Trapped Below Market Mean
The market encountered strong resistance at the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and True Market Mean near $78k-$79k, a textbook rejection in the ongoing bear market. The failure to break through this zone, driven by aggressive profit-taking from recent buyers overwhelming demand, shifts the mid-term bias downward. Immediate support is now watched near the -1 standard deviation band around $68k.
On-chain data confirmed the rejection, showing short-term holder profit-taking spiking as price approached $80k. A key accumulation cluster between $65k-$70k provides a foundation, potentially supporting a bounce, but it could also become the next major support if sell pressure persists.
Off-chain, spot selling pressure is easing and institutional flows show early signs of stabilization, though full conviction is lacking. Derivatives markets show a record net short bias and declining implied volatility, indicating a defensive, range-bound environment. The 80k strike is a key pivot; a break above could trigger a short squeeze. Overall, the market remains trapped below resistance, awaiting a clear expansion in spot demand or institutional inflows for a decisive directional move.
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