Bitcoin Circulation Rate Remains Low, Why This Could Be Bad For Rally

newsbtcОпубліковано о 2023-04-10Востаннє оновлено о 2023-04-10

Анотація

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin circulation rate has continued to be low recently, something that may be bad news for the current BTC rally. Bitcoin Circulation Has Remained Low Despite...

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin circulation rate has continued to be low recently, something that may be bad news for the current BTC rally.
According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, 105,000 BTC is moving per day currently. The relevant indicator here is the “circulation,” which measures the unique daily number of Bitcoin tokens that are showing some movement on the blockchain.
Since the metric only counts unique coins, it means that if a token has been shifted on the network multiple times in a single day, its movement will still contribute only one unit toward the circulation indicator.
The reason the metric has this restriction is that a large number of the same coins move around a lot on the chain on any given day, with only a handful of investors being responsible for their movements. Many such transactions are relay transfers and other duplicate movements, which don’t actually have much relevance to the market.
Thus, if the indicator counted just the pure number of tokens being moved around, regardless of whether they were unique or not, an inaccurate picture regarding the chain activity may appear.
When the value of the circulation is high, it means a large number of unique tokens are seeing some transaction activity right now. Such a trend implies the blockchain is likely observing participation from a high amount of unique users.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in Bitcoin circulation, as well as in its 30-day moving average (MA), over the last year:

Looks like the value of the metric has been quite low in recent days | Source: Santiment on Twitter
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin circulation has remained at relatively low levels for quite a while now. The 3AC collapse back in June 2022 and the FTX crash in November 2022 was the last couple of instances where the indicator hit some high values.
These surges in the metric weren’t unexpected, as crashes of this kind generally attract a large number of new users to the network (and wake up some dormant old ones), thus leading to a spike in the unique number of tokens being moved across wallets on the blockchain.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Korea Premium Index Turns Red, Decline Incoming?
Just like crashes can force people to make some moves, rallies can also have a similar effect on the network. However, despite the fact that the current rally started back in January of this year, the Bitcoin circulation hasn’t shown any significant uptick so far.
According to the 30-day MA of the metric, coins are being moved at a rate of 105,000 per day, which is 56% less than the one-year highs seen back in June 2022.
“When looking for validation of mid/long term bull runs, utility should be rising,” explains Santiment. As the utility of the cryptocurrency hasn’t increased recently, it’s possible that the rally may run out of steam before long.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $28,300, down 1% in the last week.

BTC has been moving sideways in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Santiment.net

Пов'язані матеріали

Just Now, Anthropic Unveils Physical MCP: Claude Begins Controlling the Real World

Anthropic has announced the Model Hardware Standard (MHS), a new standard enabling AI agents like Claude to safely control physical devices. Building on the Model Context Protocol (MCP), MHS standardizes communication between AI agents and hardware such as microscopes, robotic arms, and lasers, marking a significant step for AI from the digital into the physical world. Developed in collaboration with HHMI Janelia Research Campus, MHS uses standardized drivers to translate basic commands (e.g., read, write) into a format any programmable device can understand. This drastically reduces integration time from weeks to hours or minutes and allows agents to discover and operate new devices using natural language tags that describe machine properties and safety limits. Agents can control devices via MCP, command-line interfaces, or APIs. They can sequence operations, monitor results, adjust parameters in real-time, and generate deterministic scripts for long-running tasks. Early tests show Claude interacting with hardware exploratively, like a scientist, learning to calibrate a laser and scripting the process. Early adopters and partners include AWS, Automata, Danaher, Doosan Robotics, and Tecan, who are integrating MHS support into their platforms. While promising, challenges remain: Claude's physical reasoning is limited, requiring expert oversight, and MHS currently only works with programmable hardware. Anthropic plans further refinements and broader device support before open-sourcing the standard.

marsbit4 хв тому

Just Now, Anthropic Unveils Physical MCP: Claude Begins Controlling the Real World

marsbit4 хв тому

History's Only Asset with a 100% Win Rate After 4 Years of Holding

**Title: The Only Asset with a 100% Win Rate Over Any 4-Year Holding Period** This article analyzes which major, freely-tradable assets have historically never produced a nominal loss over any rolling 4-year holding window. It concludes that only two distinct categories achieve this: ultra-low-risk contractual assets and Bitcoin. Among traditional risk assets, none maintain a perfect 4-year record. The S&P 500 had negative 4-year periods (e.g., 1929-1932: -64.8%). The Nasdaq 100 fell roughly 60% from 2000-2003. Gold saw a ~47.7% loss from 1981-1984. US real estate declined about 23.3% from 2007-2010. Even long-term US Treasury bonds (e.g., 2021-2024: -19.8%) and corporate bonds can produce 4-year losses due to interest rate and market price risks. In contrast, the first category achieving 100% nominal success includes assets like rolling 3-month US Treasury Bills, 4-year certificates of deposit (CDs), and US Treasuries held to maturity within 4 years. Their "guarantee" stems from contractual obligations and credit backing (e.g., FDIC insurance, US sovereign promise), not price appreciation. The sole exception in the high-risk category is Bitcoin. Analysis of daily data from 2010-2026 across 4,419 rolling 4-year windows shows a 100% positive return rate. The worst 4-year period (April 2021 to April 2025) still yielded a +32.6% total return (~7.3% CAGR). This record is unique because Bitcoin has no issuer, promises no cash flows, and has endured severe drawdowns (70-90%), yet its market price has always recovered within a 4-year span. The key distinction is the source of the "100%": contractual assets offer known, low nominal returns, while Bitcoin's record stems purely from historical price appreciation despite extreme volatility. The article suggests that for Bitcoin, the ability to hold for 4+ years is more critical than active trading strategies.

