空军牛市来了？地缘冲突下的加密投资操作大赏

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2025-06-23Востаннє оновлено о 2025-06-23

Анотація

山寨持续归零，无脑做空致富，心存幻想止损？

原创｜Odaily 星球日报（@OdailyChina）

作者｜Wenser（@wenser 2010 ）

空军牛市来了？地缘冲突下的加密投资操作大赏

随着美国突袭伊朗核设施基地一事的逐渐扩散，加密市场再度迎来猛烈下跌，BTC 一度失守 10 万美元大关，ETH 价格则下跌至 2300 美元下方，由此，一场属于空军的牛市或许已然拉开了帷幕。

近几日，无论是做空的个人交易者还是机构，几乎都处于盈利状态，不少交易员甚至扬眉吐气一般对外发声，堪称“打了个翻身仗”。

目前来看，市场仍处于地缘政治冲突下的恐慌性下跌与小幅回弹之间左右横跳的状态，Odaily星球日报将于本文探讨“空军牛市”的后续持续时间及关键性影响因素，供读者参考。注：本文仅为观点视角分享，不构成投资建议。

空军大牛市 VS 震荡型陷阱：只要你开空，就能赚钱？

在伊以局势越发紧张的当下，曾经作为避险资产的 BTC 如今已经成为全球经济体中的一部分，“伊以冲突，钱包买单”已成为不少加密人群无奈的自嘲。而在这样的市场形势下，做空群体却是赚得盆满钵满的那一小撮人。

“空军头子”发威：做空 16 种代币，浮盈近 1000 万美元

6 月 20 日，Hyperliquid 上一位做空 16 个山寨币的“空军头子”累计盈利暂报 968 万美元，远高于上周的 356 万美元，彼时，其 16 个持仓中有 15 个为浮盈状态，唯一浮亏的 HYPE 亏损已缩窄至 192 万美元，整体仓位价值约为 5330 万美元。

值得一提的是，该巨鲸于 6 月 17 日已部分平仓了 ETH、PEPE、INIT、XRP 在内的多个标的，锁定了部分利润。

空军牛市来了？地缘冲突下的加密投资操作大赏

https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-06/2db7088ba8c8422e8f818e4bc67cf83a.jpg

目前，该地址已提出 134 万美元资金，账户下浮盈利润仍然高达 927 万美元。值得一提的是，造成其唯一损失的代币是 HYPE，目前浮亏约 170 万美元。

无独有偶的是，“空军头子”不止一个。

“空军巨鲸/机构”：做空 58 个代币，浮盈超 2000 万美元

6 月 16 日起，某巨鲸/机构开启了自己的“空军之旅”——其在 Hyperliquid 上开空 58 个币种，包括 BTC、ETH、SOL、XRP、PEPE、FARTCOIN、DOGE、AAVE、HYPE 等。目前，该地址浮盈 2134 万美元，其仓位规模达到 7779 万美元， 58 个空单中只有两个为浮亏状态，为 HYPE（浮亏约 428 万美元）、 AAVE（浮亏约 1.6 万美元）；战绩最好的则是 ETH，浮盈 443.8 万美元。

空军牛市来了？地缘冲突下的加密投资操作大赏

https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-06/464ca5e0624740a6ae9966357874cb4c.jpg

ETH 聪明钱：顶部做空，浮盈超 2000 万美元

除了“无脑做空”的空军头子，此次做空热潮中还包括了“ETH 聪明钱玩家”。

据 LookonChain 监测，某底部做多 ETH 聪明钱过去一个月操作几乎完美无缺，每次都能在 ETH 大幅下跌之前平仓，在顶部做空，此前一个月曾狂赚 2000 万美元。目前，该地址累计浮盈超 2175 万美元，仓位价值高达约 9000 万美元。

空军牛市来了？地缘冲突下的加密投资操作大赏

https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-06/87bd1f22ba8e43f287d029d27a344b20.jpg

业内人士观点一览：数据党统计、交易员观点、美股山寨牛市、特朗普等“不稳定因素”

