加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2023-12-23Востаннє оновлено о 2023-12-23

Анотація

牛市中的小市值与板块轮动是什么？本周涨幅较大的有哪些项目？

牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

本周涨幅较大的热点币

情绪带动低相关小市值币轮动拉涨，周六先是 ICP，周三开始换 SOL/NEAR，周四 ROSE 启动，周五轮动 ARB。

什么是牛市中的小市值与板块轮动效应？

牛市中，小市值的币往往表现出更高的增长潜力和回报率，使其更容易受到市场资金的关注和追捧。投资者通常认为小市值的币具有更大的成长空间，可能在较短的时间内实现更高的增长。

其次，板块轮动是指在牛市中，不同行业或板块之间的轮番热度变化。不同板块的币在不同时间段内会表现出不同的增长趋势。这是由于不同板块受到情绪因素、板块景气度等因素的影响，引起了投资者对不同板块的关注度和投资热情的变化。

板块轮动的逻辑在于寻找市场中的热点领域，并在其上涨之前进行买入，然后在其达到高点之后进行卖出，再寻找下一个潜在的热点板块。这种策略旨在追求较高的回报率。投资者可以通过观察市场的热点板块、追踪舆情数据、了解资金流向等因素，来预测下一个可能的板块轮动方向，并做出相应的投资调整与风险管理。

需要注意的是，牛市中的小市值币和板块轮动都存在一定的风险。小市值币种可能具有较高的波动性和流动性风险，投资者需要谨慎评估和管理风险。同时，板块轮动需要准确的市场判断和时机把握，因此策略开发者需要具备一定的市场分析和投资经验。

比特币减半距离今天（2023.12.22）还有约 116 天

减半倒计时：https://www.nicehash.com/countdown/btc-halving-2024-05-10-12-00?_360safeparam=1289146171

市场技术与情绪环境分析

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

情绪分析组成

技术指标

价格走势

过去一周 BTC 价格上升 1.95% ，ETH 价格下跌-3.27% 。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

上图是 BTC 过去一周的价格图

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

上图是 ETH 过去一周的价格图

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

表格显示过去一个周的价格变化率

价量分布图（支撑阻力）

过去一周 BTC 价格在密集成交区上方，ETH 价格在密集成交区内。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

上图是 BTC 过去一周的密集成交区分布图

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

上图是 ETH 过去一周的密集成交区分布图

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

表格显示 BTC 与 ETH 过去一周中每周的密集成交区间

成交量与未平仓量

过去一周 BTC 与 ETH 都在 12.18 后开始上升；未平仓量持续上升。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

上图最上方 BTC 的价格走势，中间是成交量、最下方是未平仓量、浅蓝色是 1 天均值，橘色是 7 天均值。其中 K 线的颜色代表当前的状态，绿色是价格上升有成交量支持，红色是在平仓，黄色是在缓慢累积仓位，黑色是拥挤状态。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

上图最上方 ETH 的价格走势，中间是成交量、最下方是未平仓量、浅蓝色是 1 天均值，橘色是 7 天均值。其中 K 线的颜色代表当前的状态，绿色是价格上升有成交量支持，红色是在平仓，黄色是在缓慢累积仓位，黑色是拥挤状态。

历史波动率与隐含波动率

过去一周 BTC 与 ETH 历史波动率在 12.18 最高，隐含波动率整体上升。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

黄色线为历史波动率，蓝色线为隐含波动率，红点是其 7 日平均

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

事件驱动

本周无数据公布。

情绪指标

动量情绪

过去一周比特币/黄金/纳指/恒指/沪深 300 中，比特币最强势，而表现最差的恒指。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

上图为不同资产过去一周的走势

放贷利率_借贷情绪

过去一周 USD 放贷年化收益平均为 13% ，利率持续下跌。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

黄色线为 USD 利率的最高价，蓝色线为最高价的 75% ，红色线为最高价的 75% 的 7 天平均值

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

表格显示 USD 利率过去不同持有天数的平均收益

资金费率_合约杠杆情绪

过去一周 BTC 资费平均年化收益为 14.9% ，最近一天合约杠杆情绪高涨。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

蓝色线为币安上 BTC 的资金费率，红色线为其 7 日平均表格显示 BTC 的资费过去不同持有天数的平均收益

市场宽度_整体情绪

过去一周选中的 129 个在币有 30% 的币在 30 日均线上方，新增币种为所有跟单可交易的合约，上周大量币跌至 30 日均线下方。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

