Metrics Ventures市场观察：市场完成了资产价格的极限测试

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2025-04-15Востаннє оновлено о 2025-04-15

Анотація

此时此刻，恰如彼时彼刻。

加密市场二级基金 Metrics Ventures 4 月市场观察

1/ 过去的一周即便在整个美元资产历史上都值得纪念，从美元资产价格来说，这大概率只是一次对牛熊关键支撑考验的扰动，但在整个东升西落的进程上，这次关税的全过程将成为一次重大的拐点。

2/ 我们在上月提到，MSTR、BTC 调整都非常良性，新周期比特币低波动率特征显现无疑，因此我们依然看好 MSTR 及 BTC 在今年年内的行情， 75, 000 的关键支撑位出现了天量需求，伴随着大量底背离信号，与美元资产的触底反弹形成了共振，将形成一段至少周线级别的行情。

3/ 时政并不是我们从来在公开月报上讨论的内容范围，尽管这是我们交易框架中“大胆假设”的重要部分，但站在这个史诗级周度的周末，我想过度悲观近几个月潜在的进一步美元扰动是多虑的，从价格角度上来说，市场大概率已经通过了极限测试。

市场总体行情与市场走势的盘点和点评

单纯的市场方面，技术分析上我们只想进一步强调，在刚刚经历的这一轮市场强分歧中，美元风险资产都在相对充分的调整位置/熊市临界支撑位放出了天量，在七姐妹批量破位的情况下，MSTR 和 BTC 走势是明显的强势反馈。同时，我们注意到以下的背离现象： 

①比特币价格与合约持仓的明显背离（Coinglass 数据）：

Metrics Ventures市场观察：市场完成了资产价格的极限测试

②比特币自身 MACD 和 RSI 的背离：

Metrics Ventures市场观察：市场完成了资产价格的极限测试

因此，整体上我们认为极限测试位置即为近期低点。

经历了前次行情高潮后，MSTR 仍然能稳定每日位居美股成交额前十左右，我们认为这亦是遵循了 24 年 10 月我们在专题报告中提到的资金盘成立假设，未来预计还将源源不断地与 GME 等新加入 BTC 资金盘的资产从美股吸取流动性反哺比特币，这一模式与 20 年前开始的东方地产股玩法异曲同工。

人民币资产也经历了肉眼可预见的极限测试，也让我们在 24 年底开始诉说的军事、制造、科技及人口结构等东升西落事实被更多人了解。此刻，上证指数依然在二次跳空缺口上方盘整，随着后续货币政策的东西方同步宽松，料将有更多投资者发现东方经济在近年来发生的消费品牌升级、芯片突破等诸多趋势，而关税事件虽然在资产价格上可以看做一次冲击，但在东升西落大趋势上将成为多年后明确的加速事件。

最后，在市场情绪渐渐平复，VIX 逐渐回落的前夕，我们想说，此时此刻，对于货币稳定性、主权稳定性、金融稳定性和资产安全性的担忧，正是近 20 年前比特币诞生时预设的场景。曾经怀揣的愿景不会因为定价权的转移而转移，但初心是否还在，也将在 2025 年-2026 年真正的显露。

此时此刻，恰如彼时彼刻。

Metrics Ventures市场观察：市场完成了资产价格的极限测试

关于我们

Metrics Ventures 是数据和研究驱动的加密资产二级市场流动性基金，由经验丰富的加密专业人士团队领导。 该团队拥有一级市场孵化和二级市场交易方面的专业知识，并通过深入的链上/链下数据分析在行业发展中发挥积极作用。 MVC 与加密社区资深影响力人物合作，可以为项目提供长期赋能能力支持，如媒体和 KOL 资源、生态协作资源、项目策略、经济模型咨询能力等。

欢迎大家 DM，一起分享和探讨关于加密资产的市场与投资的见解和想法。

我们的研究内容会同步发布在 Twitter 和 Notion，欢迎关注：

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