如何拥有花不完的钱？

链捕手Опубліковано о 2024-08-14Востаннє оновлено о 2024-08-14

作者：Alex Liu，Foresight News

 

声明：本文观点仅在一定条件和语境下成立。

  1. 钱花不完：在无需劳动的情况下，可支配法定货币随着时间逐渐增加。
  2. 前置条件：
  • 比特币作为「数字黄金」对冲通胀的逻辑长期成立，即虽有价格波动，在较长时间尺度下比特币会相对信用货币升值。
  • 不发生改变社会运行逻辑的黑天鹅事件。

花不完的钱

提到「花钱」，大家脑海中的默认概念还是「消费法币」。小编也只会给老板发：「明天疯狂星期四，能 V 我 50 吗？」，而不会发「明天疯狂星期四，能 V 我 50 BTC 吗？」；一是怕被打，二是国内的 KFC 也确实尚不支持 BTC 付款。

比特币的「数字现金」叙事并没有跑通。曾有人问知名比特币大多头、MicroStrategy 首席执行官 Micheal Saylor：「为何很少有人用一点比特币去换一杯咖啡？」Saylor 回复到：「你拥有一栋大楼的话，你会用大楼的一角去换一杯咖啡吗？」这有些诡辩的意思了，仅持有比特币，在日常生活中「花钱」的确是不方便的。

但 BTC 作为「数字黄金」，一种存储价值的资产（Store of Value Asset）的叙事未被证伪。通过比特币，或许我们真能拥有「花不完的钱」—— 若它对冲通胀的逻辑长期成立，那一定会在较长时间尺度下相对信用货币（法定货币）升值。我们只需简单持有 BTC，它所对应的法币价值最终一定会逐渐上涨。不用劳动，美美躺平。

但前文说「花比特币」并不方便，而无论是花掉还是卖掉，比特币的数量总是会逐渐减少的，又谈何「花不完呢」？

答案是抵押借贷。

抵押借贷

若存在资产 A 相对资产 B 一直升值，那么抵押资产 A 借出资产 B，随时间推移，理论上可以源源不断借出资产 B。不必出售 A，也不必偿还 B。

放在具体案例中，抵押 BTC 借出法币（或 USDT、USDC 之类的稳定币），由于信用货币天然具有滥发、长期贬值趋势，则 BTC 会相对信用货币逐渐升值（即本文成立的前提），在此过程中逐渐借出更多的法币，则我们得以在不出售 BTC 、不用劳动的情况下，可支配的法定货币随时间逐渐增加，即「拥有花不完的钱」。

但此处存在一个问题，抵押借贷是有「清算风险」的。BTC 相对信用货币升值是长线趋势，但在短期依然存在着价格波动，即便抛开「插针」等事件不谈，从一轮周期的高点到低点往往也有 50 % 甚至 70 % 以上的振幅。

被清算，相当于被迫在低价卖出 BTC 换回法币偿还债务，「钱花不完」的尝试又失败了。同时由于行情波动剧烈，有可能出现一根 k 线砸到清算价以下导致清算，而后币价快速拉回，给借贷者造成巨额损失的情况。

避免清算的一个方法是保持极低的 LTV（Loan to Value），如抵押价值 100 万美元的 BTC 只借出 30 万美元，几乎可以免于短期价格波动导致的清算。但一方面不存在「绝对的保险」，另一方面这样做的资金利用率未免太低。

那该怎么做呢？

软清算

可以使用软清算机制的借贷来避免短期币价波动导致我们失去 BTC 仓位。以抵押 BTC 借出 crvUSD 为例：

在 Curve Finance 的 crvUSD 产品中，抵押品的清算是通过 AMM 进行的，并且是以渐进式的软清算方式，抵押品会随价格下跌逐渐清算。但 AMM 中的清算是可逆的，在抵押品价格上涨后，AMM 会帮助用户买回资产。

清算 AMM

crvUSD 通过 LLAMMA（Lending-Liquidating AMM Algorithm）实现软清算，为抵押资产设计了一个特殊的 AMM 池，实现在资产价格下跌时逐渐清算。其中的清算线有两个，分别是清算开始价格和清算终止价格。在抵押资产高于清算价格时，AMM 池中全是抵押品。抵押品价格下跌至清算开始价格时，AMM 中的抵押品开始被卖出换成稳定币，之后在价格下跌过程中抵押品被逐渐卖出。在抵押品价格跌至清算终止价格之下时，AMM 中只剩下稳定币。

LLAMMA 的清算过程可以理解为一个「反向的 Uniswap V3」。假设 AMM 要处理的是 BTC-crvUSD 交易对，在 Uniswap V3 中，流动性提供者（LP）需要设置 BTC 的价格区间。当 BTC 的价格处于区间之内时，AMM 中有两种可以互相兑换的 Token，在价格区间之外时，AMM 池中只有一种 Token，这也是 LLAMMA 清算开始价格和结束价格的设计思路。当抵押品是 BTC 时，价格高于区间 AMM 池中全部为 BTC，在价格区间之内时 BTC 逐渐被清算为 USD，见图。

和 Uniswap V3 的不同之处是，Uni V3 中 BTC 价格越高，AMM 池中的 USD 的数量越多。而在 LLAMMA 中，BTC 价格越低时，AMM 池中 USD 的数量越多，因为需要卖出 BTC 用于清算。BTC 价格升高时，还可以买回 BTC 抵押资产，尽量保证用户的敞口不变。

在软清算的机制下，即使清算发生，我们会在价格涨回过程中以和卖出几乎相同的价格买回抵押品，保证仓位的几乎不变。而由于在较长时间尺度下比特币会相对信用货币升值这一前提，被清算必然在未来涨回。（软清算由外部套利者发动，借贷者会有相对硬清算极少的损失，需避免频繁落入清算区间。这里也体现出与 Uni v3 相反的设计哲学：LP 希望价格尽量多落在区间内收获费用，借贷者希望价格尽量少落在区间内减少损失。）

到此逻辑闭环：持有比特币并使用软清算机制进行法币借贷，比特币升值过程中我们能获得持续的现金流，无需出售比特币或担心短期价格波动造成的清算将这一切搞砸。在持有一定比特币的情况下，无需劳动而可支配的法定货币随时间逐渐增加。这算不算是拥有了「花不完的钱」？

结语

本文介绍了一种投资与消费的策略，即保证 BTC 仓位的同时通过借贷策略拥有持续的现金流，并介绍了使用软清算机制的优势。若持有大量 BTC，本方案具备实操性，或许真是让人不用劳动，美美躺平的最佳策略之一。但本方案也有一个缺陷，让像作者一样的同学无法躺平，只能苦苦打工 —— 没有指出足够躺平的 BTC 该上哪儿领 ......

于是小编决定突破自己，毅然拿出手机，给老板发到「明天疯狂星期四，能 V 我 50 BTC 吗？」，喜提拉黑。

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