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On June 17, during the G7 summit in France, U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations for the U.S.-Iran agreement have entered the second phase, which is expected to progress more smoothly. Despite Trump's repeated emphasis that the U.S. will not provide financial support to Iran, it has been revealed that Iran will receive several economic incentives to reach the preliminary memorandum of understanding and the final agreement. On that day, Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran have successfully signed the memorandum of understanding online, and the negotiations have entered the second phase, which he described as 'should be easier than the first phase.' Trump also mentioned that a press conference will be held to officially announce the text of the memorandum and it will be submitted to the U.S. Congress for review. He emphasized that 'the text clearly states that Iran will not have nuclear weapons,' which is a core bottom line; otherwise, it will face devastating strikes from the U.S., and the U.S. will not provide any financial support to Iran.

[Trump: Second Phase of US-Iran Agreement Negotiations 'Easier']On June 17, during the G7 summit in France, U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations for the U.S.-Iran agreement have entered the second phase, which is expected to progress more smoothly. Despite Trump's repeated emphasis that the U.S. will not provide financial support to Iran, it has been revealed that Iran will receive several economic incentives to reach the preliminary memorandum of understanding and the final agreement. On that day, Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran have successfully signed the memorandum of understanding online, and the negotiations have entered the second phase, which he described as 'should be easier than the first phase.' Trump also mentioned that a press conference will be held to officially announce the text of the memorandum and it will be submitted to the U.S. Congress for review. He emphasized that 'the text clearly states that Iran will not have nuclear weapons,' which is a core bottom line; otherwise, it will face devastating strikes from the U.S., and the U.S. will not provide any financial support to Iran.

Trump: Second Phase of US-Iran Agreement Negotiations 'Easier'

On June 17, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian stated on the 16th that the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States will be officially signed and take effect on the 19th in Switzerland. Subsequently, the two countries will immediately initiate a new round of negotiations on the same day, aiming to reach a final agreement.

[Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran-U.S. Memorandum of Understanding to be Signed in Switzerland]On June 17, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian stated on the 16th that the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States will be officially signed and take effect on the 19th in Switzerland. Subsequently, the two countries will immediately initiate a new round of negotiations on the same day, aiming to reach a final agreement.

Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran-U.S. Memorandum of Understanding to be Signed in Switzerland

On June 17, SpaceX saw its stock rise for the third consecutive trading day, surpassing Amazon to become the fifth largest company by market capitalization globally. The stock closed up 4.8%, pushing its market value to $2.65 trillion, approximately $8 billion higher than Amazon. At one point during trading, the valuation of Elon Musk's rocket and AI company exceeded that of Microsoft, briefly making it the fourth largest company in the world. Part of the surge can be attributed to the limited number of SpaceX shares available for trading, with only about 4.2% of the total shares being tradable on the first day of its IPO. This may lead to more pronounced price fluctuations and significant changes in market capitalization. SpaceX's stock price has increased by 49% from its IPO issuance price of $135 per share, indicating strong investor demand and alleviating concerns about the record size of this IPO being too large for the market to absorb.

[SpaceX Soars 49% Post-IPO, Surpassing Amazon to Become the Fifth Largest Company Globally]On June 17, SpaceX saw its stock rise for the third consecutive trading day, surpassing Amazon to become the fifth largest company by market capitalization globally. The stock closed up 4.8%, pushing its market value to $2.65 trillion, approximately $8 billion higher than Amazon. At one point during trading, the valuation of Elon Musk's rocket and AI company exceeded that of Microsoft, briefly making it the fourth largest company in the world. Part of the surge can be attributed to the limited number of SpaceX shares available for trading, with only about 4.2% of the total shares being tradable on the first day of its IPO. This may lead to more pronounced price fluctuations and significant changes in market capitalization. SpaceX's stock price has increased by 49% from its IPO issuance price of $135 per share, indicating strong investor demand and alleviating concerns about the record size of this IPO being too large for the market to absorb.

SpaceX Soars 49% Post-IPO, Surpassing Amazon to Become the Fifth Largest Company Globally

On June 17, options traders' views on the Federal Reserve's recent rate path have become increasingly divergent, with various bets ranging from expectations of rate cuts in the coming months to differing degrees of rate hikes. Swap market pricing indicates that it is almost certain the Fed will maintain rates at its meeting on Wednesday, with all eyes turning to Chair Waller's first press conference for clues about future policy. Although the U.S. and Iran are set to formally sign a temporary peace agreement, leading to a drop in oil prices to a three-month low and providing some relief to inflationary pressures, future policy remains uncertain.

[Divergence Among U.S. Treasury Options Traders on Fed Rate Path, Focus on Waller's Press Conference Tone]On June 17, options traders' views on the Federal Reserve's recent rate path have become increasingly divergent, with various bets ranging from expectations of rate cuts in the coming months to differing degrees of rate hikes. Swap market pricing indicates that it is almost certain the Fed will maintain rates at its meeting on Wednesday, with all eyes turning to Chair Waller's first press conference for clues about future policy. Although the U.S. and Iran are set to formally sign a temporary peace agreement, leading to a drop in oil prices to a three-month low and providing some relief to inflationary pressures, future policy remains uncertain.

Divergence Among U.S. Treasury Options Traders on Fed Rate Path, Focus on Waller's Press Conference Tone

On June 17, CNBC reported that the Federal Reserve will release its latest dot plot on Wednesday, showing officials' expectations for interest rate trends. However, most Wall Street Fed watchers expect that new Fed Chair Waller may not participate, either because he feels unprepared or simply because he dislikes the dot plot. Waller has previously expressed opposition to the dot plot and other forward guidance methods, arguing that these approaches limit the Fed's decision-making capabilities. If Waller refuses to provide dot plot expectations, it would contradict nearly 14 years of practice since the financial crisis and could alienate him from other Fed officials who support this communication method. However, for Waller, who has committed to fundamentally reforming the institution's operations, this may be an effective first step. "In my view, he likely does not want to submit interest rate forecasts," said former Fed monetary policy chief and current Yale professor Bill English. "There may be others on the committee who also dislike the dot plot, and they might be willing to do the same." (The image shows the dot plot released by the Fed in March this year.)

