对话Luna创始人Do Kwon:UST的比特币赌局

区块律动Опубліковано о 2022-03-31Востаннє оновлено о 2022-03-31

Анотація

Do Kwon表示,除了中本聪,我们会成为全球最大的 BTC 单一持有者。

从 1 月 27 日开始,被标记为 Luna 基金会(Luna Foundation Guard,LFG)的地址里比特币持仓量不断增加,平均两天增持约 3000 枚 BTC。

外汇

Luna 基金会持仓数据,律动将持续更新
Terra 发展至今已经成为了加密行业不可忽视的庞大生态,TVL 仅次于以太坊、UST 也成为了第四大 Stablecoin。但在生态不断生长的同时,不少人也开始担心 LUNA 死亡螺旋的风险。
此前,Tether 的 USDT 也曾持有部分 BTC 作为抵押,因此不少人将 LFG 此次购入 BTC 的行为视为对「LUNA 庞氏」的支撑。
然而 UST 与 USDT 有着很大的区别,UST 的目标是成为全球最大的去中心化 Stablecoin,这就要求 UST 保持中立的资产身份。在这样的背景下,将 BTC 纳入 UST 背书体系就有了超越简单经济学的意义。
最近 Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon 接受了知名加密播客《Unchained Podcast》采访,回答了 UST 新背书机制和 Anchor 收益的有关问题,律动 BlockBeats 将相关内容整理翻译如下:
关于 UST 新背书机制
新机制如何运行?
LFG 最近宣布,正在通过 BTC 启动一个大规模外汇储蓄。LFG 为其提供了 30 亿美元启动金,但 LFG 希望 BTC 储蓄能在未来一年成为 UST 市值的重要部分。
此前,用户需要用 1 美元 LUNA 兑换 1 UST,目的是通过 LUNA 的张缩来吸收对于去中心化 stablecoin 的需求波动。目前 Terra 的这个机制非常成功,UST 已经成为第 4 大 Stablecoin,市值 160 亿美元。按照目前的发展趋势,不久后就超过 DAI 将成为第 3 大 Stablecoin。
Do Kwon 表示,我们可以把这一新的机制看作是一个碎片化的外汇储蓄。在此之前,铸造 1 枚 UST,你需要销毁价值 1 美元的 LUNA。现在不同的是,当 1 枚 UST 被铸造时,一部分比例的 LUNA 会被销毁,剩下一部分将会被用于购买生态外资产(目前 BTC),以保障去中心化的外汇储蓄。这一比例并非是固定的,目前它将取决于 UST 兑 BTC 的实时价格,即 BTC 的波动性,具体比例则由 DAO 来决定。
当 BTC 储蓄构建到一定程度,比如 40% 时,LUNA 发生死亡螺旋的概率就极大地减小了。因为虽说 LUNA 仍是稳定 UST 的核心组件,但 BTC 储蓄可以在极端情况下有效减缓新铸造 LUNA 进入市场的速度。
从长远出发,LFG 计划 Terra 协议成为世界最大的单 BTC 持仓地址。也就是说,LFG 是在赌未来 BTC 的价格仍会有很好的表现。这样一来,未来的 BTC 准备金率会远高于今天 LFG 购买 BTC 时的比例,也会有更强的能力应对未来 UST 的需求波动。
为何做出这一改变?
Do Kwon 解释,首先是经济学角度的原因,LUNA-UST 的这一系统已经足够并且越来越稳健。但要承认的是,在市场需求发生极端变化的情况下,LUNA 会面临着死亡螺旋的风险,即 LUNA 价格下跌的同时,UST 市值大幅收缩。
LUNA 最初的用例还比较有限,生态内最大的开发者还是 Terraform Labs,但现在 Terra 已经是一个庞大的生态,TVL 仅次于以太坊,生态内应用涉及杠杆、期权、外汇、利率掉期、meme 等。
在这种情况下,对于 UST 的需求已无法再准确估量。同时,还有大量的 UST 被转移到了其他公链生态,无论是以太坊上的 Curve、Solana 上的 Saber,还是 Avalanche 上的 Trader Joe 及 Pangolin,UST 都是 TVL 最大的算稳池。
很多出口型经济体都会构建自己的多样化外汇储蓄,以应对自身货币的短期需求波动。从这个角度出发,Terra 构建自己的外汇储蓄就成了一种自然而然的选择。当然为了符合 Terra 去中心化的理念,LFG 会建立一个智能合约,用户辅助 BTC 和 UST 之间的兑换流程。
