合理估值 70 亿？PUMP 公售买到就是赚到？

链捕手Опубліковано о 2025-06-20Востаннє оновлено о 2025-06-21

原文：A Valuation of $PUMP

作者：Sunny Shi，Messari Crypto

编译：Alex Liu，Foresight News

据各大媒体援引知情人士消息，pump.fun 准备以 40 亿美元估值出售 25% 的 PUMP 代币以筹集 10 亿美元。这个价格有吸引力吗？Messari 的 Sunny Shi 为 PUMP 构建了一个估值模型，结果显示其 FDV（完全流通市值）可能达 70 亿美元。如果预测正确，则 PUMP 代币买到就是赚到。但有一个重要前提。以下是他们的估值过程（Sunny Shi 视角，「我们」指 Messari）：

无论你怎么看待迷因币（Memecoin），这个赛道依旧在持续「印钞」。尽管 pump.fun 发币平台的交易量相比年初有所下滑，但仍远高于 2024 年大部分时间的水平。

Pump.fun 的交易量高于 24 年的多数时间，数据：Messari

人们可能也低估了 PumpSwap 的成功。这个 DEX 在大约三个月前上线，但已经显著蚕食了 Raydium 在 Solana 上的市场份额。

PumpSwap 与 Raydium 的市场份额对比，数据：Messari

我们的估值方法采用自上而下（top-down）的模型，假设了加密市场整体交易量、Solana 占比、启动平台份额和 PumpSwap 市场份额。这些假设和模型仅对企业客户开放，但我会分享主要结论。

在我们的基本情景（base case）中，我们认为 Memecoin 会在更广泛的加密经济中占据一个细分市场，因为它们比 NFT 更适合投机用途。当然，Solana 生态随着成熟无疑会向新的资产对多元化发展，但这点也很可能成立。

我们认为，即使 pump.fun 在 Solana 生态内占据的份额略有下降，但 PumpSwap 持续增长，pump 项目仍然有望在未来两年内产生约 6.75 亿美元的收入。按 10 倍估值倍数计算，对应的 FDV 为约 70 亿美元。

然而，关键前提是：如果项目方选择一种不透明的代币 / 股权结构，将大部分收入分配给内部人士而非代币持有者，那我们认为当前市场已变得相当谨慎，不会忽视这种糟糕的价值积累方式。在我们的完整报告中，我们提供了估值表格，用于根据代币持有者能获取的收入百分比来评估 PUMP 的潜在价值。

无论市场最终如何判断，这都是一个参与史上最赚钱的加密应用的绝佳机会。现在就看项目团队是否给予代币持有者足够的参与价值（buy-in），使其成为一项值得投资的项目了。

编者注：在 Aevo 的盘前永续交易市场上，此刻 PUMP 的价格为 6 美元，对应 60 亿的 FDV（完全流通市值）。

PUMP 在 Aevo 上的盘前价格

原文链接

Трендові криптовалюти

CitreaCTR

wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT

Velodrome FinanceVELODROME

BrevisBREV

ZRX（0X）ZRX

PancakeSwapCAKE

Пов'язані матеріали

Valuation Rout of Old Titans: The Demise of a Generation's Asset Valuation Framework