[Waller May Refuse to Provide Fed Dot Plot Expectations, Breaking 14-Year Tradition]On June 17, CNBC reported that the Federal Reserve will release its latest dot plot on Wednesday, showing officials' expectations for interest rate trends. However, most Wall Street Fed watchers expect that new Fed Chair Waller may not participate, either because he feels unprepared or simply because he dislikes the dot plot. Waller has previously expressed opposition to the dot plot and other forward guidance methods, arguing that these approaches limit the Fed's decision-making capabilities. If Waller refuses to provide dot plot expectations, it would contradict nearly 14 years of practice since the financial crisis and could alienate him from other Fed officials who support this communication method. However, for Waller, who has committed to fundamentally reforming the institution's operations, this may be an effective first step. "In my view, he likely does not want to submit interest rate forecasts," said former Fed monetary policy chief and current Yale professor Bill English. "There may be others on the committee who also dislike the dot plot, and they might be willing to do the same." (The image shows the dot plot released by the Fed in March this year.)

Waller May Refuse to Provide Fed Dot Plot Expectations, Breaking 14-Year Tradition

On June 17, according to CME's 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.5%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 0.5%. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged until July is 92%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point increase at 7.9%, and a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 0%.

[99.5% Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged This Week]On June 17, according to CME's 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.5%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 0.5%. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged until July is 92%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point increase at 7.9%, and a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 0%.

99.5% Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged This Week

The once-dominant Memecoin issuance platform on Solana, Pump.fun, has seen a continuous deterioration in activity, with a significant decline in token graduation rates, platform revenue, and Solana network fees in recent months. Data shows that the seven-day average token graduation rate for Pump.fun dropped to 0.26% last week, marking an 80% decrease over the past three months. Meanwhile, the platform's average revenue from June to date is approximately $800,000, significantly lower than the average daily revenue of about $4.8 million six months ago. In June, Pump.fun's revenue fell by 25% month-over-month, and the token graduation rate decreased by 53% in the same period. This disparity indicates that the platform may still be maintaining some dollar revenue through auxiliary income from PumpSwap AMM trading fees and sponsorship for token listings, but its core function—pushing newly issued tokens to higher market cap stages—has significantly weakened. The decline of Pump.fun is also reflected in the price of the PUMP token, which has dropped about 40% over the past six months. At the same time, trader interest is shifting from Memecoin issuance on the Solana chain to other trading scenarios such as perpetual contracts, further driving down Solana network fees.

[Pump.fun Activity Declines by 80% Over Three Months]The once-dominant Memecoin issuance platform on Solana, Pump.fun, has seen a continuous deterioration in activity, with a significant decline in token graduation rates, platform revenue, and Solana network fees in recent months. Data shows that the seven-day average token graduation rate for Pump.fun dropped to 0.26% last week, marking an 80% decrease over the past three months. Meanwhile, the platform's average revenue from June to date is approximately $800,000, significantly lower than the average daily revenue of about $4.8 million six months ago. In June, Pump.fun's revenue fell by 25% month-over-month, and the token graduation rate decreased by 53% in the same period. This disparity indicates that the platform may still be maintaining some dollar revenue through auxiliary income from PumpSwap AMM trading fees and sponsorship for token listings, but its core function—pushing newly issued tokens to higher market cap stages—has significantly weakened. The decline of Pump.fun is also reflected in the price of the PUMP token, which has dropped about 40% over the past six months. At the same time, trader interest is shifting from Memecoin issuance on the Solana chain to other trading scenarios such as perpetual contracts, further driving down Solana network fees.

Pump.fun Activity Declines by 80% Over Three Months

On June 17, foreign media reported on the 16th that a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran includes a $300 billion private fund aimed at stimulating investment in Iran, with over half of the amount already secured in funding commitments. According to sources, the fund is designed to 'provide economic incentives for both parties to facilitate the final agreement' and is a 'private investment tool' that does not include any government funds or grants. Companies based in the United States, Gulf countries, as well as those from Asia, South America, and Africa have already committed to invest, covering sectors such as energy, logistics, manufacturing, and transportation. (Xinhua News Agency)

[Foreign Media: Over Half of $300 Billion Fund in US-Iran Agreement Secured Funding Commitments]On June 17, foreign media reported on the 16th that a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran includes a $300 billion private fund aimed at stimulating investment in Iran, with over half of the amount already secured in funding commitments. According to sources, the fund is designed to 'provide economic incentives for both parties to facilitate the final agreement' and is a 'private investment tool' that does not include any government funds or grants. Companies based in the United States, Gulf countries, as well as those from Asia, South America, and Africa have already committed to invest, covering sectors such as energy, logistics, manufacturing, and transportation. (Xinhua News Agency)

Foreign Media: Over Half of $300 Billion Fund in US-Iran Agreement Secured Funding Commitments

On June 17, Iranian sources reported on the 16th that Iran will not allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) personnel to enter its nuclear facilities for inspections during negotiations with the United States.

[Iran Temporarily Denies IAEA Access to Nuclear Facilities]On June 17, Iranian sources reported on the 16th that Iran will not allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) personnel to enter its nuclear facilities for inspections during negotiations with the United States.

Iran Temporarily Denies IAEA Access to Nuclear Facilities

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Article

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Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in June at 98.5%

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