开启死亡螺旋or压力测试结束?UST能被拯救吗

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2022-05-10Востаннє оновлено о 2022-05-10

Анотація

算法稳定币龙头TerraUSD(UST)正处于灾难性的混乱之中。

算法稳定币龙头TerraUSD(UST)正处于灾难性的混乱之中。

Coingecko数据显示,随着近日加密货币市场整体下挫,BTC一度跌破30000美元关口,UST脱离锚点(1美元)的幅度越来越大,于北京时间5月10日9时左右探底至0.66美元。截至发稿时,UST已反弹至0.9美元附近。

这不只是UST史上脱锚最严重的一次,其“崩盘”和“多方救援”对市场带来的连锁反应也成为了大家谈论的热点。

UST遭遇抛压,脱锚预警

为厘清事件始末,Odaily星球日报先对UST的运行原理和锚定机制做简要回顾。

UST是运行在Terra公链上、价格锚定1美元的算法稳定币。

执行上,系统通过燃烧Terra链的原生资产LUNA和UST,以实现对UST供应的动态调控:当UST需求增加、币价升至1美元以上时,LUNA就会被燃烧,铸造出新的UST;反之,若UST需求降低、跌至1美元以下,则UST被燃烧以铸造新的LUNA,以此恢复与美元的挂钩。

随着LUNA生态的高速发展,以及UST自身运行机制的生态赋能,使得UST在过去的半年里,市值从不到30亿美元飙升至超过180亿美元,稳坐算稳赛道龙头位置。(补充阅读:《Messari报告:2022年Terra生态发展最好,UST成为生态外扩的关键https://www.odaily.news/post/5177448》)

与此同时,Terra生态发展组织LunaFoundationGuard(LFG)通过大量增持BTC的方式进一步巩固UST(及其高存款APY)的稳定性。5月5日,LFG比特币持有量达到80394枚,已成为比特币第七大巨鲸地址。

但就在5月7日,一条鲸鱼开始抛售价值2.85亿美元的UST,导致稳定币一度跌至0.98美元,UST短暂走出平日的美元汇率区间。同时,LUNA也跌至三个月低点——61美元。

随后,在5月8日晚,推特上频繁发出交易金额达百万级别的UST抛售消息,此时UST已承受严重抛压,并出现了一定程度的脱锚。

5月9日晚,UST继续向下试探。LUNA和UST持有者的恐慌情绪上升,导致Anchor(Terra生态中的UST生息存款服务,其APY曾稳定在20%水平)上的大量资金被撤出,Anchor的存款价值减少了近1/4,大约有35亿美元的加密资产被提取。这对UST保持锚定形成了巨大压力。

5月10日凌晨,因UST脱锚,Curve平台UST/3CRV池比例已严重倾斜,其中UST/3CRV比例为94.16%/5.84%。

UST脱锚也引发LUNA生态巨震。LUNA价格腰斩,现徘徊于32USDT附近。据DeFiLlama,LUNATVL跌幅44.81%,其生态TVL排名前10的协议都大幅缩水。

“护盘”进行时,UST脱锚能被挽回吗?

为阻止UST陷入死亡螺旋,各方开始了联合拯救行动:

1、LFG的自救

5月9日,LFG将价值7.5亿美元的BTC贷款给OTC交易公司,以帮助保护UST的锚定,再贷款7.5亿美元的UST,以便在市场条件正常化时积累BTC。

随后,LFG决定部署15亿美元BTC/UST流动性(7.5亿美元用于BTC,7.5亿美元用于UST),以缓解市场围绕UST的担忧。其官方也宣称不会清算自己的BTC持仓头寸。

此外,LFG还用28205枚BTC补充UST储备。在LFG的努力下,UST价格在5月9日得到了缓解,回到了0.99美元附近。

2、多方“充值”下,恐慌并没有蔓延

LFG的“自救三部曲”只让UST短暂回至1美元附近,此后又开始大幅下跌。面对当前行情形势,不少公司和个人也在付诸行动。

TheBlock研究总监LarryCermak发推称,“有传言说Jump、Alameda等公司又提供了20亿美元来拯救UST,让UST重回1美元。”他表示,现在拯救UST的唯一方法是完全(或可能非常接近完全)抵押。否则UST将不会被再次使用。

FrogNation前CFO0xSifu将280万枚USDT兑换成了388万枚UST。

孙宇晨买入逾100万枚UST,并在Uniswap上部署UST/USDD池。

另据PedroOjeda,在这次脱锚事件中,Anchor上虽然有大量资金出逃,但有91%的用户选择了无视或躺平,在存款和取款当中,有75%的价值来自大于100万美元的182个钱包(占比约1%)。因此,大规模恐慌并没有蔓延,人们依然想把UST存在Anchor中。

在多方的努力下,UST在5月10日午间反弹至0.9USDT。

对于UST后续是否会重新恢复锚定,市场上仍持不同观点:

对于此次脱锚事件,推特上的很多人保持冷静,认为当Luna团队找到有效的长期解决方法后,UST还会重拾大家的信任。

“我仍然希望并认为Luna团队能够将UST锚定回1美元。短期解决方案是用像USDT这样的中心化稳定币来支持它。祝他们一切顺利。”

同时,也有人表示:每个以60c和70c的价格割肉出售UST的人实际上只是通过减少资产负债错配来帮助它重新挂钩。

最简单的是,人们相信,UST背后的3AC、币安等隐形大佬不会轻易让UST彻底崩盘。不少人笑谈USDT的例子,Tether同样是常年饱受暴雷风险诟病,却在各共生利益方的捆绑支持之下始终坐着稳定币的王座。

当然,也有观点认为在当前比特币行情不稳,市场普遍恐慌的情况下,UST短期恢复锚定将面临着挑战。如果UST再次脱锚,LFG有限的子弹(比特币储备)是否能护住UST?如果不能,导致LFG抛售比特币,大量买家遭遇市场清算,市场将进一步陷入恐慌和风险,届时那些资本还会继续“慷慨解囊”吗?

截止发稿前,UST价格在0.918美元附近,LUNA也小幅反弹,从底部的23.5美元反弹至最高37美元,暂报31.65美元。不少投资者已开始入场抄底,恐慌情绪稍显缓解。

下一步该怎么做才能重新平衡其储备,UST究竟是需要时间恢复,还是需要时间归零?市场尚未给出最终答案。

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