Odaily编辑部投资操作全记录（8月12日）

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2024-08-12Востаннє оновлено о 2024-08-12

Анотація

坐等（埋伏）明早“马斯克对话特朗普”搅动Meme市场；多空双开期权哥又晒单了。

本新栏目为 Odaily 编辑部成员真实投资经历分享，不接受任何商务广告，不构成投资建议（因为本司同事都很擅长亏钱），旨在为读者扩充视角、丰富信源，欢迎加入 Odaily 社群（微信@Odaily 2018 ，Telegram 交流群，X 官方账号）交流吐槽。

Odaily编辑部投资操作全记录（8月12日）

推荐人：南枳（X：@Assassin_Malvo）

简介：链上玩家，数据分析师，除了 NFT 什么都玩

分享：

  1. SOL 周六出掉一半，持 U 等下跌，做空了 WIF。

  2. 特朗普时隔一年再次发文，头部相关 Meme 市值 200 万美元。（同时再次凸显了 ETH 和 SOL 的 Meme 持续性和强弱）。重点关注明早的 Musk 对话特朗普。

推荐人：秦晓峰（X：@QinXiaofeng 888 ）

简介：期权疯狗，Meme 接盘侠

分享：从上周开始，行情波动变大。操作方面，上周后半周继续期权多空双开，但是看涨期权没拿住，没吃到太多利润，基本小打小闹。昨天继续多空双开，单边看跌赚了 5 倍，综合收益 1 倍多（覆盖看涨成本）。目前不好判断方向到底是直接向上还是向下，预判接下来一周还会进行宽幅震荡，建议继续多空双开。

Odaily编辑部投资操作全记录（8月12日）

推荐人：Wenser（X：@wenser 2010 ）

简介：小布丁雪糕爱好者，Meme 跑得快选手

分享：

  1. 哈里斯 7 月竞选资金募资 3.1 亿美元，宣布副总统人选 Walz 后 24 小时募资 3600 万美元，最近势头很猛，而且加密货币人群也主要在民主党选区，所以最近 PolyMarket 上面预测胜率涨到了 52% ，如果真的当选，作为美国历史上第一个女总统绝对会成为爆点，还是老样子，分别买入 KAMA、Walz、HARRIS 等哈里斯概念 Meme 币各 10 U。

  2. 剩下的感觉除了 PVP 玩不了什么了，MAX 还在拿着，等一个反弹；ENS 依然垃圾；其他的暂时不看了。

往期记录

8 月 9 日

8 月 7 日

8 月 5 日

推荐阅读

Arthur Hayes 新文：日元套利交易终结，如何影响美股与加密市场？

数据透视六大做市商“ 85 ”暴跌前后操作

Пов'язані матеріали

Borrowed Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Flows Are Real Money

"Rented Faith: How Much of Bitcoin ETF Flows Are Real Money?" Bitcoin ETF inflows are often seen as a barometer of institutional conviction. However, week-to-week analysis reveals they are primarily driven by a hidden arbitrage trade rather than directional bullishness. This is the cash-and-carry trade: buying the ETF while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin futures on the CME to lock in the price difference (basis). This delta-neutral activity registers as ETF inflows but reflects a rate-seeking, not price-betting, strategy. Data shows weekly ETF flow volatility is closely tied to hedge fund ("leveraged funds") short positions on CME futures, with a correlation of 0.70. About half of weekly flow variation can be explained by this single factor. In contrast, Bitcoin's weekly price changes have no statistically significant power to predict flows. Crucially, while this arbitrage trade dominates weekly *fluctuations*, it is not the main component of the cumulative *stock*. Of the ~$55 billion total net inflow, the estimated net arbitrage position is only about $1 billion. The vast majority is steady, directional buying averaging ~$400 million per week. Thus, ETF flows overstate the *volatility* of belief, not its *level*. The "rented" arbitrage capital churns, while "owned" directional capital forms the bedrock. This arbitrage trade has been unwinding for two years, with hedge fund shorts peaking at ~$14 billion in late 2024 and falling to ~$4.5 billion. Recent outflows align with basis compression, signaling the trade's exit, not a loss of faith. For Ethereum ETFs, the same dynamic is weaker due to negative carry from forgone staking yield. The key takeaway: To interpret ETF flows, watch the basis vs. Treasury yields and CME hedge fund net shorts. They reveal how much of the weekly "demand" headline is driven by rented, rate-seeking capital versus real conviction.

链捕手4 хв тому

Borrowed Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Flows Are Real Money

链捕手4 хв тому

Bernstein Research Report Analysis: HBM Prices Must Double Next Year, Memory Becomes a Burden for AI

Bernstein's report indicates that High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) prices must double (increase 2-2.5x) in 2027. This is because, while standard DRAM prices have surged approximately 4.5x, HBM prices remain locked in annual contracts, making standard DRAM significantly more profitable per wafer for memory makers (2x the revenue, nearly 3x the gross profit). To maintain capacity allocation for HBM, its price must rise sharply. A critical consequence is that HBM is sold packaged within Nvidia GPUs. To protect its 75% gross margin, Nvidia is likely to pass on HBM cost increases by raising GPU/system prices by about 4x the HBM cost hike. Combined with standard DRAM and NAND price increases, this could raise total AI capital expenditure for cloud providers by around 30%. The report maintains Outperform ratings on Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, significantly raising price targets due to expected upward earnings revisions. KIOXIA is the main loser, having no HBM exposure. MediaTek could benefit if cloud providers seek more ASIC-based alternatives to avoid Nvidia's markup. Valuations have shifted to a P/E basis, reflecting record-high profitability and cash generation expected in this cycle.

