Alpha早报|9月6日你需要知道的所有市场动向及资讯

区块律动Опубліковано о 2006-09-24Востаннє оновлено о 2024-09-06

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New Fire Group Chief Economist Fu Peng's Latest Speech: Crypto Assets Deeply Bound to Liquidity, Global Assets 'Shrink Circle' with Widening Divergence

The chief economist of Sinovation Group delivered a speech at Wiki Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2026, analyzing the global market through the lens of liquidity. He argues that all major assets, including cryptocurrencies, are fundamentally tied to global liquidity, which is now shifting from an era of extreme post-2008 ease to sustained tightening under new Fed leadership. This marks the end of widespread "asset flooding" and ushers in a "shrinking circle" dynamic: capital is abandoning speculative, low-quality assets and concentrating in a few high-conviction, value-driven core holdings. The only dominant global investment theme is AI, viewed as a 20-25 year productivity cycle. However, a critical inflection point has been reached in Q2, where major tech firms' free cash flow has turned negative. The market narrative has pivoted from rewarding pure capital expenditure growth to demanding proof of future revenue generation and returns. While the AI super-cycle's long-term thesis remains intact, the initial hardware-driven phase (e.g., Nvidia, memory chips) is maturing. The speaker warns of significant volatility risk not from industry fundamentals, but from excessive financial leverage built up in these "certain" assets. He emphasizes that investment strategy must evolve from broad diversification to focused, cyclical allocation within the AI value chain (upstream hardware, midstream, downstream applications), avoiding blind long-term holds on single names. For crypto, this liquidity paradigm shift means the era of speculative "air coin" mania is over; the market is maturing, with institutional participation increasing and volatility stabilizing for core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The core takeaway is that understanding the top-down liquidity framework is essential for navigating the current era of market分化 and focused capital allocation.

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New Fire Group Chief Economist Fu Peng's Latest Speech: Crypto Assets Deeply Bound to Liquidity, Global Assets 'Shrink Circle' with Widening Divergence

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4 Hours, 118 Responses: Liang Wenfeng’s Internal Q&A Addresses Everything

**DeepSeek Founder Liang Wenfeng's Candid Reflections on the Company's Path to AGI** DeepSeek has recently completed its first external funding round, raising over 500 billion RMB (approx. $74B) at a pre-money valuation of 3.675 trillion RMB ($543B). Founder Liang Wenfeng personally invested 200 billion RMB. This marks a strategic shift from its initial "no financing, no IPO, no commercialization" principle. In a recent investor Q&A, Liang articulated DeepSeek's core philosophy and roadmap. The company is driven by a powerful, unwritten vision for beneficial AGI rather than pure commercial maximization. He emphasizes "strategic restraint"—avoiding unnecessary conflicts, prioritizing long-term AGI success over short-term gains, and maintaining an open, cooperative stance even with competitors. Liang outlined the AGI technical roadmap: current focus on Agent capabilities, followed by solving "continual learning," which he sees as the key to unlocking models that can learn and adapt like humans. This could lead to a gradual "singularity" where AI accelerates its own research, and eventually to embodied intelligence. DeepSeek will strictly focus on this "AGI mainline," avoiding distractions like video generation which, while commercially viable, don't directly advance core intelligence. He identifies team stability as the single most critical factor for success, now bolstered by the recent funding. While talent is not a bottleneck, the primary constraint compared to the US is compute resources. Liang is optimistic about domestic AI chips, stating that Nvidia's CUDA moat is eroding and that within a year, the viability of the Chinese chip ecosystem will be proven, with Huawei's offerings being key. The main issue is production capacity. On competition, Liang believes the final differentiators will be cost, time-to-market, and user experience. He foresees Chinese companies playing a major role by offering systematically lower-cost AI services globally. DeepSeek's commercialization strategy involves offering API services at a "reasonable profit" and focusing on coding Agents. He remains committed to open-sourcing even their strongest models, seeing no downside as the barriers to effective deployment remain high. The company operates with a unique dual management structure combining top-down direction with significant bottom-up, unstructured research time for employees. Data quality and post-training are identified as major current challenges, with half of core researchers involved in data labeling efforts. Liang concludes that DeepSeek aims to be one of several trillion-dollar companies in the AI era, achieved through extreme focus on its chosen path.

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4 Hours, 118 Responses: Liang Wenfeng’s Internal Q&A Addresses Everything

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After Three Consecutive Quarters of Decline, Can the Crypto Market Find a Window for Stabilization in Q3?

The cryptocurrency market has just concluded its worst-performing quarter since 2022, with total capitalization dropping 12.6% to $2.1 trillion. All core metrics indicate capital is leaving the sector, not just rotating within it. Bitcoin fell 14.2% and Ethereum dropped 25.4% in Q2, breaking their previous correlation with US tech stocks. A key driver is the reversal in US spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which saw a net outflow of approximately $4.67 billion in Q2, including a record monthly outflow near $4.5 billion in June. While recent data suggests long-term holders are accumulating again, sustained ETF outflows mean continued selling pressure. Market focus is now singularly on the Federal Reserve. The upcoming July FOMC meeting is seen as the most critical event for Q3. A dovish signal could support Bitcoin reclaiming a $68,000-$84,000 range, while a hawkish stance might establish a new trading band around $50,000-$56,000. Additionally, regulatory uncertainty persists, with the progress of the crucial *CLARITY Act* stalling in the Senate, reducing its perceived 2026 passage probability to 40-45%. Despite the broad downturn, a few sectors showed growth. Prediction markets saw nominal volume surge 48.7% year-over-year to $113.8 billion, and tokenized collectibles transaction volume rose 143% quarterly to $1.4 billion. The Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization sector also continued steady growth, now representing ~$28.1 billion in on-chain value. The market's foundation for an extreme crash appears limited, with Bitcoin price hovering near its 200-week moving average. However, the trading paradigm has shifted from narrative-driven speculation to decisions based on price action, policy developments, and interest rate expectations, making a broad sentiment-driven rally unlikely in the near term.

marsbitВчора 08:36

After Three Consecutive Quarters of Decline, Can the Crypto Market Find a Window for Stabilization in Q3?

marsbitВчора 08:36

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