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06/17 01:44

Polymarket’s $354M Iran Dispute Exposes Prediction

#World Cup Predictions: 100,000 USDT Daily #BTC Prophet: 20-Day 380 Million HTX Challenge #1$ Margin Trade Polymarket’s $354M Iran Dispute Exposes Prediction Markets’ Settlement Problem Financial markets largely moved on after the United States and Iran announced an agreement over the weekend. On Polymarket, traders are still debating whether the event happened at all. The prediction market platform has processed more than $345 million in volume on contracts tied to a US-Iran peace deal. While both countries announced an agreement, the market remains unresolved because users disagree on whether the developments satisfy the contract’s requirement for a “permanent peace deal.” Disputed Polymarket’s Iran peace-deal bets. Source: Polymarket When Does a Peace Deal Count? The dispute turns on Polymarket’s definition of a “permanent peace deal.” According to the contract rules, a qualifying agreement must explicitly indicate that military hostilities between the two countries have ended or will permanently cease. Agreements that are temporary, or that do not clearly establish a lasting end to hostilities, do not qualify. That wording has left traders split. Supporters of a “yes” resolution point to public statements describing the agreement as a permanent end to military operations. Opponents argue that negotiations are still ongoing, no final document has been signed, and parts of the arrangement remain temporary, including the reported 60-day reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are now arguing over contract language and official paperwork, not the underlying event itself.

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