SignalPlus宏观分析(20240228):BTC接近6W美元,市场FOMO情绪高涨

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2024-02-28Востаннє оновлено о 2024-02-28

Анотація

昨天市场相对平静,经济数据好坏参半,资产价格在近期区间内盘整。在加密货币方面,价格持续上涨,在过去一天半的时间里,BTC期货的空头清算量接近3亿美元,随著加密货币市值回到$2万亿美元上方,除GBTC外的ETF交易量也在过去几天里创下新高。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240228):BTC接近6W美元,市场FOMO情绪高涨

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240228):BTC接近6W美元,市场FOMO情绪高涨

昨天市场相对平静,经济数据好坏参半,资产价格在近期区间内盘整。2 月份 Richmond 联储制造业指数反弹 10 点至 -5 ,主要得益于当前和未来就业指数的跃升,而支付价格增速则从 4.2% 降至 3.5% 。另一方面,美国耐用品订单环比暴跌至 -6.1% ,创 2020 年 4 月以来最大跌幅,主要是因为运输类耐用品订单(飞机)下滑 16.2% 。此外,消费者信心指数大幅低于预期,现况和预期指数以及就业类别均表现疲软。总而言之,尽管美国经济无疑仍然强劲,但我们可能正在接近正向数据的短期峰值,接下来我们可能会看到就业数据出现一些弱化的情况。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240228):BTC接近6W美元,市场FOMO情绪高涨

本周五是美国政府部分“停摆”的期限,如果政客们决定再次将事情拖到最后一刻,可能会在 3 月 8 日面临更大规模的停摆,预计未来几天将解决融资法案的细节,持续决议案可能是一个选择,这将增加下周整体消息面的风险。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240228):BTC接近6W美元,市场FOMO情绪高涨

在加密货币方面,价格持续上涨,在过去一天半的时间里,BTC 期货的空头清算量接近 3 亿美元,随著加密货币市值回到 $ 2 万亿美元上方,除 GBTC 外的 ETF 交易量也在过去几天里创下新高。市场 FOMO 情绪高涨,不同的 altcoin 都出现反弹,期货现货的价差也在扩大。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240228):BTC接近6W美元,市场FOMO情绪高涨

不出所料,加密货币波动率大幅上涨, 1 周至 1 个月的波动率均位于 57-61% 左右的水平。交易商似乎在现货价格爆炸式上涨时陷入 short-gamms 的困境,不过随著价格接近 60 k,短期看跌期权也开始回涨。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240228):BTC接近6W美元,市场FOMO情绪高涨

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240228):BTC接近6W美元,市场FOMO情绪高涨

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:SignalPlus 123)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

Пов'язані матеріали

Critical Moments in Bitcoin: Cost Zones That Demand Attention Have Been Identified!

Analytics firm Glassnode reported that reduced expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, along with pricing in possible rate hikes, have suppressed risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market. The Fed's interest rate decisions are crucial for market direction. U.S. Treasury yields have surpassed returns from crypto carry trades, leading investors to favor cash and low-risk interest-bearing instruments over crypto assets. A strong U.S. dollar further weakens marginal demand for crypto. Bitcoin is currently trading below its most intensive cost basis level, with approximately $69,000 identified as the breakeven zone and significant resistance for short-term investors. For a stronger recovery, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $69,000 threshold with increased trading volume. Renewed active demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs is also deemed critical. According to Glassnode, the current Bitcoin decline represents the shallowest bear market in terms of price drawdown depth to date. However, based on previous cycle durations, this downturn may not be over yet. Spot trading volumes have fallen to multi-year lows, and sell-side order books have thinned, though many buy orders are placed significantly below current prices. Glassnode's risk indicator, Vector, signaled "risk off," suggesting a capital preservation mindset. The current market structure is being driven more by macroeconomic factors like monetary policy, bond yields, and dollar strength than by crypto-sector developments. Losing Bitcoin's support range of $62,000-$68,000, coupled with renewed exchange inflows, could negate the recovery scenario. Conversely, more favorable monetary policy, increased trading volume, a Bitcoin recovery above $69,000, and a resumption of spot ETF buying could signal a market turnaround.

cryptonews.ru1 год тому

Critical Moments in Bitcoin: Cost Zones That Demand Attention Have Been Identified!

cryptonews.ru1 год тому

Breaking News: Full Detailed Rationale and Explanation of the Fed's Interest Rate Decision Released!

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75 percent, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision passed with a 9-3 majority vote. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan dissented, voting in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike. This was the first meeting since 2016 where three regional Fed presidents voted against holding rates steady, signaling growing influence among members advocating for tighter monetary policy to combat inflation. The Fed's statement noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace despite high uncertainty, partly due to Middle East conflicts. It highlighted that growth in productivity and investment remained strong, employment gains have aligned with labor force growth, and the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable. The Fed also committed to maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. The statement emphasized that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. It noted that supply shocks, including in the energy sector, are adding to inflationary pressures. The Committee stated it will continue to closely monitor incoming data and risks in pursuit of its price stability goal. The dissenting members argued that the target range for the federal funds rate should have been increased by 25 basis points.

cryptonews.ru1 год тому

Breaking News: Full Detailed Rationale and Explanation of the Fed's Interest Rate Decision Released!

cryptonews.ru1 год тому

Торгівля

Спот
活动图片