身处当下市场，针对目前下跌震荡的局势，业内人士也纷纷给出了自己的观点看法，有人从数据方面出发，有人则更多基于宏观层面风险给出自身观点，也有人认为此前 Circle 上市及美股山寨牛市一定程度上影响了加密市场的流动性，结合美国总统特朗普“冒天下之大不韪”做出的种种骚操作，共同构成了加密市场的“不稳定因素”。

数据统计：半年内新低代币数量达 294 个

据加密 KOL @zxw 018018 发文统计，前 1000 交易量币种中：半年新高标的代币仅有 9 个；半年新低标的代币数量则高达 294 个。他个人认为，这是“山寨持续归零中”的一大表现。

交易员James Wynn：增持空单，BTC 短期目标为 9.3 到 9.5 万美元

此前因做多 BTC 而声名鹊起、最终又因高频开单的交易员 James Wynn 近日发文表示，已“加大仓位做空”，并将比特币短期目标价定在 93, 000 至 95, 000 美元。

他指出，在更多国家可能加入战局的背景下，市场仍未充分反映现实风险。此外，美国并无降息预期，所谓的多头逻辑仅依赖全球流动性扩张，但这并非来自美元体系。此外，其进一步提出阴谋论，认为美国政府可能希望通过某种“黑天鹅事件”迫使比特币下跌，从而为其自身创造低位建仓的机会。（当然，这纯属主观个人臆想。）

而美国突袭伊朗核设施一事确实在某种程度上加剧了外界对伊以冲突扩大化的猜测与市场“用脚投票”的下跌走势。

美股山寨牛市：BTC 储备阵营壮大，Circle 引领稳定币板块

对加密市场产生重大影响的另一重因素，则在于 BTC ETF、ETH ETF 通过之后的美股市场。

一方面，Strategy 的“囤币策略”被 Metaplanet 等上市公司成功验证，成为不少上市公司储备资金、拉升股价的拿手好戏，这进一步影响了圈外资金流入加密市场的可能性和规模；另外一方面，携“稳定币第一股”概念强势登陆美股的 Circle 以及波场 TRON 反向合并的 SRM 公司成为美股市场的“山寨王者”，稳定币板块由此引领了近期的美股山寨牛市。

空军牛市来了？地缘冲突下的加密投资操作大赏

美股上市公司囤币近况

出乎不少加密人群意料的是，Circle 股价居然一路飙升至如今的接近 260 美元，这在一定程度上也对山寨币市场产生了“虹吸效应”，资金流动性进一步萎缩。

特朗普促使局部地区热战进一步白热化，美国处于战争泥潭边缘

至于特朗普，对于现在的伊以冲突而言，毫无疑问是个十足的搅屎棍。

6 月 20 日，美国白宫就伊朗问题给出的态度是：美国总统特朗普将在两周内决定是否对伊朗采取军事行动。

而就在短短的 2 天后，特朗普则耀武扬威般对外界表示，美军已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施的打击行动，其中福尔多为主要目标并已实施全弹量投掷。

如此反复多变的政治态度与雷厉风行的军事打击，进一步加剧了中东地区伊以局势的紧张程度，最新消息显示，伊朗方面计划关闭石油运输咽喉管道——霍尔木兹海峡，此举已得到伊朗议会批准，但仍需等待最高安全机构最终决定。

甚至，特朗普还喊出了“MIGA”（Make Iran Great Again）的口号，暗示伊朗当局应考虑政权更迭。

不得不说，商人出身的特朗普对于发动战争的心理压力远远小于拜登等政客，而其造成的严重后果，或许需要加密市场连同全世界的经济体系买单。

结语：短期市场修复仍看美方态度，目前处悲观态势

综合来看，加密市场的“山寨 G”早有端倪，而伊以冲突以及美国的直接下车无疑是这一结果的催化剂。而短期内的市场修复，仍然主要依赖于美方的后续表态及跟进，尤其是特朗普的发言与动作。

交易员 Eugene Ng Ah Sio 此前发文表示，已开启比特币和一些山寨币的多单，认为“美国的轰炸行动，加上霍尔木兹海峡的关闭”是一次对早期多头的连续打击，已经足够洗盘，现在正是“逢低买入”的时候。

