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On April 10, the WSJ reported that just hours after U.S. President Trump unexpectedly announced a suspension of attacks on Iran last month, the White House warned staff against abusing their positions to place bets in prediction markets at opportune moments. According to insiders, the White House Management Office issued this warning on March 23. Earlier that day, Trump announced the decision to suspend airstrikes via Truth Social. About 15 minutes before the sudden policy shift, there was a surge of mysterious trading activity in the futures market, with Dow Jones market data showing that over $760 million worth of oil futures contracts changed hands in less than two minutes. Recently, three accounts on the Polymarket platform profited over $600,000 by accurately predicting the timing of this week's ceasefire in Iran. Critics of Trump, including many Democrats, immediately inferred that someone had profited from insider knowledge of the policy change. The White House confirmed the authenticity of the warning, with Trump's spokesperson Engel stating, 'The only special interest that guides President Trump's decision-making is the best interest of the American people.'

[White House Warns Staff Against Betting on Policy Insider Information]On April 10, the WSJ reported that just hours after U.S. President Trump unexpectedly announced a suspension of attacks on Iran last month, the White House warned staff against abusing their positions to place bets in prediction markets at opportune moments. According to insiders, the White House Management Office issued this warning on March 23. Earlier that day, Trump announced the decision to suspend airstrikes via Truth Social. About 15 minutes before the sudden policy shift, there was a surge of mysterious trading activity in the futures market, with Dow Jones market data showing that over $760 million worth of oil futures contracts changed hands in less than two minutes. Recently, three accounts on the Polymarket platform profited over $600,000 by accurately predicting the timing of this week's ceasefire in Iran. Critics of Trump, including many Democrats, immediately inferred that someone had profited from insider knowledge of the policy change. The White House confirmed the authenticity of the warning, with Trump's spokesperson Engel stating, 'The only special interest that guides President Trump's decision-making is the best interest of the American people.'

White House Warns Staff Against Betting on Policy Insider Information

On April 10, Reuters reported that three sources revealed that AI giant Anthropic is exploring the possibility of designing its own chips. The company and its competitors are struggling to address the shortage of AI chips, which are crucial for driving and developing more advanced AI systems. The sources indicated that Anthropic's plans are still in the early stages, and the company may ultimately choose to purchase AI chips rather than design them in-house. Anthropic has not yet finalized a specific design plan and has not assembled a dedicated team for the project. The company utilizes various chips, including Google's (GOOG.O) Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) and Amazon's (AMZN.O) chips, to develop and run its AI model, Claude.

[Sources: Anthropic Considering In-House AI Chip Development]On April 10, Reuters reported that three sources revealed that AI giant Anthropic is exploring the possibility of designing its own chips. The company and its competitors are struggling to address the shortage of AI chips, which are crucial for driving and developing more advanced AI systems. The sources indicated that Anthropic's plans are still in the early stages, and the company may ultimately choose to purchase AI chips rather than design them in-house. Anthropic has not yet finalized a specific design plan and has not assembled a dedicated team for the project. The company utilizes various chips, including Google's (GOOG.O) Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) and Amazon's (AMZN.O) chips, to develop and run its AI model, Claude.

Sources: Anthropic Considering In-House AI Chip Development

On April 10, according to a statement from the Kremlin on the evening of April 9, Russian President Putin announced that Russia will implement a ceasefire for Orthodox Easter from 4 PM Moscow time on April 11 to midnight on April 12 (from 9 PM Beijing time on April 11 to 5 AM on April 13), lasting 32 hours, and called on Ukraine to follow suit. Ukrainian President Zelensky promptly responded, stating, 'Ukraine has repeatedly declared that we are ready to take reciprocal measures. We have proposed a ceasefire during this year's Easter holiday and will act accordingly.' This represents a rare moment of public agreement on a ceasefire from both sides amid recent conflicts, but whether it can be realized and if there are any additional conditions remains to be seen.

