SignalPlus宏观分析(20240305):加密市场暴涨,情绪持续高涨

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2024-03-05Востаннє оновлено о 2024-03-05

Анотація

传统金融市场昨天处于区间震荡,股市在近期区间内盘整,但由于企业债供应增加,整体收益率曲线走高。加密货币方面,主流货币/altcoins/memecoins都跳空走高,X/Twitter上到处都有投资者提到巨额收益。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240305):加密市场暴涨,情绪持续高涨

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240305):加密市场暴涨,情绪持续高涨

传统金融市场昨天处于区间震荡,股市在近期区间内盘整,但由于企业债供应增加,整体收益率曲线走高。Powell 即将于周三/周四赴国会作证,企业纷纷急于在本周的前两天进行债券发行, 48 小时内预计将有 300-350 亿美元的债券完成定价。昨天主要的消息来自亚特兰大联储 Bostic,他在一篇文章中表达了担忧,认为降息可能会释放新的需求,从而加剧价格压力,他在问答中进一步表示,预计“首次降息后可能会暂时按兵不动,以评估影响…希望能够尽可能保持当前缩表速度”。

本周将迎来一连串美联储官员发言,包括 Daly(周三)、Kashkari(周三)、Mester(周四)和 Powell(周三至周四),市场将密切关注是否有进一步的鹰派调整信息。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240305):加密市场暴涨,情绪持续高涨

在股票方面,没有特别引人注目的消息,不过 Bloomberg 指出,SPX 表现的集中度已达到历史极端水平,表现优于指数的成分股比例处于互联网泡沫以来的最低水平,换句话说,SPX 指数的上涨完全是由少数股票(例如 Nvidia)所推动的,即使是长期稳定的股票如 Apple 和 Tesla,年初至今的表现也落后于指数。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240305):加密市场暴涨,情绪持续高涨

虽然股票的出色表现在很大程度上可以归因于巨大的 EPS 增长,但仍然有理由相信我们可能正在接近股票的中期顶部,几乎所有风险资产类别(股票、信贷、加密货币)的风险情绪都在失控边缘。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240305):加密市场暴涨,情绪持续高涨

加密货币方面,主流货币/altcoins/memecoins 都跳空走高,X/Twitter 上到处都有投资者提到巨额收益。ETF 方面,交易仍保持活跃,根据 Bloomberg 的报导,交易量达到 55 亿美元,为推出以来第二高的日交易量。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240305):加密市场暴涨,情绪持续高涨

当前永续资金费率非常高,许多交易所的年化费率在周末期间飙升至 50% 以上,而 BTC 期货基差也扩大至 30% 左右。FOMO 的现象在期权中更加明显,过去 24 小时内有大量 7 万到 8 万美元的看涨期权买盘。市场情绪持续高涨,BTC 在夏季前触及 10 万美元的预期也开始上升,提醒各位要注意风险,小心安全!

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240305):加密市场暴涨,情绪持续高涨

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240305):加密市场暴涨,情绪持续高涨

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:SignalPlus 123)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。

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