Why Bitcoin can hit $160K in the next bull run

AmbcryptoОпубліковано о 2023-07-07Востаннє оновлено о 2023-07-07

Анотація

Analyst Sulivan anticipates that Bitcoin will peak between $160,288 and $206,824 during the fourth halving’s bullish cycle.

Bitcoin’s latest prediction placed the peak of the next bull run above $160,000.

The S2F timeline for the next rally peak is expected to take place between 2024 and 2025.

Many have tried to accurately predict Bitcoin’s [BTC] cycle peaks and bottoms with little to no accuracy. PlanB’s stock to flow model (S2F) is perhaps one of the classic examples of a highly publicized strategy.

Unfortunately, PlanB’s S2F model failed to accurately predict the market top in 2021. But could there be a more accurate version of the stock to flow model?

Well, CryptoQuant analyst Gigi Sulivan recently conducted an S2F analysis of Bitcoin. It might offer some clarity about what to expect before, during and after the next Bitcoin halving.

Source: CryptoQuant

According to Gigi Sulivan’s analysis, BTC’s S2F chart registers a spike during each halving. A bull run has historically taken place after each halving, leading to a new peak, followed by a bear market.

The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place in May 2024. A bull run might be on the cards if it maintains characteristics similar to those observed during previous halving events.

Attainable or too ambitious?

Sulivan’s analysis anticipates that Bitcoin will peak between $160,288 and $206,824 during the fourth halving’s bullish cycle. Interestingly, S2F predictions during the previous two halvings were notably lower than the actual peaks.

This means Bitcoin could rally well above $260,000 during the next bullish cycle.

Source: CryptoQuant

But is the predicted price for the next cycle really attainable? Well, some past predictions have much higher expectations regarding Bitcoin’s price in the future.

For example, some believe that Bitcoin might be worth over $1 million in the future. This means the prediction based on this S2F analysis is a bit more attainable, especially in the near term.

Bitcoin will need a lot of liquidity to push into the predicted prices. Fortunately, this prediction aligned with some interesting market observations.

For example, institutional demand for BTC has recovered significantly in the last few months. In addition, multiple Bitcoin ETFs were pending approval at press time. They might supercharge BTC’s ascent in the months leading to the halving next year.

While Bitcoin traders should take note of these predictions, it is also important to note that they are speculative. This means they do not guarantee that prices will soar to those levels.

The market is known to be quite unpredictable and hence there is a significant probability that things might not turn out as expected. On the other hand, a rally past the predicted levels is also possible.

Пов'язані матеріали

In Conversation with Ray Dalio: We Are Currently in an AI Bubble, with 1% of My Portfolio in Bitcoin

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns in an interview that the current AI boom shows classic bubble characteristics, which could lead to significant economic downturns as seen in past cycles like 1929 or 2000. He explains that speculative enthusiasm, fueled by debt and overvaluation, often precedes a crash when rising rates or taxation force asset sales, causing widespread losses and recession. Dalio also outlines his "Big Cycle" theory, describing an approximate 80-year pattern where widening wealth gaps, massive government deficits, and shifting geopolitical power (like China's rise) create internal conflict and global instability. He emphasizes that we are in a late-cycle, transitional phase where traditional powers like the US and UK face decline. For personal wealth protection, Dalio advises diversification beyond cash into assets like stocks, bonds, real estate, and particularly gold, which he prefers over Bitcoin. While he holds about 1% of his portfolio in Bitcoin as a non-printable hard asset, he views gold as more secure from technological or governmental threats. Regarding AI's impact, Dalio believes it will disproportionately benefit capital owners, worsening inequality by replacing both physical and cognitive labor. He suggests that human intuition and emotional intelligence, combined with AI, will be key for future workers. On taxation, Dalio argues that wealth taxes are impractical and risk triggering asset sell-offs, reducing productive investment. He points to the UK as a cautionary example of debt, low productivity, and political strife. Geopolitically, Dalio foresees a more regionalized world, with the US showing weakness in prolonged conflicts like with Iran, akin to past imperial declines. The ideal outcome, he suggests, is coexisting powerful blocs (e.g., Americas, China-Asia Pacific) without major war.

marsbit2 год тому

In Conversation with Ray Dalio: We Are Currently in an AI Bubble, with 1% of My Portfolio in Bitcoin

marsbit2 год тому

Daily 7.2 Trillion KRW: Foreign Capital's Record Net Buying on Friday! Wall Street Says Headwinds for Korean Stock Fund Flows Have Subsided

