Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010 )
June 10th, the 103rd day since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, U.S.-Iran negotiations remain difficult with no conclusion in sight.
Today, following Israel's strike against Iran, according to U.S. officials, the U.S. has also launched its third round of strikes against Iran, which concluded swiftly. Behind this century-long conflict, the key to reconciliation lies not only in deeper issues of Iranian nuclear weapons and uranium enrichment materials, but also in a major current sticking point: the frozen Iranian assets held by the U.S., totaling $24 billion, including approximately $1 billion in cryptocurrency assets.
Where do these assets come from? What cryptocurrency assets are included? Can the U.S. and Iran reach an agreement on this matter? These are the main topics of discussion in this article.
Trump's Baffling 'Hot and Cold' Approach: Toughness and Compromise Coexist
Whether the U.S.-Iran conflict can end through negotiations naturally hinges on key figure U.S. President Trump. However, Trump, a businessman by background, is particularly shrewd and, compared to politician-type presidents, more focused on practical benefits. Therefore, his public image is also extremely contradictory: on one hand, his public statements vary between tough and soft; on the other hand, he is accustomed to sowing confusion, using talks of negotiation, reconciliation, and "imminent agreement" as excuses to mislead Iran and even global news media, thereby achieving goals such as "manipulating capital markets" and other undisclosed objectives.
According to CNN reports, since the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28th, Trump has made statements similar to "a U.S.-Iran agreement is about to be reached" over 30 times on social media, in public appearances, and in telephone interviews with media journalists (Odaily Planet Daily Note: some sources say at least 37 times).
In light of this, Iran has not harbored illusions of a "one-step" negotiation but has envisioned it as a four-stage plan.
On June 4th, according to Iranian media Fars News, Iran outlined a four-stage plan for reaching an agreement with the United States:
- The first stage focuses on a comprehensive cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Iran, the U.S., and the Axis of Resistance;
- The core of the second stage is implementing measures on four key issues, including: the Strait of Hormuz and related mechanisms, lifting the blockade, canceling oil restrictions and sanctions, and unfreezing part of Iran's assets;
- The third stage will initiate broader negotiations on sanctions and nuclear issues after objective and verifiable measures are implemented;
- The fourth stage involves establishing a supervisory committee to oversee the implementation of the agreement and track compliance by all parties.
Previously, the U.S. and Iran had already ceased hostilities, but efforts in the first stage were temporarily broken due to Israel's renewed attacks on Iran and the turbulent situation in Lebanon; the second stage is now the main sticking point in the U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Specific Amount of Frozen Iranian Assets: Iran Claims $24 Billion, U.S. Confiscated $1 Billion in Crypto Assets
Previously, according to CNN, a U.S. official familiar with the negotiations stated that one of the remaining key sticking points in the U.S.-Iran talks is the issue of economic compensation, as Trump is eager to reach a deal perceived as superior to the one reached during the Obama administration.
The official stated that Iran has conveyed to mediators that once both sides agree on a preliminary memorandum of understanding, they want to receive some form of economic compensation as quickly as possible, rather than postponing it to a future date. However, officials in the Trump administration worry that unfreezing funds at such an early stage could alleviate the economic damage inflicted on Iran—this might remove, or at least weaken, a key leverage Washington holds over Tehran. This leverage would be crucial for the U.S. entering the second stage of negotiations to discuss specific details of Iran's nuclear program. Trump has made it clear to his team that he wants any agreement to appear much tougher than the 2015 deal and to avoid any action that could be interpreted as "delivering large amounts of cash"—a phrase Trump used to criticize Obama's decision to provide economic compensation to Iran.
On June 6th, media reports indicated that a potential U.S.-Iran agreement depends on whether the U.S. agrees to release $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets. This figure was later confirmed by Iranian officials.
That same day, according to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, stated that at least 50% of Iran's frozen financial assets must be unfrozen immediately upon signing any memorandum of understanding with the United States. He added that the remaining funds should be "unfrozen within a limited period of one to two months after the agreement is signed." Gharibabadi stated that these assets belong to Iran and were "illegally frozen" by the U.S., and unfreezing them is a core requirement of any potential understanding. He said the remaining details of the fund access mechanism, including technical and financial arrangements, would be negotiated further during the 60-day implementation period following the signing of the memorandum.
However, this demand was promptly met with strong rejection from Trump, who stated he would not unfreeze Iranian assets or lift any sanctions in advance as part of any agreement.
In late May, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in an interview with Fox News that the U.S. had seized approximately $1 billion in Iranian cryptocurrency assets. Bessent said the action was part of sanctions against the Iranian regime and its proxy networks, and the related funds had been frozen. This includes about $344 million worth of USDT stablecoins frozen by stablecoin issuer Tether in April this year, as well as other cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH.
He stated that before the U.S. Treasury intervened, the Iranian regime was stealing $400 to $500 million monthly, distributing this money to dozens of senior officials. "We are working with allies across Europe to seize various villas, houses, and properties," Bessent explained. "And this money was actually stolen from the Iranian people." Additionally, according to Bitcoin News analysis, the figure Bessent initially disclosed in late April was "close to $500 million," while the latest figure as of May 29th had surpassed the $1 billion mark, indicating that the enforcement intensity of the operation, codenamed "Operation Economic Fury," continues to increase.
It is worth noting that, according to Wikipedia, the U.S. previously even seized a Manhattan skyscraper belonging to the Iranian government (valued at over $1 billion) and its accumulated rent (approximately $50 million).
Furthermore, according to the latest media reports, the U.S. is considering using frozen Iranian assets to fund reconstruction and repair work in Gulf countries affected by the "U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict." According to informed sources, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has directed relevant teams to assess the damage caused by Iran to Gulf allies. Additionally, the U.S. is also considering using frozen Iranian assets to compensate for potential future losses.
Based on the above information, although Trump stated last night that he is "very close to reaching a very good, strong, and powerful agreement," it remains difficult for the U.S., Israel, and Iran to achieve reconciliation before determining compensation and how to handle the frozen assets.
As for the impact on cryptocurrency assets, it is mainly focused on the macro-situation's influence on the overall cryptocurrency market, with minimal direct selling pressure on specific coins like BTC and ETH.
For the foreseeable future, although both sides wish to end this conflict quickly, constrained by disputes of interest and the international situation, "fighting while talking, talking while fighting" may remain the norm for the U.S., Iran, and perhaps Israel.
