SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231208):ETH乘势上行挑战2400,BTC苦守43000

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2023-12-08Востаннє оновлено о 2023-12-08

Анотація

数字货币方面,BTC还在43000支撑位上方坚守,ETH则继续乘势向上触摸2400美元大关,两者价格上截然不同的走势也反应到了期权市场的变化上。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231208):ETH乘势上行挑战2400,BTC苦守43000

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231208):ETH乘势上行挑战2400,BTC苦守43000

昨日(7 Dec)美国 12 月 2 日当周初请失业金人数录得 220 K,略低于预期 222 K,美债收益率先跌后涨,两年/十年期收益率分别报 4.622% 和 4.175% ,美国三大股指集体收涨,道指/标普/纳指分别收涨 0.18% /0.8% /1.37% 。今晚市场将迎来本周重磅数据非农就业指数,敬请留意相关风险。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231208):ETH乘势上行挑战2400,BTC苦守43000

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231208):ETH乘势上行挑战2400,BTC苦守43000

Source: SignalPlus & TradingView

数字货币方面,BTC 还在 43000 支撑位上方坚守,ETH 则继续乘势向上触摸 2400 美元大关。两者价格上截然不同的走势也反应到了期权市场的变化上,具体来看,BTC IV 再度受 RV 拖累下滑,成交量也是大幅回落, 29 Dec 上一组 Short 44000 Straddle 以单腿高达 1000 BTC 的数量强势表达了看跌年底波动率的观点,同时该到期日上也有大量 43000 vs 40000 的保护性看跌价差成交;另一方面,受价格提振,ETH 呈现出截然不同的表现, 29 Dec 上 2400 的 Long Straddle 成交量达到 18000 组,同时 15 Dec 和 29 Dec 两个到期日上 2400 至 2800 行权价的看涨期权在大宗和 Deribit 散户平台上均有大量建仓购入,不仅抬高了这段的隐含波动率水平,也让 ETH 中前端的 Vol Skew 反弹回到高位。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231208):ETH乘势上行挑战2400,BTC苦守43000

Source: Deribit (截至 8 DEC 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231208):ETH乘势上行挑战2400,BTC苦守43000

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231208):ETH乘势上行挑战2400,BTC苦守43000

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231208):ETH乘势上行挑战2400,BTC苦守43000

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231208):ETH乘势上行挑战2400,BTC苦守43000

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231208):ETH乘势上行挑战2400,BTC苦守43000

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Пов'язані матеріали

Crypto Market Prices the Verdict: $1.8 Billion Bet on Do Kwon's Sentencing Outcome

The cryptocurrency market is witnessing an extraordinary $1.8 billion in futures trading volume for LUNA and LUNA2 tokens, despite their lack of fundamental value. This surge in speculative activity is directly tied to the upcoming sentencing hearing of Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon in a New York federal court on December 11th. Prosecutors are seeking a 12-year prison sentence for Kwon’s role in the $40 billion Terra-LUNA collapse, while his defense team is arguing for a 5-year term. This 7-year discrepancy has created a high-stakes betting environment. The market is characterized by extreme divergence, with a high volume of short positions (indicated by negative funding rates) and a powerful counter-force of buyers attempting to squeeze those shorts. The article argues that the current LUNA traders are not the original victims of the crash but are now primarily event-driven speculators, quantitative funds, and opportunistic traders. For them, LUNA has been transformed from a failed project into a pure "legal derivative," a volatile instrument whose price is entirely driven by the legal outcome of Kwon's case, devoid of any fundamental anchor. The author concludes that regardless of the sentencing outcome—whether a harsh or light sentence—the event's conclusion will likely cause LUNA's price to collapse. A harsh sentence would reaffirm its zero fundamental value, while a light sentence would trigger a "sell the news" event. This situation exemplifies the crypto market's cold, hyper-efficient ability to price and monetize anything, including justice and a person's freedom, reducing moral judgment to mere noise against the pursuit of volatility and profit.

比推16 хв тому

Crypto Market Prices the Verdict: $1.8 Billion Bet on Do Kwon's Sentencing Outcome

比推16 хв тому

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