Analysts at Bernstein have published an updated forecast for Bitcoin and Strategy shares, reports The Block. Under their base case scenario, they expect the leading cryptocurrency to return to $125,000 by the end of 2026, reach a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027, and approach $300,000 at the peak of the next cycle in 2029.
"Trading Depreciation" as a New Macro Driver
Bernstein's key thesis is a shift in the macroeconomic regime. According to the analysts, the 40-year era of declining interest rates has come to an end. Governments are facing rising debt servicing costs against the backdrop of the U.S. national debt of $40 trillion.
"Rising yields create a self-reinforcing cycle of higher interest payments, larger deficits, and increased borrowing needs," the analysts noted.
Bernstein expects monetary regulators to ultimately choose currency depreciation over fiscal stress, which would increase demand for scarce assets—particularly Bitcoin.
The analysts also noted that approximately 59% of Bitcoin's supply has not moved in the past 12 months. More active participation via spot ETFs and corporate treasury purchases have helped limit the drawdown to 50% from the October 2025 peak—compared to declines of 75-90% in previous cycles.
Bullish Scenarios and Forecast for Strategy
In case institutional capital begins to enter Bitcoin more aggressively amid currency depreciation, Bernstein allows for a price of $200,000 by mid-2027 and a potential peak of $500,000 in 2029. The firm's long-term target is $1 million by the end of 2033.
Regarding Strategy, the analysts maintained their "outperform" rating but lowered the target share price from $450 to $350 due to the updated Bitcoin cycle forecast and accelerated issuance of new shares.
Currently, Strategy holds 840,447 BTC—approximately 4% of the total supply. Bernstein noted that the company's strengthened balance sheet provides nearly four years of cash coverage for interest and preferred dividend payments. Further strengthening of Bitcoin and a recovery of STRC shares to $100 could prompt the company to "start actively buying Bitcoin again," the analysts believe.
Earlier, Bernstein stated that the failure of the CLARITY Act could accelerate the development of crypto regulation by the SEC and CFTC.
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