史诗级逼空上演!比特币重上7万美元大关

jin10Опубліковано о 2024-03-25Востаннє оновлено о 2024-03-25

比特币爱好者似乎对上周美国比特币现货ETF的资金外流不以为然,这种最大的加密货币周一再次攀升至7万美元以上。

上周有近9亿美元资金从这些ETF中撤出,反映出Grayscale Bitcoin Trust的资金持续流出,以及贝莱德和富达的产品认购有所放缓。这10只基金今年经历了自1月份成立以来最糟糕的一周。比特币ETF的新需求是今年比特币历史性反弹背后的主要推动力。然而,上周的大规模资金外流引发了交易员针对价格下跌的更多对冲,以及加密货币期货市场杠杆多头押注的大量平仓。

数字资产对冲基金INDIGO Fund联合创始人Nathanaël Cohen表示:“尽管ETF资金流入受到拖累,但在6万美元附近的买入订单量仍然很高,这表明市场渴望在下跌时买入。”

金融博客零对冲报道称,虽然上一周出现了自去年十月以来最大的比特币CME非商业期货做空/卖出头寸,但买入的头寸也很多。高盛期货部门观察到比特币期货屡创新高:事实上,随着比特币价格此前突破7.3万美元的创纪录高位,上周未平仓合约总额也超过3.3万份,价值接近120亿美元,持有比特币合约的机构总数也接近创纪录水平。

高盛在上周日的报告中指出,机构净多头和对冲基金净空头头寸达到创纪录水平,多头集中度远高于平均水平。前4名净多头交易者的持仓量占总持仓量的近60%。与此同时,期货隐含资金也保持较高水平,自去年第四季度比特币价格上涨以来,通常在10%以上,有时甚至超过15%。

把所有的事情都放在一起,高盛周日预测到“又一次史诗般的逼空即将到来”。正如高盛所言,比特币期货市场发生了一场“史诗级的逼空”,对冲基金的空头头寸在价格急剧上涨后无法坚守而被迫平仓

Пов'язані матеріали

Rented Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Inflows Is Real Money?

"Rented Conviction: How Much of Bitcoin ETF Flows Is Real Money" The weekly inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are often interpreted as a gauge of institutional belief. However, a significant portion of this activity is driven by a hidden arbitrage trade, not directional conviction. The core mechanism is a cash-and-carry arbitrage: traders buy spot Bitcoin (often via ETFs) while simultaneously shorting CME futures to lock in the price difference, or "basis." This delta-neutral trade is essentially an interest rate play. In weekly data, about half the fluctuation in ETF flows can be explained by new short positions added by leveraged funds (hedge funds), with a correlation of 0.70. Bitcoin's price movement in a given week shows no statistical power in predicting these flows. While this arbitrage trade drives weekly *volatility*, it is not the main component of the cumulative *stock*. Of the total ~$55 billion in net ETF inflows, the current net arbitrage position is only about $1 billion. The remainder is steady, directional buying averaging ~$400 million per week, which constitutes the vast majority of the accumulated "mountain" over two years. Thus, ETF flow data overstates the *volatility* of conviction, not its *level*. This arbitrage trade has been unwinding for nearly two years. Leveraged fund short positions peaked at ~$14 billion in late 2024 and have since declined to ~$4.5 billion. When the basis compresses to unprofitable levels, ETF inflows and short positions retreat together. Recent outflows should not be mistaken for a loss of faith but rather the routine unwinding of this rate trade. For Ethereum ETFs, the pattern is weaker. Accounting for staking yield makes the basis often negative, so neither strong conviction buying nor robust arbitrage supports its flows. To interpret ETF flows correctly, monitor the CME basis versus T-bill rates and leveraged fund net shorts. They reveal how much of the next "demand" headline is real. The real, patient buy-and-hold demand is what constitutes the enduring bulk of ETF assets.

marsbit9 хв тому

Rented Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Inflows Is Real Money?

marsbit9 хв тому

Soaring Over Tenfold Within the Year: The Frenzy Over SK Hynix Leveraged Products