"The Old Titans' Valuation Collapse: The Death of an Era's Valuation Framework" Between Alibaba's 2014 NYSE debut at $93.89 and its 2026 price of ~$95, twelve years have passed with zero price appreciation. This stagnation symbolizes a wholesale valuation reset for an entire generation of Chinese internet assets. Companies like Tencent, Pinduoduo, Meituan, Bilibili, and Kuaishou have seen catastrophic declines of 80-98% from their peaks. The core question arises: what framework now prices these companies, or has the framework itself expired? The valuation logic for Chinese internet stocks followed a clear "anchor-setting and anchor-removing" process. From 2014-2017, the dominant narrative was "US comparable discounting" – applying a growth premium and governance discount to US peers' multiples. This anchor loosened with the 2018 US-China trade war and the VIE structure risk, then was violently uprooted by the 2020-2021 regulatory crackdowns (Ant Group, Didi, anti-monopoly fines). The 2022 delisting panic and subsequent 2025-2026 geopolitical shocks (US military lists, AI espionage accusations) completed the demolition. The old "US对标打折" model is dead. However, this is not solely a China story. A structural mirror exists in US "old titan" stocks ("老登股"). In 2026, even Microsoft – with robust fundamentals – saw its PE compress from a 34x median to 22x, its worst performer status among the "Magnificent Seven" driven by a $190 billion annual AI capex crushing free cash flow. The core dilemma is universal: legacy platform giants, whether Alibaba or Microsoft, are spending colossal sums to chase an AI paradigm that may颠覆 their own high-margin, user/subscription-based business models. They have shifted from "companies defining the future" to "companies needing to prove they won't be淘汰ed by the future." This phenomenon of a dying valuation坐标系 has a historical precedent: post-1989 Japan. After its bubble burst, the "Japan premium" narrative ("most efficient manufacturing + perpetual growth") collapsed. A 25-year valuation vacuum ensued until Warren Buffett provided a new language in the 2010s: "low valuation + high dividend + governance reform." China's internet sector is now in a similar vacuum six years into its reset. While different from Japan's deflationary context, the parallel is clear: the old macro assumption of "deep integration with global capital" is falsified, but a new pricing framework is absent. Potential "new languages" for Chinese internet valuations are contradictory. AI transformation requires gutting profitable core businesses (e.g., Alibaba's ad-driven e-commerce) for an unproven consumption-based model, risking a Microsoft-like cash flow crunch. Alternatively, shareholder returns (buybacks/dividends) could build a floor, following Buffett's Japanese playbook, but current scales are insufficient to form a standalone anchor. The current state mirrors mid-1990s Japan: the old framework is dead, the new one unborn. The market waits in a vacuum for a重新定义ing force – a person, event, or proven business model shift – to answer "why buy." This may only be the middle phase of a prolonged re-rating.

marsbit2 хв тому

Valuation Rout of Old Titans: The Demise of a Generation's Asset Valuation Framework

marsbit2 хв тому

STRC Trading at Significant Discount, mNAV Falls Below Break-Even, Strategy's Valuation Logic Has Been Rewritten

Title: STRC Deeply Discounted, mNAV Falls Below Break-even, Strategy's Valuation Logic Redefined The recent volatility in MSTR and STRC highlights the need to reassess the core business model of Bitcoin reserve companies. These entities function more like leveraged, single-asset banks rather than software/tech firms. Consequently, they should be valued using banking metrics, not based on their total Bitcoin holdings. The key valuation metric is mNAV (market net asset value), akin to a price-to-book ratio. It compares the company's market capitalization to the equity value of its Bitcoin holdings after deducting all senior debt and preferred equity (like STRC). As of June 24, Strategy's mNAV was 1.10x. The focus should be on "net Bitcoin per share" (the Bitcoin claim per share after senior claims) and its growth rate, equivalent to a bank's book value and return on assets. Given STRC's 19% discount to its $100 par value (yielding 14.2%), issuing new MSTR equity at the current price to buy more Bitcoin is inefficient. It slightly dilutes the widely watched "total Bitcoin per share" metric while providing minimal improvement to the more critical "net Bitcoin per share." The article analyzes four potential uses for $1 billion in new equity: 1. **Buy Bitcoin:** Least effective. Improves net Bitcoin per share only marginally while diluting total Bitcoin per share. 2. **Repurchase STRC:** Most effective for balance sheet repair. The discount creates immediate value, increasing net Bitcoin per share by 1.0%, reducing debt burden, and lowering future dividend obligations. 3. **Boost Cash Reserves:** Dramatically improves the "cash coverage ratio" for STRC dividends from 9.8 months to 16.8 months, a crucial liquidity metric in a tightening funding environment. 4. **50/50 Split (STRC buyback & cash):** A balanced approach improving all key metrics. Strategy's own Q1 report indicates its internal break-even mNAV for profitable equity issuance to buy Bitcoin is 1.22x. With the current mNAV at 1.10x, such a move would be value-destructive. The core assumptions of its previous expansion model—issuing STRC at par and maintaining ample dividend coverage—have broken down. The recommended path is to use new capital to optimize core financial health: repurchasing discounted STRC and/or bolstering cash reserves. This would repair the balance sheet, signal liquidity strength, support STRC's price, lower its yield, and potentially reopen the par-value issuance channel. The current STRC discount represents a low-cost capital opportunity to restart this positive cycle. Bitcoin reserve companies must be evaluated as banks, focusing on book value, leverage, and liquidity resilience.