但特朗普能否如图 4 月时那般“先发起关税贸易战，后发利好言论救市”，目前仍是个未知数。

或许，对于大多数人来说，有限做空是比无脑做多更具性价比的选择。

Пов'язані матеріали

Term Finance loses estimated $8.5M in vault governance exploit

Decentralized lending protocol Term Finance suffered an estimated $8.5 million loss due to a governance exploit targeting its strategy vaults. The attacker reportedly drained around 2,843 ETH and 1.68 million USDC by cheaply acquiring a majority of a sparsely held governance token and passing proposals to seize control. This represented approximately 68% of the vault's pre-attack holdings. Term Labs has irreversibly shut down all affected Meta Vaults, preventing further deposits while allowing withdrawals, and stated the core lending protocol remains unaffected. The company is coordinating with security teams on recovery efforts. This incident follows a previous oracle error in April 2025 that caused unintended liquidations.

cointelegraph7 хв тому

Term Finance loses estimated $8.5M in vault governance exploit

cointelegraph7 хв тому

19 New Decacorns in Half a Year: Why is the Primary Market Chasing 'Certainty'?

In the first half of 2026, China’s primary market saw a notable increase in unicorns, adding 19 new companies each valued over 100 billion RMB, particularly in sectors like embodied AI and large language models (LLMs). Firms such as Galaxy General, Zibian, and ZhiPingFang even surpassed 200 billion RMB valuations within months. Moonshot AI's valuation surged from around $10 billion to $35 billion by July 2026, with a pre-IPO target of $50 billion. This concentration of capital into a few "certain" sectors highlights a market shift. The driving force is not a general abundance of capital but a chase for "certainty"—primarily clearer exit pathways like imminent IPOs. Companies with defined public listing timelines attract intense investment despite higher valuations, as they reduce exit uncertainty for investors. Secondary market valuations of listed peers also serve as new anchors, boosting the perceived value of private companies in similar fields, though this creates dependency on public market sentiment. Another form of certainty comes from the expectation of rising valuations in subsequent funding rounds. The investment logic has shifted in some cases from assessing long-term fundamental value to betting on the next round attracting higher prices. This dynamic is also seen in deep-tech areas like nuclear fusion, where firms like NeoFusion secured a 10.6 billion RMB valuation despite early commercial stages, driven by scarcity and strategic bets. However, this trend signals a risk transfer: technical uncertainties remain but are temporarily masked by valuation inflation. As valuations climb—50 billion to 200 billion or 500 billion RMB—companies face increasing pressure to demonstrate real revenue, profit, and sustainable business models. The danger lies not in the rise of unicorns itself, but if valuations become detached from value creation and rely merely on the expectation of future funding or exits. Ultimately, the surge reflects investors seeking perceived safety in shorter-term exit certainty and transactional momentum, rather than a renewed appetite for risk. The true test will come when the market inevitably refocuses on fundamentals, questioning how many of today’s high valuations are backed by genuine economic value.

marsbit32 хв тому

19 New Decacorns in Half a Year: Why is the Primary Market Chasing 'Certainty'?

marsbit32 хв тому

Just Now, Sam Altman Blasts Dario Amodei as 'Anti-Human', Secret Model Exposed the Same Day

Just now, Sam Altman strongly criticized Dario (Amodei, co-founder of Anthropic), denouncing his "doomsday marketing" as "anti-human dictator rhetoric." This came alongside the accidental exposure of OpenAI's next-generation model, codenamed "gpt-nathree," hinting at the imminent release of GPT-6 Astra. The leak occurred when an OpenAI employee's public GitHub commit mentioned the codename. Combined with previous leaks of "gpt-mewfour," it suggests these are iterative checkpoints for OpenAI's upcoming agent model, Astra. Astra is known for multi-agent collaboration and long-duration task handling, having reportedly solved previously unsolved mathematical problems. Meanwhile, two new Anthropic model codenames, "claude-marshmallow-eap" and "claude-melon-eap," were also exposed but are believed to be iterations of the Claude 5 series, not a new flagship. In a wide-ranging podcast interview, Altman admitted he was wrong about the speed of AI-driven disruption, acknowledging societal inertia slows adoption. He fiercely criticized rivals' marketing that simultaneously promises immense benefits (like curing cancer) and warns of existential risk, calling it a dangerous "benevolent dictator" narrative that seeks to concentrate power. He emphasized that people are the ultimate purpose of AI. Altman also revealed OpenAI's unconventional, consensus-defying path: spending four and a half years in the "dark" without a public product before ChatGPT's breakthrough, driven by scaling laws rather than early customer feedback. He concluded that even with superintelligent AI, genuine human connection will remain irreplaceably valuable.

