ФРС тормозит снижение ставок: причины и влияние политики Трампа

cryptonews.ruОпубліковано о 2024-10-09Востаннє оновлено о 2025-01-09

Федеральная резервная система США отказалась от планов снижения процентных ставок, ссылаясь на высокую инфляцию и неопределенность, связанную с экономической политикой администрации Дональда Трампа. В протоколах заседания за декабрь подчеркивается, что торговая и миграционная повестка нового президента вызывает особую озабоченность среди членов ФРС.

В протоколах декабрьского заседания ФРС сказано, что новые инициативы администрации вызывают вопросы. Торговая и миграционная политика Трампа представляют риски для экономики. Хотя его имя напрямую не звучало, влияние очевидно.

Инфляция снижается, но расслабляться рано

Инфляция начала замедляться, но текущие показатели все еще слишком высоки. Общая инфляция (PCE) в октябре составила 2,3 процента. Год назад этот показатель был 3 процента. Базовая инфляция держится на уровне 2,8 процента. В ноябре CPI вырос до 2,7 процента, а базовый CPI достиг 3,3 процента.

Цены в сфере услуг падают медленно. Это главный тормоз на пути к снижению инфляции.

Рынок труда. Зарплаты растут, но проблемы остаются

В ноябре уровень безработицы увеличился до 4,2 процента. Темпы создания новых рабочих мест замедлились. Однако есть и позитивные стороны — зарплаты растут, годовой прирост составил 4 процента. Это указывает на стабильный спрос на труд.

Экономика США сильна. Мир сталкивается с трудностями

Американская экономика сохраняет стабильность. Ее поддерживают потребители и частные инвестиции. Но в других странах все сложнее. Так например рост экономики замедлился в Еврозоне и Мексике. В Китае наблюдается слабый внутренний спрос, несмотря на успехи в технологиях. А в Латинской Америке, особенно в Бразилии, инфляция продолжает расти из-за слабой валюты.

Рынки и заемщики под давлением

Американские рынки постепенно адаптировались к решениям ФРС, хотя заемщики все еще сталкиваются с трудностями. Ипотечные ставки остаются на высоком уровне, а автокредиты близки к рекордным значениям. Малый бизнес испытывает давление из-за жестких условий кредитования и снижения объемов новых займов.

ФРС заняла выжидательную позицию: инфляция продолжает снижаться, но медленными темпами. При этом неопределенность усиливается на фоне экономической политики администрации Трампа.

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