Foresight News3 хв тому

STRC Trading at Significant Discount, mNAV Falls Below Break-Even, Strategy's Valuation Logic Has Been Rewritten

Foresight News3 хв тому

Collector Crypt Rises as On-Chain 'Money Printer': Fewer Than 1,000 Daily Active Users, Whales Account for 97% of Revenue

The article discusses the rise of Collector Crypt, a tokenized trading card game (TCG) platform on Solana, which has recently entered the top 10 of the global crypto protocol revenue rankings. Despite having less than 1,000 daily active users, the platform generates significant income, with 97% of its revenue coming from a small group of high-net-worth "whale" users. Key points include the growth of the on-chain TCG sector, where Solana holds over 80% market share, and Collector Crypt's dominance within it. The platform's success is driven by a gacha-style card pack opening mechanism, the popularity of the Pokémon IP, and its CARDS token economic model, which includes buybacks funded by protocol revenue. However, the article notes challenges such as declining profit margins, high dependency on whale spending, and upcoming token unlocks that could increase market selling pressure. While Collector Crypt demonstrates the potential of on-chain TCGs, the sector is still in its early stages with room for growth in user base and infrastructure.

marsbit24 хв тому

Collector Crypt Rises as On-Chain 'Money Printer': Fewer Than 1,000 Daily Active Users, Whales Account for 97% of Revenue

marsbit24 хв тому

Dawn Song, The First Lady of Computer Security, Joins Meta

Computer security and AI safety pioneer Dawn Song has joined Meta's Superintelligence Labs as Vice President of AI Research, reporting to MSL head Nat Friedman. Song, a professor at UC Berkeley's EECS department and a MacArthur Fellow, is renowned for her foundational work in dynamic taint analysis and her leadership in adversarial machine learning and AI agent security. Her lab is considered a top training ground in computer security. Song is also a founder of Oasis Labs and Virtue AI, a company focused on enterprise AI safety infrastructure. Virtue AI co-founders Bo Li and Sanmi Koyejo, along with other team members, are also joining Meta, a move seen as strengthening Meta's safety measures for AI agents amid growing industry concerns. Separately, Denny Zhou, founder of Google's Gemini Reasoning Team and a key figure in advancing large language model reasoning techniques like Chain-of-Thought, reportedly joined Meta several months ago. These high-profile hires come as Meta seeks to deploy AI across its products while assuring regulators and the public of its models' robustness against misuse.

marsbit55 хв тому

Dawn Song, The First Lady of Computer Security, Joins Meta

marsbit55 хв тому

South Korean Institutions' Crypto Race: Dual Explosion of Stablecoins and RWA

**Summary: South Korea's Institutional Crypto Race: Stablecoins and RWA Take Off** South Korea is undergoing a structural shift in its crypto ecosystem, moving beyond its historical role as a major retail trading hub. Major financial institutions and internet platforms are now building institutional-grade blockchain infrastructure, with stablecoins and Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization as the primary drivers. The push for a regulated Korean won stablecoin market is a major policy and corporate focus. This is driven partly by an estimated $115 billion outflow into dollar stablecoins like USDC, threatening the domestic financial system. Banks (e.g., KB Financial, Hana), payment giants (e.g., Shinhan Card, BC Card), and internet super-apps (KakaoPay, NAVER Pay) are all conducting pilots. The goal is to anchor future digital finance to the Korean won and local regulations. In RWA, South Korea is advancing rapidly within regulatory sandboxes, focusing on unique domestic assets beyond typical global templates like US Treasuries. Projects involve tokenizing ships (with Hyundai Heavy Industries), defense supply chain assets, and K-pop intellectual property, alongside more conventional assets. A legal framework is set for 2027, and platforms like NXT are preparing for regulated trading. Key opportunities for crypto-native projects lie in providing the underlying technology these traditional institutions lack: global distribution channels for tokenized assets, cross-chain liquidity solutions, and enabling infrastructure tools (e.g., for asset packaging and management). Partnerships, such as Solana with Shinhan Card or LayerZero with the Korea Gold Exchange, exemplify this proactive approach. Crucially, user access is being shaped by consumer platforms. NAVER's planned acquisition of Upbit's operator Dunamu and Kakao's development of a unified wallet aim to seamlessly integrate crypto with everyday payments for tens of millions of users. The race is now about which protocols and projects will become the foundational standards as regulation solidifies and institutional adoption accelerates.

