike and inflation. However, crypto is presumed to resume its upward trajectory when the inflation is tamed. Oliver Gale, the co-founder of Panther Protocol, believed the inflation to be transitory and a mere bump in the road. 
But whether inflation can indeed be tamed in the near term remains to be seen. The space has never experienced a high-interest rate environment, having rallied through the past two years on easy monetary policy.

Пов'язані матеріали

Microsoft Announces Commercial-Grade Quantum Computer to be Completed in Three Years: Will the Boots Land?

Microsoft announces plans to build a commercially viable quantum computer by 2029, a significant acceleration from the previous industry consensus of a decade. The breakthrough is fueled by their new Majorana 2 quantum chip, which boasts a record-breaking average qubit lifetime of 20 seconds—a 1,000-fold reliability improvement over its predecessor. This leap was achieved by leveraging topological qubits, a theoretically more stable technology using Majorana zero modes, and switching the core superconducting material from aluminum to lead. Crucially, Microsoft's "Discovery" agentic AI platform accelerated the R&D process. AI agents autonomously analyzed vast experimental data, optimized manufacturing parameters (like the lead alloy composition), and solved issues like "ghost noise," dramatically speeding up experimentation. While the 20-second coherence time is a landmark, challenges remain: scaling from 12 qubits to the millions needed for practical applications, managing compilation costs, and verifying quantum results. Skeptics call for peer-reviewed data, and questions persist about whether even 20 seconds is sufficient for complex algorithms like breaking RSA encryption. The race is on with other approaches (superconducting, trapped ions), but Microsoft's confidence in its topological roadmap signals a potential shortcut to a scalable quantum future.

marsbit16 хв тому

Microsoft Announces Commercial-Grade Quantum Computer to be Completed in Three Years: Will the Boots Land?

marsbit16 хв тому

Is There Really a "World Cup Curse" in the Market?

Is there really a "World Cup Curse" affecting markets? Historical data shows global equity markets often underperform during the tournament. The S&P 500 has averaged negative returns of -1.5% to -2.11% across 19 World Cups since 1950, with declines in 58% of events. China's Shanghai Composite fell in 71% of tournaments since 1994. Studies confirm reduced trading activity during matches, with volumes dropping significantly, especially when a home nation plays. A team's loss can also lead to negative sentiment and selling pressure in its domestic market the next day. However, the "curse" may be partly attributed to seasonal weakness. Many tournaments are held in June-July, a historically weaker period for stocks ("Sell in May and go away"). The 2022 Qatar World Cup, held in November-December, saw a smaller drop in trading volume compared to summer events, suggesting timing plays a role. The cryptocurrency market's performance during World Cups has been mixed and largely driven by its own major catalysts (e.g., Mt. Gox hack, FTX collapse, halving cycles) rather than the tournament. Investment opportunities have shifted over time. Traditional beneficiaries like TV manufacturers have seen fading returns as streaming platforms become the core viewing channel. Classic consumer plays like beer and sportswear face challenges from changing consumption trends. Newer digital assets, like fractionalized collectible player cards on blockchain, have seen explosive growth. While gambling is a traditional sector, prediction markets are emerging. In conclusion, while a statistical correlation exists, the World Cup's direct impact on markets is likely limited and intertwined with seasonal patterns. With lower liquidity during the event, the simplest strategy for many might be to step back from trading and enjoy the games.

marsbit23 хв тому

Is There Really a "World Cup Curse" in the Market?

marsbit23 хв тому

Why 'AI Service Subscription' Is Destined to Die Out?

"Why 'AI Service Subscription Models' Are Doomed to Disappear" The article argues that the flat-rate subscription model for AI services is fundamentally unsustainable. It points to recent industry shifts, such as Anthropic limiting access to its flagship Claude Fable 5 model for subscribers after just 14 days, and GitHub and OpenAI moving towards credit-based or usage-based billing. The core problem is that subscription models rely on a capped human consumption limit—like watching videos or listening to music—which keeps costs predictable. However, the rise of autonomous AI agents shatters this premise. Agents can consume 5 to 30 times more computing resources (tokens) than a human chatting, and they operate continuously without user presence. This removes the natural usage cap, making fixed-price plans financially unviable as heavy users incur massive costs. Attempts to patch the model with higher tiers or usage caps have failed, often leading to "adverse selection" where only the heaviest users subscribe. The industry's solution is to hollow out subscriptions, replacing "unlimited" access with prepaid credits charged per token, akin to a utility meter. While chat-based subscriptions may linger, the real value and revenue are shifting to pay-as-you-go models. The current period represents a final, heavily subsidized phase for users. The conclusion is that the soul of subscription—a fixed price for worry-free use—is dying, soon to be replaced by pure usage-based pricing where everyone pays for their own "electricity meter."

marsbit23 хв тому

Why 'AI Service Subscription' Is Destined to Die Out?

marsbit23 хв тому

Торгівля

Спот
Ф'ючерси
活动图片