SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2024-04-17Востаннє оновлено о 2024-04-17

Анотація

BTC凌晨从62000反弹到64000后在期权结算后又出现下跌，但我们也能观察到这样的价格走势模式在这周内几乎天天出现，BTC减半前有矿工选择提前兑现收益也在大家的预期之内，前三次减半前也都发生了明显的下跌，但矿工的影响力相比前几年已经有所缩小，这次价格的上升也有ETF的背书，使得最近下跌17%营造出的紧张情绪能被市场快速消化。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

昨日（16 APR）美国近期强劲的经济数据使得亚特兰大联储 GDPNow 模型将预测值上调至 2.9% ，远高于华尔街的预测；另一方面，市场对通胀的担忧加剧，对利率政策敏感的两年期美债收益率几欲突破 5.0% 关口， 2-10 实际收益率曲线也走陡至 2022 年底以来的最高水平。在此关头，美联储主席鲍威尔携众官员下场进行讲话，承认最近的数据显示了今年通胀进展不足，以及对通胀信心的恢复可能需要更长时间。与之相对的，加拿大央行行长麦科勒姆在同天表示加拿大央行不必跟随美联储的行动，在欧洲方面，欧洲央行行长拉加德也作出表态，除非出现重大意外，否则将很快降息。美联储似乎陷入了孤立无援的境地。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

Source: Investing, 对利率政策敏感的两年期美债收益率几欲突破 5.0% 关口

数字货币方面，BTC 凌晨从 62000 反弹到 64000 后在期权结算后又出现下跌，但我们也能观察到这样的价格走势模式在这周内几乎天天出现，BTC 减半前有矿工选择提前兑现收益也在大家的预期之内，前三次减半前也都发生了明显的下跌，但矿工的影响力相比前几年已经有所缩小，这次价格的上升也有 ETF 的背书，使得最近下跌 17% 营造出的紧张情绪能被市场快速消化，虽然 Vol Skew 还在低位，但期权前端 IV 翘起的部分已经在今天被几乎抹平。来自 CrytoQuant 的交易员评论道：“The correct approach now is to enter the market gradually at previously identified strategic points. The path to the current cycle's peak remains open, and we are still at the beginning of this journey.”

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

Source: SignalPlus；NewBTCs

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

Source: SignalPlus, 前端 ATM Vol 回落

但在 ETH 方面，有一个风险点引起了市场的注意。根据 Defillama 的数据显示，ETH 在 2904 附近（从现在算起下跌-5.5% ）会有大约 52.5 $M 的链上借贷资金清算，接近 18000 个 ETH，或引发币价在挤兑中进一步下行。这个风险也在交易上吸引到了短期针对 2900-P 的买入。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

Source: Defillama，ETH 在 2904 附近有 52.5 $M 的链上借贷清算

再说到交易上，就整体而言，ETH 前端仍主要以看空 Delta 的策略为主，远期还有表达有限看涨观点的买入。BTC 这边前端买 Put 依然火热，但一部分逢低买 Call 的 Flow 也在过去 24 小时开始逐步回归。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

Source: Deribit （截至 17 APR 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

Data Source: Deribit，BTC 交易期限分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

Data Source: Deribit，ETH 交易分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240417)：喘口气，重新布局

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