South China Morning Post The leveraged ETF tracking SK Hynix has surged over tenfold year-to-date, fueled by intense market speculation on the memory chip sector. By June 22, the value of the 'South Korea 2x Long SK Hynix ETF' listed in Hong Kong had skyrocketed by more than 1,061% since the start of the year, while its asset size exploded over twenty times from the end of last year. The rally is driven by AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), with SK Hynix recently sampling its next-generation HBM4E product. However, industry professionals warn of significant risks. Leveraged ETFs magnify both gains and losses. During a recent market correction, while the underlying SK Hynix stock fell 19.1%, its double-leveraged ETF dropped nearly 38%. Korean regulators noted that such products could theoretically lose 60% in a single day. Additionally, these ETFs face risks like time decay in volatile markets, liquidity spirals during mass redemptions, and extreme price dislocations from market-making failures, as seen in early June when an ETF moved opposite to its underlying stock. The trading is predominantly driven by retail investors, with institutional capital largely absent due to the products' high volatility. Analysts caution that with the semiconductor sector at elevated valuations and facing geopolitical and supply chain uncertainties, leveraged ETFs pose a substantial threat of amplified losses for uninformed investors.

marsbit1 год тому

Soaring Over Tenfold Within the Year: The Frenzy Over SK Hynix Leveraged Products

marsbit1 год тому

18 Months, Over 50x Surge: KIOXIA's Epic Comeback

KIOXIA, a NAND flash memory giant, staged a dramatic comeback driven by AI demand. After a period of significant losses, a failed merger, and missed HBM opportunities, its 2024 IPO began modestly. However, fueled by explosive demand for AI data storage, its stock price skyrocketed over 50 times within 18 months, making it Japan's most valuable company, surpassing Toyota. Its Q1 FY2026 profit guidance soared 30-fold year-over-year, with 2026 NAND capacity already sold out. Key to its success is its 3D NAND technology, BiCS FLASH. As the inventor of NAND, KIOXIA advanced its technology through generations, reaching over 200 layers by 2023. Key innovations include CBA (CMOS directly Bonded to Array), which separately manufactures control circuits and memory arrays for better performance, and OPS (On Pitch Select Gate) to increase density. The company is now developing high-capacity packages like an 8TB solution stacking 32 dies. Looking beyond NAND, KIOXIA is exploring 3D DRAM with its OCTRAM technology, using oxide semiconductor transistors for ultra-low leakage to reduce power consumption. This fundamental research differs from HBM and represents a long-term bet to extend its 3D expertise from NAND into future DRAM architectures. KIOXIA's story highlights how technological assets and shifting market cycles can rapidly transform a company's fortunes. While questions remain about sustaining growth beyond the current AI boom, its resurgence demonstrates that in semiconductors, being down does not necessarily mean being out.

marsbit1 год тому

18 Months, Over 50x Surge: KIOXIA's Epic Comeback

marsbit1 год тому

Market Trends in U.S. Stocks (June 23): Peak at Listing? SpaceX Loses Over $800 Billion in Three Days, Tech Stocks Experience Severe Internal Divergence

Stock Market Trends (June 23): Did SpaceX Peak at IPO? The company loses over $800 billion in market value in three days as a sharp divergence unfolds within the tech sector. SpaceX's post-IPO decline of over 20%, falling below its first-day close, reflects a swift market repricing. The catalyst is a clear shift in narrative from "AI platform potential" to concerns over rising capital costs, as its $8.57 billion IPO and subsequent $20 billion debt offering are earmarked for acquisitions and refinancing existing bridge loans rather than de-leveraging. While high-valuation tech stocks like Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft faced pressure, Micron surged nearly 7% to a record high following a strategic supply deal with Anthropic for HBM and memory, highlighting robust, tangible demand in AI infrastructure. The broader market saw funds rotate into more defensive industrial and financial names. Macro factors included a dip in oil prices to a three-month low on news of a US-Iran framework deal, though logistical hurdles for resuming full Strait of Hormuz shipments remain. Key events ahead include Nvidia's shareholder meeting, Micron's earnings, and the May PCE inflation data. The latter will be crucial in determining whether the sell-off in high-valuation growth stocks, which appears to have just begun, will persist.

marsbit1 год тому

Market Trends in U.S. Stocks (June 23): Peak at Listing? SpaceX Loses Over $800 Billion in Three Days, Tech Stocks Experience Severe Internal Divergence

marsbit1 год тому

Торгівля

Спот
Ф'ючерси
活动图片