【研报精选】比特币二月市场研报（2/2）

火必研究院Опубліковано о 2023-03-08Востаннє оновлено о 2023-03-09

Анотація

在2月下旬，比特币和以太坊的资金费率持续维持高位，市场看涨情绪不减。伴随着美元指数的上行，比特币抛压不减。此外，返向逆回购指标也现实，抛压加大。

Пов'язані матеріали

$134 Million in Bitcoin Long Positions 'Evaporated' as BTC Price Dropped Below $63K Ahead of Critical Fed Meeting

Bitcoin's price tumbled below $63,000 on Tuesday, leading to a sharp spike in leveraged long position liquidations totaling $134 million and bringing total BTC-related liquidations over $156 million. The drop, which saw BTC briefly hit a daily low near $62,684, extended its monthly losses to 4%. Market experts are pointing to a pivotal week ahead, highlighted by the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, core PCE inflation data, and major earnings reports from companies like Apple and Amazon. According to analysts, the tone from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference will be crucial. A dovish Fed stance coupled with strong AI capex forecasts and positive PCE data could propel Bitcoin toward $68,000-$70,000 in August. Conversely, hawkish signals alongside disappointing corporate earnings could quickly bring the $58,000-$60,000 range back into view.

cryptonews.ru9 хв тому

$134 Million in Bitcoin Long Positions 'Evaporated' as BTC Price Dropped Below $63K Ahead of Critical Fed Meeting

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The 'Clarity Act', a pro-crypto bill, has flaws: Action is needed today

The likelihood that the U.S. Senate will vote on the CLARITY Act, a bill aiming to establish a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market, before the August summer recess appears low. Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that expectations are diminishing for Senate Majority Leader John Thune to file cloture to end debate and initiate a voting process this week. According to Senate procedures, Thune needed to file the motion to proceed on the bill today for a potential Thursday vote. However, sources close to the process indicate priority is expected to be given to legislation involving sanctions against Russia and Iran. Consequently, the crypto sector's focus has shifted to next week. Industry representatives argue that even if a final vote on the CLARITY Act does not occur before the holiday break, it is crucial for the Senate leadership to at least begin the cloture process prior to the August recess. Failing to initiate this process before the break could delay the bill's consideration until the fall legislative session, further postponing comprehensive cryptocurrency market regulation in the United States.

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The 'Clarity Act', a pro-crypto bill, has flaws: Action is needed today

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Morgan Stanley expands crypto lineup with Ether, Solana ETPs

Morgan Stanley Investment Management has expanded its cryptocurrency offerings by launching two new exchange-traded products (ETPs) tracking Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL). The Morgan Stanley Ethereum Trust (MSSE) and Morgan Stanley Solana Trust (MSOL) aim to track the performance of their respective cryptocurrencies using designated settlement rate benchmarks from CoinDesk. Both funds feature a 0.14% expense ratio and plan to stake a portion of their holdings, with staking rewards distributed to investors. This launch follows the firm's recent introduction of spot crypto trading on its E*TRADE platform. In April, Morgan Stanley became the first major U.S. commercial bank to offer a spot Bitcoin ETF, the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), which has grown to over $381 million in assets.

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Morgan Stanley expands crypto lineup with Ether, Solana ETPs

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Bitcoin Expert Commentary Ahead of Fed Decision: 'Everything Will Be Different'

Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, suggests that the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions may have a less decisive impact on Bitcoin's price over the next five years compared to the past. He argues that future interest rate fluctuations are likely to be more limited in scale. Historically, Bitcoin experienced rate swings measured in full percentage points (e.g., 0% to 5%). In contrast, current market expectations, per CME data, point to a total increase of around 50 basis points over the next year. Hougan believes such smaller moves will have a more muted effect on Bitcoin. He further speculates that the Fed, under potential future leadership, might adopt a policy of smaller, gradual adjustments akin to the mid-1990s Greenspan era, rather than the large-scale shifts seen more recently. While interest rates will remain relevant, their market influence is expected to diminish. Other factors like institutional adoption, regulatory changes, capital flows, and Bitcoin-specific supply/demand dynamics are predicted to become more significant price drivers in the coming years.

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Bitcoin Expert Commentary Ahead of Fed Decision: 'Everything Will Be Different'

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Zcash's 10x Growth in a Year Fails to Save Mining Company Fortitude from Losses

Despite a 1000% annual increase in the price of Zcash (ZEC), mining company Fortitude Mining Holdings, owned by Barry Silbert's Digital Currency Group, is facing significant losses and debt issues. According to an SEC filing, Fortitude took on a $26 million loan in June 2026, with over $8.3 million borrowed before issuing an investment prospectus that claimed no outstanding debt. The company positions itself as a leader in Zcash mining, but only 28% of its $89 million 2025 mining revenue came from ZEC, with 65% derived from Bitcoin. Fortitude reported net losses of $14.3 million in 2024, $12.6 million in 2025, and $4.6 million in Q1 2026. It presented a positive adjusted EBITDA of $20 million by adding substantial depreciation costs, which in mining represent real equipment wear-and-tear expenses. Furthermore, its merger partner, AI software developer HeartSciences Inc., reported only $4,000 in revenue over a recent 12-month period and has seen its stock decline by 34% from June highs after an initial spike. Upon merger completion, the combined entity will trade under the ticker "TUDE," with DCG retaining a majority stake.

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Zcash's 10x Growth in a Year Fails to Save Mining Company Fortitude from Losses

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