上图为[‘ 1000 floki’, ‘ 1000 lunc’, ‘ 1000 pepe’, ‘ 1000 shib’, ‘ 100 0x ec’, ‘1inch’, ‘aave’, ‘ada’, ‘agix’, ‘algo’, ‘ankr’, ‘ant’, ‘ape’, ‘apt’, ‘arb’, ‘ar’, ‘astr’, ‘atom’, ‘audio’, ‘avax’, ‘axs’, ‘bal’, ‘band’, ‘bat’, ‘bch’, ‘bigtime’, ‘blur’, ‘bnb’, ‘btc’, ‘celo’, ‘cfx’, ‘chz’, ‘ckb’, ‘comp’, ‘crv’, ‘cvx’, ‘cyber’, ‘dash’, ‘dgb’, ‘doge’, ‘dot’, ‘dydx’, ‘egld’, ‘enj’, ‘ens’, ‘eos’,’etc’, ‘eth’, ‘fet’, ‘fil’, ‘flow’, ‘ftm’, ‘fxs’, ‘gala’, ‘gmt’, ‘gmx’, ‘grt’, ‘hbar’, ‘hot’, ‘icp’, ‘icx’, ‘imx’, ‘inj’, ‘iost’, ‘iotx’, ‘jasmy’, ‘kava’, ‘klay’, ‘ksm’, ‘ldo’, ‘link’, ‘loom’, ‘lpt’, ‘lqty’, ‘lrc’, ‘ltc’, ‘luna 2 ’, ‘magic’, ‘mana’, ‘matic’, ‘meme’, ‘mina’, ‘mkr’, ‘near’, ‘neo’, ‘ocean’, ‘one’, ‘ont’, ‘op’, ‘pendle’, ‘qnt’, ‘qtum’, ‘rndr’, ‘rose’, ‘rune’, ‘rvn’, ‘sand’, ‘sei’, ‘sfp’, ‘skl’, ‘snx’, ‘sol’, ‘ssv’, ‘stg’, ‘storj’, ‘stx’, ‘sui’, ‘sushi’, ‘sxp’, ‘theta’, ‘tia’, ‘trx’, ‘t’, ‘uma’, ‘uni’, ‘vet’, ‘waves’, ‘wld’, ‘woo’, ‘xem’, ‘xlm’, ‘xmr’, ‘xrp’, ‘xtz’, ‘yfi’, ‘zec’, ‘zen’, ‘zil’, ‘zrx’]在 30 日均线上方的占比

市场相关性_一致性情绪

过去一周选中的 126 个币中相关性下降至 0.47 左右，不同品种间产生分歧的行情。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

上图蓝色先为比特币价格，绿色线为[‘ 1000 floki’, ‘ 1000 lunc’, ‘ 1000 pepe’, ‘ 1000 shib’, ‘ 100 0x ec’, ‘1inch’, ‘aave’, ‘ada’, ‘agix’, ‘algo’, ‘ankr’, ‘ant’, ‘ape’, ‘apt’, ‘arb’, ‘ar’, ‘astr’, ‘atom’, ‘audio’, ‘avax’, ‘axs’, ‘bal’, ‘band’, ‘bat’, ‘bch’, ‘bigtime’, ‘blur’, ‘bnb’, ‘btc’, ‘celo’, ‘cfx’, ‘chz’, ‘ckb’, ‘comp’, ‘crv’, ‘cvx’, ‘cyber’, ‘dash’, ‘dgb’, ‘doge’, ‘dot’, ‘dydx’, ‘egld’, ‘enj’, ‘ens’, ‘eos’,’etc’, ‘eth’, ‘fet’, ‘fil’, ‘flow’, ‘ftm’, ‘fxs’, ‘gala’, ‘gmt’, ‘gmx’, ‘grt’, ‘hbar’, ‘hot’, ‘icp’, ‘icx’, ‘imx’, ‘inj’, ‘iost’, ‘iotx’, ‘jasmy’, ‘kava’, ‘klay’, ‘ksm’, ‘ldo’, ‘link’, ‘loom’, ‘lpt’, ‘lqty’, ‘lrc’, ‘ltc’, ‘luna 2 ’, ‘magic’, ‘mana’, ‘matic’, ‘meme’, ‘mina’, ‘mkr’, ‘near’, ‘neo’, ‘ocean’, ‘one’, ‘ont’, ‘op’, ‘pendle’, ‘qnt’, ‘qtum’, ‘rndr’, ‘rose’, ‘rune’, ‘rvn’, ‘sand’, ‘sei’, ‘sfp’, ‘skl’, ‘snx’, ‘sol’, ‘ssv’, ‘stg’, ‘storj’, ‘stx’, ‘sui’, ‘sushi’, ‘sxp’, ‘theta’, ‘tia’, ‘trx’, ‘t’, ‘uma’, ‘uni’, ‘vet’, ‘waves’, ‘wld’, ‘woo’, ‘xem’, ‘xlm’, ‘xmr’, ‘xrp’, ‘xtz’, ‘yfi’, ‘zec’, ‘zen’, ‘zil’, ‘zrx’]整体的相关性

市场热点_社交媒体情绪

过去一周热度最高分别的是 sol/algo/near/dot/rose，情绪的上升也伴随较大的涨幅。

加密市场情绪研究报告(12.15 – 12.22)：牛市中的小市值与板块轮动

数据来源： https://lunarcrush.com/categories/cryptocurrencies

总结

本周行情 BTC 有小幅上升，而 ETH 震荡下跌，隐含波动率较上周上升，宽度指标加入了 129 个币安跟单可交易的合约品种，数据显示本周有较多小市值币跌至 30 日均线下方；热点方面 sol/algo/near/dot/rose 近期较高，价格大幅上升；事件方面，等待下个月的美联储议息会议。得益于小币热点跟踪策略，跟单策略过去 7 天收益为 11.5% ，过去 30 天收益为 14% 。

Binance CopyTrading: CTA_ChannelCMT

Twitter: @DerivativesCN

Website: https://dcbot.ai/

Medium:https://medium.com/@DerivativesCN

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