marsbit16 хв тому

Bernstein Research Report Analysis: HBM Prices Must Double Next Year, Memory Becomes a Burden for AI

marsbit16 хв тому

The 'Crisis Helmsman' of Financial Markets Passes Away: Reflecting on Greenspan's Federal Reserve Career

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, known as the 'crisis helmsman' of financial markets, has passed away at 100. His nearly 19-year tenure spanned four presidencies, from the 1987 stock market crash to the internet boom. Initially hailed as the 'Maestro' for his crisis management—famously intervening after Black Monday and during the LTCM collapse—his legacy became intertwined with the 2008 financial crisis. His market-friendly philosophy and the "Greenspan Put," an expectation of Fed support during downturns, were praised for fostering stability and growth in the 1990s but later criticized for encouraging excessive risk-taking and contributing to the housing bubble. Greenspan's career encapsulates the central debate of his era: whether markets can self-correct and if central banks should actively deflate asset bubbles. His passing reignites questions about the fine line between stabilizing markets and inadvertently sowing the seeds for the next crisis.

marsbit20 хв тому

The 'Crisis Helmsman' of Financial Markets Passes Away: Reflecting on Greenspan's Federal Reserve Career

marsbit20 хв тому

Two Giants' Credit Expansion: Loan Balances of $9.9 Billion vs. $14.6 Billion, Brazil Emerges as the Main Battlefield

Title: Two Giants "Credit" Surge: Loan Balances of 99 Billion vs. 146 Billion USD, Brazil Emerges as Main Battlefield Summary: The article compares the rapid expansion of credit businesses by two major e-commerce and fintech players, Sea (via Monee) and Mercado Libre (via Mercado Pago), in overseas markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America, contrasting with a slowing domestic Chinese credit market. Using Q1 2026 financial data, it highlights their significant growth. Sea's Monee reached a loan balance of $99 billion, up 71% year-over-year (YoY), contributing 17.5% to Sea's total revenue. Mercado Pago's loan balance hit $146 billion, up 87% YoY, contributing 45% to its parent company's revenue. Both maintained stable risk metrics (e.g., Monee's 90+ day NPL at 1.1%) despite rapid scaling. Brazil is identified as a key and accelerating growth market for both. Sea's Brazilian operations saw loan volumes exceed $10 billion, growing 250% YoY, with SPayLater GMV penetration still low (~10%) indicating high potential. Sea also secured a key Brazilian financial credit license (SCFI). Mercado Libre's Brazil segment contributed over half (54%) of total group revenue, with its credit business there generating $11.24 billion in revenue, up 89% YoY and accounting for 12.7% of global revenue. Mercado Pago's credit portfolio, especially credit cards (46% of loans, +105% YoY), is a strategic focus, described as crucial as building logistics was a decade ago. Its net interest margin after loss (NIMAL) remains high at 17.8%. The article concludes that while Brazil presents immense opportunities, the success is largely driven by these integrated "e-commerce + fintech" giants with proprietary transaction data and ecosystems, making it challenging for standalone fintech players to compete effectively.

链捕手25 хв тому

Two Giants' Credit Expansion: Loan Balances of $9.9 Billion vs. $14.6 Billion, Brazil Emerges as the Main Battlefield

链捕手25 хв тому

Research Report Analysis: Is Intel Making a Comeback with Apple? Bernstein's Calculations Show the Right Direction, but the Price Is Already Overvalued

Bernstein analyst Stacy A. Rasgon published a report on June 18 regarding Intel, assessing the potential impact of recent political support for a US-based PC chip design and manufacturing collaboration between Apple and Intel. The report views this as a significant signal for the foundry landscape shift but concludes the initial financial contribution would be minimal. Key conclusions: 1) An Apple deal is seen as a small-scale "proof of concept." Even if Intel wins 40% of Apple's premium notebook chip orders (~5 million units/year), Bernstein estimates it would generate only about $500M in annual revenue and ~$0.03 EPS, negligible against Intel's ~$55B revenue. 2) Political encouragement is not equivalent to enforceable mandates. Winning orders ultimately depends on Intel demonstrating competitive technology (like its 18A node), cost, and reliable supply. 3) The path from validation to large-scale production involves significant challenges, capital investment, and time. Due to these uncertainties, Bernstein maintains a Market-Perform (Hold) rating with a $100 price target, implying potential downside from the ~$121.10 price at the report date. The analysis highlights the tension between near-term validation value—serving as a crucial trust signal for Intel's foundry ambitions and US supply chain resilience—and the long-term opportunity to attract larger cloud and AI chip customers. The investment thesis hinges on successful 18A execution and sustained policy support, not on immediate financial gains from Apple.

marsbit50 хв тому

Research Report Analysis: Is Intel Making a Comeback with Apple? Bernstein's Calculations Show the Right Direction, but the Price Is Already Overvalued

marsbit50 хв тому

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