[Russia and Ukraine Agree to 32-Hour Ceasefire for Orthodox Easter]On April 10, according to a statement from the Kremlin on the evening of April 9, Russian President Putin announced that Russia will implement a ceasefire for Orthodox Easter from 4 PM Moscow time on April 11 to midnight on April 12 (from 9 PM Beijing time on April 11 to 5 AM on April 13), lasting 32 hours, and called on Ukraine to follow suit. Ukrainian President Zelensky promptly responded, stating, 'Ukraine has repeatedly declared that we are ready to take reciprocal measures. We have proposed a ceasefire during this year's Easter holiday and will act accordingly.' This represents a rare moment of public agreement on a ceasefire from both sides amid recent conflicts, but whether it can be realized and if there are any additional conditions remains to be seen.

Russia and Ukraine Agree to 32-Hour Ceasefire for Orthodox Easter

On April 10, CBS reported that US officials revealed that representatives from Lebanon and Israel will hold diplomatic talks at the US State Department next week to formulate a ceasefire agreement. Insiders and Lebanese officials stated that the meeting aims to discuss how to initiate direct negotiations. Currently, Lebanon has become one of the most complex issues in the preliminary diplomatic activities between the US and Iran. Additionally, several diplomatic sources disclosed that Trump had previously been informed that the ceasefire agreement would apply to the Middle East, including Lebanon. Mediators also believe that the ceasefire agreement indeed covers Lebanon. Meanwhile, on the day of the ceasefire, a White House official stated that Israel also agreed to the terms of the agreement facilitated by Pakistan. However, after a phone call between Netanyahu and Trump, the US position changed. Two insiders noted that the shift in the US stance and the chaotic regime situation in Iran have made this diplomatic matter exceedingly complex. US Vice President Pence stated to reporters on Wednesday that there are 'reasonable misunderstandings' regarding the terms of the ceasefire agreement, but he attributed this to the Iranian side.

[US Media Reports: US Ambivalence on Lebanon Issue]On April 10, CBS reported that US officials revealed that representatives from Lebanon and Israel will hold diplomatic talks at the US State Department next week to formulate a ceasefire agreement. Insiders and Lebanese officials stated that the meeting aims to discuss how to initiate direct negotiations. Currently, Lebanon has become one of the most complex issues in the preliminary diplomatic activities between the US and Iran. Additionally, several diplomatic sources disclosed that Trump had previously been informed that the ceasefire agreement would apply to the Middle East, including Lebanon. Mediators also believe that the ceasefire agreement indeed covers Lebanon. Meanwhile, on the day of the ceasefire, a White House official stated that Israel also agreed to the terms of the agreement facilitated by Pakistan. However, after a phone call between Netanyahu and Trump, the US position changed. Two insiders noted that the shift in the US stance and the chaotic regime situation in Iran have made this diplomatic matter exceedingly complex. US Vice President Pence stated to reporters on Wednesday that there are 'reasonable misunderstandings' regarding the terms of the ceasefire agreement, but he attributed this to the Iranian side.

US Media Reports: US Ambivalence on Lebanon Issue

On April 10, U.S. President Trump stated in an interview that he has requested Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to conduct military operations in Lebanon with a 'lower profile' to align with U.S. diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving a ceasefire agreement with Iran. Trump mentioned that he had spoken with Netanyahu, who agreed to 'reduce the intensity of actions' and indicated that Israel is 'scaling back' its military operations in Lebanon. Earlier reports indicated that Trump had asked Israel to lessen its strikes on Lebanon and to engage in negotiations with the Lebanese government regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah.

[Trump Asks Netanyahu for 'Lower Profile' Military Actions in Lebanon]On April 10, U.S. President Trump stated in an interview that he has requested Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to conduct military operations in Lebanon with a 'lower profile' to align with U.S. diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving a ceasefire agreement with Iran. Trump mentioned that he had spoken with Netanyahu, who agreed to 'reduce the intensity of actions' and indicated that Israel is 'scaling back' its military operations in Lebanon. Earlier reports indicated that Trump had asked Israel to lessen its strikes on Lebanon and to engage in negotiations with the Lebanese government regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah.

Trump Asks Netanyahu for 'Lower Profile' Military Actions in Lebanon

On April 10, local time, Iranian state television read a statement from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on the evening of April 9, emphasizing that Iran does not seek war but will not abandon its rights. This latest statement from Mojtaba was made on the 40th anniversary of the assassination of his father, the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The statement reviewed Ali Khamenei's life and emphasized that Iran's victories in war were due to the unity of the government, military, and people. It stated that Iran will pursue war reparations and advance the management of the Strait of Hormuz to 'a new phase,' while considering the 'resistance front' as a unified whole. The statement also called on Iran's neighbors on the southern shore of the Persian Gulf (Gulf Arab states) to stand on 'the right side,' stating that Iran will extend goodwill to these countries, provided they distance themselves from 'arrogant hegemons.'

