SignalPlus宏观分析(20240227)：GBTC流出趋近于零

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2024-02-27Востаннє оновлено о 2024-02-27

Анотація

在昨天的价格走势中，牛市行情似乎出现了细微裂缝。Microstrategy 宣布增持 1.5 亿美元的 BTC（持有总额近 100 亿美元，成本低至 3.1 万美元！），这个消息再次提振了市场信心，同时 GBTC 的流出量减少、资金持续流入新 ETF 也进一步支持了主流市场参与的叙事。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240227)：GBTC流出趋近于零

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240227)：GBTC流出趋近于零

在昨天的价格走势中，牛市行情似乎出现了细微裂缝。首先是固定收益，大规模的企业债和公债发行终于引起了一些消化不良的情况，继上周 600 亿美元的新债供应后，市场在周一又再次迎来 200 亿美元的公司债发行， 2 月迄今发行规模已达 1, 450 亿美元，仅比去年创下的历史最高纪录低 50 亿美元，同时， 2 年期和 5 年期公债发行量也分别高达 630 亿和 640 亿美元，两次拍卖的市场需求都较为和缓，导致收益率反弹至接近 12 月高点，并回吐了年初至今的所有涨幅。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240227)：GBTC流出趋近于零

股市的表现稍好一些，虽然 Nasdaq 和 SPX 指数均因月末再平衡的预期而收跌。由于本月 SPX (+ 4.8% ) 的表现大幅优于美债 (-1.5% )，华尔街估计未来几天会有相当规模的再平衡资金转向债市。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240227)：GBTC流出趋近于零

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240227)：GBTC流出趋近于零

尽管股价高涨，投资者仍继续涌向股市，只有港股的净仓位呈现负面态势。而根据美国银行的一项调查数据，预期美国经济不著陆（即经济不会衰退）的投资者比例已升至 41% 。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240227)：GBTC流出趋近于零

说到 FOMO，截至撰写本文时，BTC 已跃升至近 57, 000 美元，市场似乎正进入累积模式。Microstrategy 宣布增持 1.5 亿美元的 BTC（持有总额近 100 亿美元，成本低至 3.1 万美元！），这个消息再次提振了市场信心，同时 GBTC 的流出量减少、资金持续流入新 ETF 也进一步支持了主流市场参与的叙事。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240227)：GBTC流出趋近于零

同时，欧洲央行分析师抓住这个时机重申，尽管 ETF 获得批准，但“加密货币毫无价值”，因为该资产没有任何内在价值（之类的），或许对央行官员来说，购买负收益率债券（大约 2016-2021 年间）对退休金来说是一个更好的“投资决策”吧…

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240227)：GBTC流出趋近于零

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240227)：GBTC流出趋近于零

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240227)：GBTC流出趋近于零

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