marsbit1 год тому

Just Now, Sam Altman Blasts Dario Amodei as 'Anti-Human', Secret Model Exposed the Same Day

marsbit1 год тому

Robinhood Chain's On-Chain Landscape Heats Up Again, $PONS Becomes the Cheapest High-Revenue Token

Robinhood Chain's token launchpad Pons ($PONS) has emerged as an outlier among high-revenue crypto tokens. According to Blockworks Research data, $PONS ranked 13th in revenue generation over the past 30 days, yet it holds the lowest FDV/revenue multiple at just 0.7x among the top 15 revenue-generating tokens. This stands in stark contrast to competitors like Pump.fun (7.7x), Aave (45.2x), and Chainlink (212.2x). Pons, often compared to pump.fun, is a non-custodial launchpad on Robinhood Chain. Its V2 upgrade introduced a bonding curve mechanism, with a portion of protocol fees directed to creators and the remainder constituting protocol revenue. Crucially, approximately 80% of this revenue is used to buy back and burn $PONS tokens, leading to a nearly 30% reduction in total supply to date. Despite this aggressive deflationary mechanism and significant revenue, the market prices $PONS conservatively. This skepticism stems from concerns over the quality and sustainability of its revenue, with some users questioning the potential impact of wash trading on reported figures. While supply continues to shrink, broader market recognition and a valuation multiple closer to peers will likely depend on sustained verification of genuine, high-quality protocol income.

marsbit1 год тому

Robinhood Chain's On-Chain Landscape Heats Up Again, $PONS Becomes the Cheapest High-Revenue Token

marsbit1 год тому

The 'Saving U.S. Treasuries' Baton Pass: Bessent Fumbled Last Week, This Week It's Wash's Turn

"Rescuing US Treasuries" Relay: After Bessent's Miss, All Eyes Are on Walsh Last week, US Treasury Secretary Bessent's announcement to at least double long-term Treasury buybacks failed to sustainably lower yields, which quickly rebounded. The market response saw a drop in the dollar alongside surges in gold and Bitcoin, interpreted as a "pressure release valve" for anxiety. The focus now shifts to Fed Chairman Walsh's upcoming Jackson Hole speech. Markets are highly sensitive to his message, seeking clarity on the Fed's policy response to stubborn inflation and worsening fiscal conditions. Analysts warn that a lack of new guidance could disappoint markets and worsen the sell-off in long-dated bonds. Analysts question the scale of Bessent's operations, noting they are too small relative to the overall debt market and do not constitute quantitative easing. A key issue is the Fed's massive holdings of long-term bonds, which distorts the market. With the Fed holding low-yielding short-term bonds that are losing money relative to its policy rate, discussion is growing around a potential Fed-led "Operation Twist." This would involve selling short-term bonds to buy long-term ones, aiming to lower long-end yields without expanding the balance sheet. The upcoming PCE inflation data will set the stage for Walsh's speech. However, the window for action is narrowing amid political pressures. A critical threshold is the 30-year yield at 5%; holding above it could increase stress on the dollar and leveraged sectors. Overall, the article suggests that without coordinated Fed action to anchor inflation expectations, Treasury interventions may ultimately fail, with investors increasingly looking to assets like gold as hedges.

marsbit1 год тому

The 'Saving U.S. Treasuries' Baton Pass: Bessent Fumbled Last Week, This Week It's Wash's Turn

marsbit1 год тому

Торгівля

Спот