[Iran's Supreme Leader: Not Seeking War but Will Not Abandon Rights, Emphasizes New Phase of Management for the Strait of Hormuz]On April 10, local time, Iranian state television read a statement from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on the evening of April 9, emphasizing that Iran does not seek war but will not abandon its rights. This latest statement from Mojtaba was made on the 40th anniversary of the assassination of his father, the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The statement reviewed Ali Khamenei's life and emphasized that Iran's victories in war were due to the unity of the government, military, and people. It stated that Iran will pursue war reparations and advance the management of the Strait of Hormuz to 'a new phase,' while considering the 'resistance front' as a unified whole. The statement also called on Iran's neighbors on the southern shore of the Persian Gulf (Gulf Arab states) to stand on 'the right side,' stating that Iran will extend goodwill to these countries, provided they distance themselves from 'arrogant hegemons.'

Iran's Supreme Leader: Not Seeking War but Will Not Abandon Rights, Emphasizes New Phase of Management for the Strait of Hormuz

As of April 10, according to CME's 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is currently reported at 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is at 98.4%.

[Fed's Probability of Keeping Rates Unchanged in April Now at 98.4%]As of April 10, according to CME's 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is currently reported at 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is at 98.4%.

Fed's Probability of Keeping Rates Unchanged in April Now at 98.4%

On April 10, the stock price of stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group fell sharply on Thursday, driven by a downgrade from Wall Street analysts and news of a legal investigation related to recent crypto vulnerabilities. Circle's stock closed near its intraday low on Nasdaq, dropping 9.9% to $85.10. This decline continues a broader trend of weakening stock performance, with a cumulative drop of nearly 24% over the past month and about 43% over the past six months, reflecting ongoing volatility since its high-profile listing last year. However, the recent pullback may also partially reflect profit-taking, as Circle's stock had surged significantly between February and March, primarily driven by increased adoption of stablecoins. Despite this, some analysts continue to advise caution. On Thursday, CompassPoint downgraded Circle's rating from 'Neutral' to 'Sell,' setting a target price of $77, indicating about a 9% downside from current levels. Circle is also under pressure from regulatory uncertainties in the U.S., with progress on market structure legislation stalled and banking groups continuing to oppose interest-bearing stablecoins. However, Bernstein analysts believe these concerns are overstated, noting that Circle's core business remains unaffected and emphasizing the continued growth in USDC adoption and strong reserve income performance.

[Circle Stock Drops 10% Due to Analyst Downgrade and Drift Protocol Investigation]On April 10, the stock price of stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group fell sharply on Thursday, driven by a downgrade from Wall Street analysts and news of a legal investigation related to recent crypto vulnerabilities. Circle's stock closed near its intraday low on Nasdaq, dropping 9.9% to $85.10. This decline continues a broader trend of weakening stock performance, with a cumulative drop of nearly 24% over the past month and about 43% over the past six months, reflecting ongoing volatility since its high-profile listing last year. However, the recent pullback may also partially reflect profit-taking, as Circle's stock had surged significantly between February and March, primarily driven by increased adoption of stablecoins. Despite this, some analysts continue to advise caution. On Thursday, CompassPoint downgraded Circle's rating from 'Neutral' to 'Sell,' setting a target price of $77, indicating about a 9% downside from current levels. Circle is also under pressure from regulatory uncertainties in the U.S., with progress on market structure legislation stalled and banking groups continuing to oppose interest-bearing stablecoins. However, Bernstein analysts believe these concerns are overstated, noting that Circle's core business remains unaffected and emphasizing the continued growth in USDC adoption and strong reserve income performance.

