关于 VINE 是不是会被替换为「Imagine 」的几个逻辑

深潮Опубліковано о 2025-08-03Востаннє оновлено о 2025-08-04

除非作为商业主体的 X 明确表示要给重启后的 Vine 及相应代币 $VINE 相应的赋能,否则市场预期的估值和价格增长以及情绪预期都存在投机性风险。

撰文:Haotian

关于 $VINE 是不是会被替换为「Imagine」,谈几点逻辑:

1) $VINE 自始至终都是一个 MEME,它承载的是市场对于原先被关掉的 Vine 短视频平台能否被顺利重启的期许,所以只要 @elonmusk 和 @rus 二者之一没有明确表示放弃 Vine 的重启计划之前,VINE 就会一直存在;

2)Grok Imagine 最近被 Elon 高频推送和提及并不能代表 Imagine 要取代 VINE,即时 Elon 说了 Grok Imagine 就是 AI Vine,因为 Imagine 是一个产品分支功能,就好比 Grok 是 X 的 AI 模块一样,Imagine 也只是 Grok 的一个图片转视频的功能模块,Elon 高调推 Grok Imagine 只是为了凸显 Grok 的 AI 增强能力,并不等于要用 Imagine 来给 Vine 重新命名,至少老马没「明确」表态过;

3)「Bring back Vine」不仅是一个口号,背后更蕴含着复杂的文化、情感、品牌、IP 等等多种复杂的因素,这就意味着 Vine 是一个有特殊意义的文化符号,承载着一代人的互联网记忆,这种情感价值很难被替代。在此语境下,在看来 Elon 所说以 AI 形式来重启 Vine,其最终目标就是重启 Vine,Grok imagine 只是达成这个终极目标之前的一次核心产品能力展示。换句话说,若没有重启 Vine 的想法,大可不必提 Vine,用 AI 形式的目标不也是重启吗;

4)之所以一直强调 Grok Imagine 就是 AI Vine,只是为了表达一点,Vine 会以 AI 赋能的形式「加速」回归。别忘了,Vine 短视频平台的内核就是 6s 的视频,若 imagine 能够像 Elon 所说以实时渲染的能力直接把图转化成 6s 短视频,这绝对会是 Vine 重启后的核心卖点,大概率是 Imagine 作为创作工具,Vine 作为社交分发平台的形式共存,这一点 Rus 给出的「both」的回复也可以作证;

5)市场对于 $VINE 的预期一直来自 Vine 会不会真的被重启,Rus 能否在 X 担任要职,尤其是 Vine 的 logo 被整合展示在 X 的内容界面,甚至 VINE 会不会作为打赏货币流通于 Vine 等等。但请务必注意,截至目前 MEME 承载的只能是一种文化情感归属,除非作为商业主体的 X 明确表示要给重启后的 Vine 及相应代币 $VINE 相应的赋能,否则市场预期的估值和价格增长以及情绪预期都存在投机性风险;

Note:MEME 市场波动性比较大,投资买卖请一定注意风险,以上分析仅供参考。

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