其次是外交角度的原因,这是人们很少谈到的。Terra 的目标就是成为加密行业最大的去中心化货币系统,UST 不仅应用于 Terra 生态,还会扩展到 Solana、Avalanche、Polygon 等有活跃开发者和用户的生态。
与 Terra 生态里培养的原生用户不同,其他公链生态内的用户对 LUNA 背书的信任程度是有所衰减的。这时将 BTC 作为背书或者储蓄的一部分,能有效的提升这些用户对 UST 的信任,因为加密行业很少有人会质疑 BTC 的价值储藏能力。
换句话说,BTC 的作用就是让 UST 成为一个更加中立的资产,以促进其向各个生态扩张。
如何实现机制的转变?
建设完成的外汇储蓄将由一个智能合约控制,人们可以存入桥接后的 BTC 以铸造 UST,反之亦然。
具体来说,我们可以把这个智能合约看作是一个只接受两个池的 DEX,一个池存储 UST,另一个存储 BTC,而外部的预言机将为这个 DEX 提供 BTC 的实时报价。用户存入 BTC,并根据预言机提供的汇率换取 UST。
而用户在存入 UST 后,只能赎回 99% 的 BTC,1% 的价差则能保证外汇储蓄只会在 UST 脱钩时才会被启动。
这其中有几个人们常有的疑问:
首先一个问题,就是跨链桥的安全性。目前跨链桥出现安全隐患的重要原因,是市场的整体竞争环境。一个跨链桥项目需要尽快的支持各条 L1、L2 公链,以抢占市场份额。这使得团队将绝大多数时间花在了跨链集成和商业发展上,没有足够的时间确保底层技术架构的安全性。
与 WBTC 的多签方案不同,LFG 正在轻客户端方向筛选最为去信任化的桥接方式。
尽管跨链桥存在着无法克服的「天生问题」,但 LFG 希望能在移除市场竞争的因素后,为 BTC 与 UST 储蓄合约之间打造一个更为安全的跨链桥。在此之前,LFG 购买的 BTC 都存放于委员会的多签钱包中。
LFG 目前仍在审阅各个针对 BTC 跨链的项目提案,比如 Cosmos 生态的 Axelar、Block Stacks 社区等。并打算在最初采用多样化的跨链方案,然后随时间推移筛选出一至两个表现不错的优质方案。
其次一个问题,是 LUNA 未来的价值捕获,很多人担心将 BTC 纳入 UST 背书机制中会削减 LUNA 的价值捕获能力。但实际上,LFG 相信在 BTC 的帮助下,新的背书机制能获得更多用户的青睐和信任,帮助 Terra 将 UST 蛋糕做得更大,这对 LUNA 来说并不是一件坏事。
而对于 BTC 来说,Terra 新的背书机制很好地发挥了其作为价值储藏资产的属性,并在这一基础上为其搭建了二层应用场景,使 BTC 在「什么也不做」的情况下为行业做出更多贡献,如 DeFi、NFT、DAO 等。
另外出于外交角度,LFG 还会考虑将各生态的 L1 原生 Token 也纳入 LUNA 的外汇储蓄中,以便提供更好的使用体验。用户将不再需要进行跨链转移操作,而是直接用 SOL、AVAX 等原生 Token 铸造 UST。
关于 Anchor Protocol
Anchor 收益是否会下调?
Terra 最近有一项针对 Anchor 收益的治理投票,旨在将 Anchor 收益更改为一个动态的指标。在这一新的计算机制下,协议每月都会评析自身收益储蓄的变动,并根据变动 Delta 设定具体收益指标。例如,若某月 Anchor 的收益储蓄缩减了 5%,则协议提供的收益也会相应减少 5%,即由 20% 降至 19%,反之亦然。
值得注意的是,即使 Anchor 采用动态收益指标,其每月的收益变动也是相对较小的,因为协议的收益储蓄不会在短期内发生剧烈变动。
Anchor 是否可持续?
有意思的是,在 DeFi Summer 初期,许多人认为 Anchor 20% 的收益太低,与其他动辄上百的收益机会相比没有吸引力,无法抢占市场份额。但 Anchor 团队看到的却是未来市场冷却、借贷需求下滑时 DeFi 所面临的问题。现在市场真的冷却后,同一批人又开始质疑 20% 的收益不可持续。
Anchor 团队对「可持续」的定义并非针对其「收益」,而是「效能」,即 Anchor 作为调节加密市场杠杆需求的工具,是否能够持续带来增长。但这并不意味着 LFG 不打算下调目前 20% 的收益,而是说这会是一个长期、稳健的过程。
另外为保持并增加借贷需求,Anchor 也会持续进行跨链发展。Anchor 目前已经拓展至 Avalanche 生态,并将马上支持 bATOM、bSOL 和 bMATIC,新的质押资产获得的收益机会将保持一致。 

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