South Korean stock market sees a dramatic shift in fund flows. On July 31, foreign investors made a record net purchase of approximately KRW 7.2 trillion in KOSPI stocks, marking a fundamental reversal from the persistent large-scale net outflows seen in previous months. This contributed to a significant narrowing of foreign net selling in July to KRW 9.8 trillion, down sharply from KRW 48.4 trillion in June and KRW 44.5 trillion in May. Simultaneously, domestic institutional pressure eased. South Korean pension funds and asset managers turned to a net buying position in July, purchasing KRW 1.0 trillion worth of KOSPI shares, contrasting with net sales in May and June. Market volatility is expected to be dampened by new financial regulations. Effective July 31, the Financial Services Commission tightened access for retail investors to single-stock leveraged ETFs by raising the minimum cash deposit requirement. Trading volumes for these products subsequently dropped to about 50% of their monthly average. Citigroup Research maintains its year-end KOSPI target of 10,000 points. The firm cites several supportive factors: the substantial easing of headwinds from capital outflows, a robust fundamental outlook for the semiconductor sector, historically low market valuations, strong economic fundamentals, and the potential for policy support from financial authorities if needed.

marsbit2 год тому

Daily 7.2 Trillion KRW: Foreign Capital's Record Net Buying on Friday! Wall Street Says Headwinds for Korean Stock Fund Flows Have Subsided

marsbit2 год тому

Breaking! OpenAI's Next-Gen AI Solves 10 Fields Medal-Level Problems

OpenAI's next-generation AI model Astra achieves breakthroughs in 10 long-standing mathematical conjectures. The results, including constructing the first known infinite, finitely presented non-sofic group—resolving a major question since 1999—and advancing the high-dimensional sphere packing problem beyond a 46-year-old barrier, are detailed in a 249-page paper. Key proofs have been formally verified using Lean 4. The AI also refuted a rigidity conjecture by Fields Medalist Alain Connes. According to OpenAI, generating these proofs cost under $2,000. Experts describe the findings as potentially Fields Medal-worthy and a landmark moment for both mathematics and AI, showcasing the model's ability to produce profound, human-like reasoning across diverse fields like group theory, geometry, and operator algebras.

marsbit4 год тому

Breaking! OpenAI's Next-Gen AI Solves 10 Fields Medal-Level Problems

marsbit4 год тому

How to Make Yourself Irreplaceable by AI Forever

This article argues that the primary threat from AI is not job replacement, but remaining trapped in "wage slavery"—financial dependence on employers. The path to becoming irreplaceable is not resisting AI, but becoming an "unemployable" individual who builds their own meaningful enterprise. The author identifies five key elements for this: Agency (acting without permission), Taste (judging what's worthwhile), Persuasion, Persistence, and Iteration. The solution is to stop being a "pawn" in someone else's game. To start, you must fundamentally change your identity and environment, then engage in rapid, real-world trial and error. While both coding and creating media (content) are powerful, content is more crucial. AI can generate assets, but true value lies in subjective, human-driven content that builds trust and narrative. The actionable advice is to carve out 15 minutes to answer foundational questions: 1) Uncover your "raw material"—what you know deeply or solve effortlessly. 2) Define your contrarian perspective—what common beliefs you think are wrong. The intersection of these answers is your direction. Finally, you must launch by publishing your first core idea immediately, using the feedback to iterate and develop the skills needed for a self-directed life and career.

marsbit4 год тому

How to Make Yourself Irreplaceable by AI Forever

marsbit4 год тому

Thanks to Dice Rolls, Bitcoin Keys Are Stored Offline, But Not Everyone Will Do It

The article discusses using dice rolls to generate secure Bitcoin wallet seeds, providing entropy independent of potentially flawed hardware random number generators. It explains that each fair dice roll offers about 2.585 bits of entropy, with around 50 rolls needed for a standard 12-word seed phrase and 99+ recommended for higher security. This method gained attention after a vulnerability was revealed in some Coldcard hardware wallets, where a faulty firmware RNG (dating back to 2021) compromised generated keys. The analysis notes that while a dice-generated main seed was safe from this specific flaw, other Coldcard functions (like creating paper wallets, backup keys, or passwords) could still be vulnerable if they used the defective RNG. The piece argues that while dice-based entropy is technically robust, the manual process is error-prone, tedious, and unrealistic for most new users, who might make mistakes in recording or inputting rolls. It concludes that while manual entropy generation should remain an option for advanced users, the long-term goal is to develop reliable, user-friendly hardware and software that securely generates randomness without requiring specialized knowledge. Coldcard users are advised to check their firmware version and replace any secondary secrets (like paper wallet keys) created with vulnerable devices, while also considering multi-signature setups with devices from different manufacturers for added security.

cryptonews.ru7 год тому

Thanks to Dice Rolls, Bitcoin Keys Are Stored Offline, But Not Everyone Will Do It

cryptonews.ru7 год тому

Торгівля

Спот