【一周靓文】市场恐慌消退,机会或正显现

火币资讯Опубліковано о 2023-03-18Востаннє оновлено о 2023-03-18

Анотація

一周靓文,回顾过去一周最值得关注的热点文章,帮您快速理解市场动态。

一周靓文,介绍过去一周最值得关注的热点文章,帮助投资者深刻理解市场动态。

1、FUD惊魂

《比特币跌破20000美元,硅谷银行连累了加密市场?》

加密货币基金管理公司 BitBull Capital 的首席执行官 Joe DiPasquale 则做出分析: “ Silvergate 是比特币下行测试的几个因素之一。除此之外,FOMC 的进一步加息和股市走软、SEC 的审查,都在促进市场下行。综合来看,市场继续收紧并重新测试支撑位。正如我们自 1 月以来所说,我们相信,在再次上涨之前,BTC 将测试 2 万美元以下的支撑位。我们认为 1.8 万美元将是下一个主要支撑水平。”

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《惊魂一周,加密行业的「危机」或才开始》

综合来看,今年真正的「黑天鹅」或许仍未到来,加密市场大概将继续接受考验。而从周期角度看,明年有人已经描绘了一个美好的愿景,从高盛的分析看,美联储将在 2024 年降息一次;而比特币下一次减半预计发生在 2024 年 4 月 20 日,如果历史重演,根据 Plan B 的数据模型计算,那么在下一个减半之前比特币将涨到 3.6 万美元,之后涨到 14.9 万美元。这两个周期叠加,我们似乎有理由怀揣对明年的期待,至于今年,请一定小心谨慎。

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2、市场反弹

《2008与2023银行业暴雷对比及加密投资机会》

近期银行业危机和硅谷银行的快速倒闭,很容易让人联想到2008年金融危机中破产的雷曼兄弟银行。那这两次银行业暴雷有什么异同,对加密市场而言又蕴含着怎样机会呢?

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《Silvergate、SVB 和 Signature 倒下,加密公司寻找银行「后浪」》

在 Silvergate Bank、硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank:SVB) 和 Signature Bank 三个著名的加密银行合作伙伴突然倒闭后,加密初创公司寻求扩展新的银行业务,这包括 Mercury、Brex 和 Customers Bank 等替代银行服务。

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3、捕捉风口

《【研报精选】USDC差点暴雷,哪些稳定币大有可为?》

旧有的USDC和DAI出现了脱钩,没有脱钩的USDT则一直无法证明自己的代币有足额的现金抵押。在老牌稳定币陷入信任危机的同时,我们不妨把目光转向新兴的去中心化稳定币项目。

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《【研报精选】一文读懂以太坊质押提款的工作原理》

由于上海升级将在今年上半年启动,所以值得注意和理解什么是提款,其工作机制,以及这个新特性的使用方法。

提款功能将随着上海升级推出,自从共识链启动以来第一次使用户的共识奖励变得可用。一旦设置好之后,它们就会自动地为任何验证者所用。

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Пов'язані матеріали

Breaking News: Full Detailed Rationale and Explanation of the Fed's Interest Rate Decision Released!

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75 percent, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision passed with a 9-3 majority vote. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan dissented, voting in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike. This was the first meeting since 2016 where three regional Fed presidents voted against holding rates steady, signaling growing influence among members advocating for tighter monetary policy to combat inflation. The Fed's statement noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace despite high uncertainty, partly due to Middle East conflicts. It highlighted that growth in productivity and investment remained strong, employment gains have aligned with labor force growth, and the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable. The Fed also committed to maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. The statement emphasized that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. It noted that supply shocks, including in the energy sector, are adding to inflationary pressures. The Committee stated it will continue to closely monitor incoming data and risks in pursuit of its price stability goal. The dissenting members argued that the target range for the federal funds rate should have been increased by 25 basis points.

cryptonews.ru17 хв тому

Breaking News: Full Detailed Rationale and Explanation of the Fed's Interest Rate Decision Released!

cryptonews.ru17 хв тому

The Fed's Interest Rate Decision is Inevitable! Former Senior Fed Advisor Reveals His Forecast for Today!

Former Federal Reserve senior advisor John Faust stated he does not expect the Fed to raise interest rates at the FOMC meeting concluding today. He argued the Fed will not try to win credibility by deliberately surprising markets. In his assessment, Faust noted that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has used strong rhetoric on restoring price stability but largely failed to share details on how he plans to achieve it. This information gap has led to various market scenarios. However, Faust believes the reality is simpler: Warsh positions himself as a pragmatic, tough-minded policymaker, placing high importance on monetary policy communication while showing flexibility regarding balance sheet reduction. Faust compared Warsh's approach to the "refined intuitive approach" used by former Chairman Alan Greenspan. Faust stated that, unlike strict policy rules, this approach does not yield clear-cut answers on rate decisions. In current conditions, both a 25-basis-point hike and waiting for the next meeting could be reasonably justified. Aligning with market expectations, Faust predicts the Fed will choose to wait today. He believes the benefit of waiting outweighs the negatives, partly because he agrees that deliberately surprising markets to boost credibility is not a valid factor. Faust also argued there is no substantial macroeconomic difference between hiking today and holding steady, as a 25-basis-point move over eight weeks alone is not economically decisive. He emphasized that the important aspect will not be the decision itself, but how it is explained to markets. Warsh has so far advocated forward-looking policy without clear guidance on economic forecasts or the likely rate path. Faust warned that if the Fed does not explicitly state grounds for a hike and opts to wait for more data, markets may misinterpret the decision's meaning. Regardless of today's outcome, how Warsh explains the policy decisions at the meeting and press conference may be the most critical information for investors.

cryptonews.ru51 хв тому

The Fed's Interest Rate Decision is Inevitable! Former Senior Fed Advisor Reveals His Forecast for Today!

cryptonews.ru51 хв тому

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