Circle Stock Drops 10% Due to Analyst Downgrade and Drift Protocol Investigation

On April 10, U.S. President Trump warned Iran not to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, stating that such actions would "violate agreements" and demanded that Iran "immediately cease". Despite a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, passage through the strait remains significantly restricted. The volume of ship traffic is far below normal levels, with many vessels still stranded in the Persian Gulf, and the recovery of energy transportation is not progressing as expected. Trump's remarks indicate that the U.S. opposes Iran using its control over the strait to gain economic benefits, and he has previously suggested that the U.S. could collect passage fees. Meanwhile, Iran has signaled that it will push for a "new phase" in managing the strait and is reportedly developing a fee mechanism. In the market context, the Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for about 20% of global oil and LNG transportation, and the dispute over its control is becoming one of the core variables affecting the stability of the ceasefire. Analysts point out that disagreements over passage rights, fee arrangements, and security mechanisms may become focal points in the upcoming direct negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan. If these disputes continue to escalate, the ceasefire agreement faces a risk of further collapse.

[Trump Warns Iran Against Charging Fees for Strait of Hormuz, Ceasefire Agreement Faces New Challenges]On April 10, U.S. President Trump warned Iran not to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, stating that such actions would "violate agreements" and demanded that Iran "immediately cease". Despite a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, passage through the strait remains significantly restricted. The volume of ship traffic is far below normal levels, with many vessels still stranded in the Persian Gulf, and the recovery of energy transportation is not progressing as expected. Trump's remarks indicate that the U.S. opposes Iran using its control over the strait to gain economic benefits, and he has previously suggested that the U.S. could collect passage fees. Meanwhile, Iran has signaled that it will push for a "new phase" in managing the strait and is reportedly developing a fee mechanism. In the market context, the Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for about 20% of global oil and LNG transportation, and the dispute over its control is becoming one of the core variables affecting the stability of the ceasefire. Analysts point out that disagreements over passage rights, fee arrangements, and security mechanisms may become focal points in the upcoming direct negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan. If these disputes continue to escalate, the ceasefire agreement faces a risk of further collapse.

Trump Warns Iran Against Charging Fees for Strait of Hormuz, Ceasefire Agreement Faces New Challenges

Francine McKenna is a lecturer in financial accounting at The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She currently produces a newsletter, The Dig, about public and pre-IPO companies.
The first red flag anyone receiving these reports should have seen is that there were two different audit firms producing them. The choice of firms itself is questionable. These are two small outfits, not even on the next tier to the Big Four global audit firms – Deloitte, Ernst &Young, KPMG and PricewaterhouseCoopers. Armanino and Prager Metis do audit a few public companies but none of the size or complexity of FTX. Because the firms are so small, the audit regulator, the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), inspects them only once every three years.
The second red flag for any reader of the 2021 audit reports is that neither the Armanino nor the Prager Metis audit reports for 2021 provides an opinion on the FTX US or FTX Trading internal controls over accounting and financial reporting.
The third red flag is, despite a combination of enormous siphoning off of firm assets by related parties and favorable tax planning, neither FTX Trading nor FTX US paid any federal income taxes, although they both appeared to be profitable. 
The biggest red flag for preparers and readers of the audited financial statements should have been the number of complex, roundtrip and utterly confounding related-party transactions documented in just these two years.

Detail

【Penn Wharton accountant lists multiple red flags for FTX before collapse】Francine McKenna is a lecturer in financial accounting at The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She currently produces a newsletter, The Dig, about public and pre-IPO companies.
The first red flag anyone receiving these reports should have seen is that there were two different audit firms producing them. The choice of firms itself is questionable. These are two small outfits, not even on the next tier to the Big Four global audit firms – Deloitte, Ernst &Young, KPMG and PricewaterhouseCoopers. Armanino and Prager Metis do audit a few public companies but none of the size or complexity of FTX. Because the firms are so small, the audit regulator, the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), inspects them only once every three years.
The second red flag for any reader of the 2021 audit reports is that neither the Armanino nor the Prager Metis audit reports for 2021 provides an opinion on the FTX US or FTX Trading internal controls over accounting and financial reporting.
The third red flag is, despite a combination of enormous siphoning off of firm assets by related parties and favorable tax planning, neither FTX Trading nor FTX US paid any federal income taxes, although they both appeared to be profitable. 
The biggest red flag for preparers and readers of the audited financial statements should have been the number of complex, roundtrip and utterly confounding related-party transactions documented in just these two years.

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Penn Wharton accountant lists multiple red flags for FTX before collapse

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