SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119):GBTC持续流出,加密市场将承受短期抛压

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2024-01-19Востаннє оновлено о 2024-01-19

Анотація

在前一日短天期收益率经历了混乱的重新定价后,长天期收益率在强劲的房地产数据、初请失业救济人数创一年新低。随著GBTC资金持续流出,且对ETF获批的兴奋情绪有所减弱,币价自ETF推出以来出现下滑,GBTC折价的反转(回落至-0.956%)也表明存在一些短期抛售压力。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119):GBTC持续流出,加密市场将承受短期抛压

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119):GBTC持续流出,加密市场将承受短期抛压

在前一日短天期收益率经历了混乱的重新定价后,长天期收益率在强劲的房地产数据、初请失业救济人数创一年新低、以及欧美市场债券供应消化问题的背景下也出现重新定价,市场对西班牙和法国最新的债券发行反应平淡,而美国投资等级企业和 SSA (国际机构、次主权与政府机构) 本周截至目前为止已有约 350 亿美元的债券发行,拖累长天期收益率走升约 6 个基点。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119):GBTC持续流出,加密市场将承受短期抛压美国初请失业救济人数大幅下降至 18.7 万(前值为 20.2 万),是一年多来的最低点,也将成为非农就业数据计算的参考数值,数据结果一开始令市场感到措手不及,而后续发布的新屋开工和营建许可也超出预期,显示新年开始住房需求依然强劲,部分原因是抵押贷款利率的下降。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119):GBTC持续流出,加密市场将承受短期抛压

股市在科技股的带动下出现反弹,TSMC 预计 2024 年将回到“健康增长”,带动费城半导体指数走高,该公司预计 2024 财年营收将增长 20% ,并预计在日本、亚利桑那州和德国的全球扩张计划中投入 280 至 320 亿美元。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119):GBTC持续流出,加密市场将承受短期抛压

此外,昨天下午晚些时候中国股指也出现反弹,部分大型 ETF 出现大规模成交量,引发市场猜测国家资金可能正在入市支撑,以遏制近期的跌势,多个中国 ETF 的交易量出现了自 2015 年以来最大的跳升(!!),同时沪深 300 指数也出现了约 3% 的逆转(从 -1.8% 至 + 1.4% )。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119):GBTC持续流出,加密市场将承受短期抛压

在加密货币方面,随著 GBTC 资金持续流出,且对 ETF 获批的兴奋情绪有所减弱,币价自 ETF 推出以来出现下滑,GBTC 折价的反转(回落至 -0.956% )也表明存在一些短期抛售压力。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119):GBTC持续流出,加密市场将承受短期抛压

在正面消息方面,Coinbase 与 SEC 案件在周三的口头辩论中似乎对前者有利,一些评论指出,该案法官准备得非常充分,对相关议题非常了解,为听证会起草了超过 14 页的内容,且熟悉各种加密货币术语和技术;Coinbase 提出了有力的论据,认为在其平台上交易的加密货币资产不满足 Howey test 的要素,且代币“本身不是证券”似乎存在普遍共识。

然而,Failla 法官似乎也不愿意纯粹以“重大问题原则”来驳回此案(重大议题应由国会而不是 SEC 等机构提出),该案仍有可能会继续发展,还需要好几个月才能有结果。

简而言之,此案似乎有机会成为对抗 SEC 的另一场胜利,不过拖延的时间可能会比许多人希望的还要更长。

(本文观点仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议)

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119):GBTC持续流出,加密市场将承受短期抛压

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119):GBTC持续流出,加密市场将承受短期抛压

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:xdengalin)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

Пов'язані матеріали

Playnance’s $GCOIN Lists on KoinBX Amid Rapid Growth in India

Playnance's native token, $GCOIN, has been listed on the cryptocurrency exchange KoinBX as of June 18. This move aims to enhance accessibility for its rapidly growing community, particularly in India, where the blockchain-powered Web3 iGaming ecosystem has gained significant traction. Over 130 partners in Playnance's "Be the Boss" program have built communities engaging thousands of active players in the region. The "Be the Boss" model allows participants to create and manage their own gaming communities, earning rewards tied to community activity. CEO Pini Peter noted India's high engagement, with community leaders successfully building player networks. One partner, Dr. Nicolas, reported earning over $57,000 through the program in recent months, highlighting both the financial rewards and the opportunity to grow an engaged community. $GCOIN serves as the ecosystem's core utility token, incentivizing participation and aligning the interests of players and community leaders ("Bosses"). The listing on KoinBX is part of Playnance's strategy to expand globally, increasing the token's utility and accessibility by combining community ownership, gamified engagement, and blockchain-based incentives. Founded in 2020, Playnance is a Web3 iGaming infrastructure company focused on creating live, non-custodial, on-chain products to onboard mainstream users. It currently processes approximately one million transactions daily, aiming to simplify the user experience while maintaining full on-chain transparency.