marsbit11 хв тому

History's Only Asset with a 100% Win Rate After 4 Years of Holding

marsbit11 хв тому

How One Article Moved 45 Billion: The Collapse of a 25-Year-Old 'AI Stock Guru'

This article details the dramatic rise and near-collapse of a hedge fund built by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a 24-year-old former OpenAI researcher. The fund, named Situational Awareness, amassed $45 billion in assets within two years. Its explosive growth stemmed from Aschenbrenner's influential 165-page manifesto predicting AGI's arrival by 2027 and his high-profile Silicon Valley connections. The fund employed an extremely aggressive strategy: high concentration and 400% leverage to bet long on AI infrastructure stocks while shorting legacy software firms. In July, this structure backfired when both sides of the trade reversed simultaneously—AI stocks plunged while shorted stocks rallied—triggering massive losses that nearly wiped out all equity. Major player Jane Street reportedly lost billions. The fund's leveraged public portfolio was ultimately sold at a discount to Citadel. The SEC is now investigating banks like Goldman Sachs for their role in facilitating the fund's high-leverage trades. The article compares this to past blow-ups like Archegos, highlighting systemic failures in risk management where the pursuit of short-term profits overrode due diligence. It questions whether such risky leverage concentrated in the AI sector, currently at record highs, poses a broader systemic threat. Ironically, Aschenbrenner, who studied AI safety at OpenAI, designed a fund structure prone to uncontrolled failure. Days after the crisis, he reportedly raised another $400 million for new investments.

marsbit25 хв тому

How One Article Moved 45 Billion: The Collapse of a 25-Year-Old 'AI Stock Guru'

marsbit25 хв тому

AI Accelerates Everything: Mathematics's Line of Defense Has Fallen, Physics is Already in AI's Crosshairs

This summer, the mathematics community was shaken as OpenAI's Astra model reportedly solved 10 long-standing open problems, and Claude Fable 5 found a potential counterexample to the Jacobian conjecture. This was followed by a major shift in physics: renowned physicist Gavin E. Crooks presented an open problem in stochastic thermodynamics to Claude, which the AI solved completely in days—a task that might take a skilled graduate student months. The problem concerned constraints on entropy production statistics under the Detailed Fluctuation Theorem (DFT), a core concept in non-equilibrium physics. Claude provided a unifying geometric answer: all possible DFT-compatible distributions correspond to a convex "moment body." Its key insight was that for a fixed "gap," the distribution is uniquely determined, making any general DFT distribution a mixture of these basic two-outcome distributions. This structure implies that for given lower-order moments, the nth moment only has a sharp lower bound, with no upper bound. Claude demonstrated that numerous previously published bounds on entropy production are merely low-dimensional projections or "shadows" of this single, unified convex body. The AI-authored paper offers a complete hierarchical characterization of the moment constraints. This case signifies a potential paradigm shift: AI is progressing from solving known problems to aiding in the exploration of fundamental, unsolved scientific questions, heralding an AI-accelerated era for physics.

marsbit26 хв тому

AI Accelerates Everything: Mathematics's Line of Defense Has Fallen, Physics is Already in AI's Crosshairs

marsbit26 хв тому

Fidelity Representative Comments on the Latest Sensational Move by the U.S. Treasury Department Regarding Bitcoin's Future

A representative from Fidelity Investments has commented on recent U.S. Treasury actions and their potential impact on Bitcoin. Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity, stated that the U.S. Treasury's increased buyback of long-term bonds coupled with a focus on issuing short-term Treasury bills is putting pressure on the U.S. dollar while simultaneously supporting Bitcoin and gold. Timmer noted that the dollar weakened last week following these Treasury maneuvers, and the concurrent sharp rise in gold and Bitcoin prices reflects market expectations of a potential shift toward "fiscal dominance" and a possible erosion of Federal Reserve independence. He suggested that to successfully maintain low long-term bond yields, the Treasury's bond buyback program might need significant expansion. This scenario could force the Fed to intervene with a form of "Operation Twist" policy, potentially increasing currency debasement risk. Timmer concluded that a combination of stimulative fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy creates a particularly negative backdrop for the dollar but is clearly favorable for gold, and Bitcoin could also benefit.

cryptonews.ru3 год тому

Fidelity Representative Comments on the Latest Sensational Move by the U.S. Treasury Department Regarding Bitcoin's Future

cryptonews.ru3 год тому

Торгівля

Спот