SignalPlus宏观分析(20240403):避险情绪持续加剧,股票、债券和加密货币齐跌

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2024-04-03Востаннє оновлено о 2024-04-03

Анотація

短期内波动可能会持续一段时间,一个在政府控制下的钱包已被激活,并执行了几笔向 Coinbase 的测试转帐。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240403):避险情绪持续加剧,股票、债券和加密货币齐跌

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240403):避险情绪持续加剧,股票、债券和加密货币齐跌

前一日开始的避险情绪持续加剧,股票、债券和加密货币同时下跌。在政策面,美联储官员持续撤回 Powell 在 3 月 FOMC 会议上的鸽派评论,Loretta、Mester 以及 Daly 都试图撤回任何即将降息的预期。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240403):避险情绪持续加剧,股票、债券和加密货币齐跌

美联储的行为并不奇怪,除了先前提到的通胀数据居高不下,花旗的全球经济惊奇指数也因持续强劲的经济表现而升至一年高点。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240403):避险情绪持续加剧,股票、债券和加密货币齐跌

债券投资者可能开始感到不安,昨天 MOVE 债券波动率指数相较于低点出现大幅反弹,而 10 年期收益率正往 4.50% 迈进,且 6 月降息的可能性目前似乎是一半一半。此外,尽管市场预期会降息,企业仍继续涌入发行市场以锁定借贷利率,本周预计有约 200 亿美元的新债发行,本月可能将高达 1, 000 亿美元,较去年同期增加了 50% 以上。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240403):避险情绪持续加剧,股票、债券和加密货币齐跌

在避险情绪方面,油价悄然回升至 2023 年高点的每桶 85 美元左右,今年已上涨 20% ,这可能是消费者真正关心的主要 CPI 指标。此外,尽管 Powell 转向鸽派,且黄金和 BTC 等走势相反的资产今年都在上涨,但美元兑大多数主要货币仍反常地升值(欧洲通胀不及预期、日本央行退出零利率政策、中国经济困境),这给人民币等货币带来了巨大的贬值压力,由于市场仍然对中国经济的状况感到担忧,人民币外汇远期点数的升水已经高于 2023 年最差水平。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240403):避险情绪持续加剧,股票、债券和加密货币齐跌

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240403):避险情绪持续加剧,股票、债券和加密货币齐跌

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240403):避险情绪持续加剧,股票、债券和加密货币齐跌

在股市方面,除了降息预期逐渐减弱之外,指数还受到 Tesla (-7% ) 的拖累,该公司公布的第一季业绩相当糟糕,严重低于预期,汽车交付量大幅下滑(-14% )、工厂停工隐忧、库存增加以及来自比亚迪和中国汽车制造商竞争加剧的担忧都加剧了该股的负面情绪。随著市场 “赶上”降息预期的变化,SPX 是否会在 4 月表现不佳?或者我们会再享受一个季度的荣景?

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240403):避险情绪持续加剧,股票、债券和加密货币齐跌

提到避险情绪,加密货币价格出现暴跌,BTC 昨天从 69 k 跌至 64.5 k 的低点,在 18 小时内有近 4 亿美元的期货头寸遭到清算。下跌一如既往地发生在亚洲交易时段,可能是对美国收盘后公布的 ETF 净流入数据(-8, 600 万)作出反应,加上亚洲投资者主要持有多头头寸的缘故。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240403):避险情绪持续加剧,股票、债券和加密货币齐跌

由于这波停损,未来头寸应该会更加清晰,永续资金费率也大幅下跌,而随著现货价格动能大幅减弱,短期看跌期权偏斜情况加剧。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240403):避险情绪持续加剧,股票、债券和加密货币齐跌

短期内波动可能会持续一段时间,区块链分析公司 Arkham 报告称,一个在政府控制下的钱包已被激活,并执行了几笔向 Coinbase 的测试转帐,预计是更大规模转帐的前兆,美国政府可能将代币出售换回法币。此外,ETF 发行商 Proshares 推出了几只针对散户的杠杆 Bitcoin ETF(BITU 和 SBIT),好好享受吧!

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240403):避险情绪持续加剧,股票、债券和加密货币齐跌

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240403):避险情绪持续加剧,股票、债券和加密货币齐跌

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:xdengalin)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。

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