TheNewsCrypto32 хв тому

Playnance’s $GCOIN Lists on KoinBX Amid Rapid Growth in India

TheNewsCrypto32 хв тому

STRC Hits Historic Low, Saylor's Perpetual Motion Machine Grinds to a Halt

STRC, the perpetual preferred stock issued by MicroStrategy to fund its Bitcoin purchases, hit a historic low of $85.32, a 17% discount to its $100 par value. Designed as a "digital credit engine" to trade stably near par and enable continuous share issuance for buying Bitcoin, its plunge signals a breakdown in this model. Three key factors drove the decline: 1. Bitcoin's price fell over 50% from its peak, trading around $63,000 amid hawkish Fed signals. 2. MicroStrategy's cash reserves were depleted after a $1.5 billion convertible note repayment, slashing the dividend coverage for STRC's 11.5% yield to ~7 months. The company then sold 32 BTC to cover dividends—Michael Saylor's first Bitcoin sale since 2022—damaging the "never sell" narrative. 3. A competing Bitcoin-backed preferred stock, Strive's SATA, offers a higher yield (~13%) and daily dividends, drawing investors away from STRC. The drop triggers a negative cycle: STRC below par halts ATM share issuances, cutting off a key funding source for Bitcoin buys and potentially forcing more BTC sales for dividends, further eroding confidence. While Saylor argues the model is mathematically sound—needing only 2.3% annual Bitcoin growth to sustain itself—the market is testing the resilience of the leveraged Bitcoin treasury strategy in a bear market. The STRC price now reflects rising skepticism about this financial machinery's durability during downturns.

marsbit52 хв тому

STRC Hits Historic Low, Saylor's Perpetual Motion Machine Grinds to a Halt

marsbit52 хв тому

A Guide to Grayscale’s ‘Bottom Fishing’: Using Cash Flow to Assess Cryptocurrency Value

**Title:** Grayscale's Guide to Bottom-Fishing: Valuing Cryptoassets Using Cash Flows **Summary:** This report by Grayscale Research presents a fundamental valuation framework for cryptocurrency assets, moving beyond pure speculation to analyze those with underlying cash flows. It distinguishes between "commodity-like" assets (e.g., Bitcoin) and "cash-flow" assets, primarily within DeFi. Using the leading decentralized lending protocol Aave as a case study, the analysis applies traditional financial methodologies like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiples. Key findings indicate that AAVE tokens are currently undervalued. Despite recent challenges, the protocol's strong revenue growth, ~50% net profit margin, and diversified treasury support a fundamental valuation range of $80-$100 per token (compared to a ~$75 market price at the time of writing). In a base-case scenario driven by stablecoin adoption and regulatory clarity, the fair value could rise to around $175 within a year. The report emphasizes that protocol success does not automatically translate to token value. It critically examines the "value capture" mechanisms—such as buybacks, burns, and staking rewards—that channel protocol profits to token holders. Furthermore, it addresses the legal and governance complexities of Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), noting their difference from traditional corporate equity but highlighting how robust, transparent governance can align protocol economics with holder interests. The conclusion is that the crypto market is maturing, with capital increasingly flowing towards projects with demonstrable fundamentals, real adoption, and disciplined capital allocation, creating opportunities for value-based investors.

marsbit2 год тому

A Guide to Grayscale’s ‘Bottom Fishing’: Using Cash Flow to Assess Cryptocurrency Value

marsbit2 год тому

After semiconductors lead the gains, are funds buying into AI orders or a macroeconomic rebound?

After US-Iran talks led to a temporary ceasefire and framework for reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz, U.S. stocks rose on June 18, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.9%. The semiconductor and AI hardware sectors outperformed. This rally stemmed primarily from reduced geopolitical risk, which lowered oil prices and inflation expectations, easing discount rate pressure on high-valuation growth stocks like tech. The key question is not whether tech rebounded, but the nature of the rebound. The market appears to be selectively repricing AI infrastructure plays rather than broadly chasing AI narratives. Gains were concentrated in chips, optical interconnects, memory, and domestic manufacturing—segments tied to tangible data center build-outs and capital expenditure. Intel's ~10% surge, fueled by a Trump statement about potential Apple collaboration, exemplifies this mixed dynamic. It reflects policy catalysts and domestic manufacturing sentiment more than confirmed fundamentals. Meanwhile, strong earnings from companies like Astera Labs (revenue up 93% YoY) provided concrete evidence of AI-driven demand in hardware. In essence, the rally represents a risk-premium recalibration. Lower Middle East tensions opened a valuation repair window, and capital flowed first into AI infrastructure segments with visible near-term revenue streams. The sustainability of this move hinges on upcoming Q2 earnings, specifically continued strength in cloud provider capex, AI server orders, and hardware company guidance. Policy hopes alone are insufficient; the cycle needs validation from orders and financials.

marsbit2 год тому

After semiconductors lead the gains, are funds buying into AI orders or a macroeconomic rebound?

marsbit2 год тому

Торгівля

Спот
Ф'ючерси
活动图片