Foresight News1 год тому

South Korean Institutions' Crypto Race: Dual Explosion of Stablecoins and RWA

Foresight News1 год тому

Торгівля

Спот

Популярні статті

Що таке NASDAQ100

Індекс Nasdaq-100 включає 100 найбільших нефінансових компаній, які котируються на фондовому ринку Nasdaq, і широко використовується як еталон для акцій великих компаній зростання та технологічних акцій у США.

44 переглядів усьогоОпубліковано 2026.06.18Оновлено 2026.06.18

Як купити NASDAQ100

Ласкаво просимо до HTX.com! Ми зробили покупку Nasdaq-100 Index (NASDAQ100) простою та зручною. Дотримуйтесь нашої покрокової інструкції, щоб розпочати свою криптовалютну подорож.Крок 1: Створіть обліковий запис на HTXВикористовуйте свою електронну пошту або номер телефону, щоб зареєструвати обліковий запис на HTX безплатно. Пройдіть безпроблемну реєстрацію й отримайте доступ до всіх функцій.ЗареєструватисьКрок 2: Перейдіть до розділу Купити крипту і виберіть спосіб оплатиКредитна/дебетова картка: використовуйте вашу картку Visa або Mastercard, щоб миттєво купити Nasdaq-100 Index (NASDAQ100).Баланс: використовуйте кошти з балансу вашого рахунку HTX для безперешкодної торгівлі.Треті особи: ми додали популярні способи оплати, такі як Google Pay та Apple Pay, щоб підвищити зручність.P2P: Торгуйте безпосередньо з іншими користувачами на HTX.Позабіржова торгівля (OTC): ми пропонуємо індивідуальні послуги та конкурентні обмінні курси для трейдерів.Крок 3: Зберігайте свої Nasdaq-100 Index (NASDAQ100)Після придбання Nasdaq-100 Index (NASDAQ100) збережіть його у своєму обліковому записі на HTX. Крім того, ви можете відправити його в інше місце за допомогою блокчейн-переказу або використовувати його для торгівлі іншими криптовалютами.Крок 4: Торгівля Nasdaq-100 Index (NASDAQ100)Легко торгуйте Nasdaq-100 Index (NASDAQ100) на спотовому ринку HTX. Просто увійдіть до свого облікового запису, виберіть торгову пару, укладайте угоди та спостерігайте за ними в режимі реального часу. Ми пропонуємо зручний досвід як для початківців, так і для досвідчених трейдерів.

19 переглядів усьогоОпубліковано 2026.06.18Оновлено 2026.06.18

Що таке RE

I. Вступ до проекту Re Protocol - це капітальний ринок на блокчейні, який з'єднує капітал стейблкоїнів з повністю забезпеченим, регульованим перестрахуванням. Перестрахування дозволяє страхових компаніям передавати частини своїх ризиків іншим спеціалізованим страховикам, допомагаючи їм поглинати великі збитки та продовжувати надавати покриття. II. Інформація про токен Назва токена: RE(Re) III. Пов'язані посилання Вебсайт：https://re.xyz/ Експлорери：https://bscscan.com/token/0xd41fdb03ba84762dd66a0af1a6c8540ff1ba5dfb https://etherscan.io/token/0x526526528f35ac738177003b8773b402b8df8143 Twitter：https://twitter.com/re Примітка: Вступ до проекту взято з матеріалів, опублікованих або наданих офіційною командою проекту, які є лише для довідки і не є інвестиційною порадою. HTX не несе відповідальності за будь-які прямі або непрямі збитки, що виникають внаслідок цього.

179 переглядів усьогоОпубліковано 2026.06.18Оновлено 2026.06.18

Обговорення

Ласкаво просимо до спільноти HTX. Тут ви можете бути в курсі останніх подій розвитку платформи та отримати доступ до професійної ринкової інформації. Нижче представлені думки користувачів щодо ціни A (A).