The Mag7 Myth Shatters: 9 Consecutive Drops, Amazon Follows Microsoft into Bear Market

marsbit2026-02-14 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-02-14 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Amazon's stock has experienced a nine-day losing streak, its longest in nearly two decades, officially entering a bear market after falling more than 23% from its recent high. It becomes the second member of the "Magnificent Seven" (Mag7) to do so, following Microsoft, which entered a bear market in late January and is down 27.8%. Meta is also nearing bear market territory, down 19.6% from its peak, as investor confidence is shaken by aggressive AI spending plans. The four major cloud hyperscalers—Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet—are projected to spend a combined $650 billion on capital expenditures in AI by 2026, with Amazon leading at $200 billion. This massive spending is raising significant concerns among investors about returns on investment and its impact on free cash flow. For Amazon, this level of expenditure could push its free cash flow into negative territory this year, potentially forcing it to raise more capital from debt markets. Analysts note a rotation within the Mag7, with investors moving away from companies like Microsoft and Nvidia to favor others like Alphabet, whose vertically integrated tech infrastructure helps alleviate some spending concerns. The next key catalyst for AI-related stocks is expected to be Nvidia's earnings report on February 25th, which will indicate whether the AI boom is sustaining.

Author: Zhao Ying, Bao Yilong, Wall Street Insights

Amazon's stock has fallen for nine consecutive days, marking its longest losing streak in nearly 20 years.

After entering a technical bear market on Thursday, becoming the second Mag7 company to fall into a bear market, Amazon's stock continued to decline on Friday.

Investors are strongly resisting the aggressive AI spending plans of tech giants, leading to significant declines in these star stocks.

On Friday, Amazon's stock closed at $198.79, down more than 23% from its recent high, officially crossing the bear market threshold the previous day, Thursday.

Among the four major hyperscale cloud service providers, Amazon has the highest planned capital expenditure for 2026, reaching $200 billion.

Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet are expected to collectively spend $650 billion on capital expenditures in the AI field by 2026.

Meta could be the next Mag7 member to fall into a bear market. As of Friday's close, it was down 19.6% from last year's high, just 0.4% away from the bear market threshold of a 20% decline. Although Meta's Q4 revenue and profits exceeded Wall Street expectations, increased AI spending and margin pressures have dampened investor confidence.

Microsoft was the first Mag7 member to enter a bear market. The company's stock fell into a bear market on January 29, after the Azure cloud business growth reported the previous day fell short of investor expectations. As of Friday's close, Microsoft's stock was down 27.8% from its recent high.

(Chart of Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta's performance over the past year)

Investors Rotate Within Mag7, Free Cash Flow Pressure Highlights

Mike Treacy, Vice President of Risk at Apex Fintech Solutions, stated that the recent sell-off highlights the growing divergence among Mag7 members.

Since last fall, investors have shifted away from OpenAI-related deals involving Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Oracle, favoring the Alphabet and Broadcom ecosystems instead.

Treacy pointed out that Alphabet's vertically integrated technology stack has somewhat offset concerns about excessive spending, shielding the stock from the worst of the tech sell-off. Alphabet's stock closed Thursday down 9.2% from its recent high.

Treacy noted that Google's self-sufficiency should command a premium relative to other companies that may be adversely affected by a single link in the industry chain.

Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta's stocks have been hit harder because investors lack confidence that these companies' AI spending will yield sufficient returns on investment.

For Amazon, the increased level of expenditure could lead to negative free cash flow this year, meaning the company may need to start raising more funds in the debt market.

Treacy believes that the next major catalyst for AI trades will be NVIDIA's earnings report on February 25. This report will show whether the AI boom is cooling down or if NVIDIA has successfully captured the tens of billions of dollars its largest clients are investing into the field.

Related reading: Trading Moment: AI Panic Escalates Ahead of CPI, Bitcoin Grinds Bottom, May Struggle to Repeat "Spring Festival Rally"

İlgili Sorular

QWhat is the main reason for the recent decline in Mag7 stocks, particularly Amazon and Microsoft?

AInvestors are strongly resisting the aggressive AI spending plans of tech giants, leading to significant sell-offs in these star stocks.

QWhich Mag7 company was the first to enter a bear market, and when did it happen?

AMicrosoft was the first Mag7 member to enter a bear market, with its stock falling into bear territory on January 29.

QHow much is Amazon's planned capital expenditure for 2026, and what is the total AI-related capital expenditure expected from the four major cloud service providers?

AAmazon plans a capital expenditure of $200 billion for 2026. The four major cloud service providers (Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet) are expected to spend a total of $650 billion in AI-related capital expenditures by 2026.

QWhich Mag7 company is at risk of being the next to fall into a bear market, and how close is it to the 20% decline threshold?

AMeta is at risk of being the next Mag7 member to fall into a bear market. As of Friday's close, it was down 19.6% from last year's high, just 0.4% away from the bear market threshold of a 20% decline.

QWhat potential financial pressure does Amazon face due to its increased capital expenditure in AI?

AThe increase in capital expenditure levels could lead Amazon's free cash flow to turn negative this year, meaning the company may need to raise more capital by entering the debt market.

İlgili Okumalar

In Conversation with Ray Dalio: We Are Currently in an AI Bubble, with 1% of My Portfolio in Bitcoin

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns in an interview that the current AI boom shows classic bubble characteristics, which could lead to significant economic downturns as seen in past cycles like 1929 or 2000. He explains that speculative enthusiasm, fueled by debt and overvaluation, often precedes a crash when rising rates or taxation force asset sales, causing widespread losses and recession. Dalio also outlines his "Big Cycle" theory, describing an approximate 80-year pattern where widening wealth gaps, massive government deficits, and shifting geopolitical power (like China's rise) create internal conflict and global instability. He emphasizes that we are in a late-cycle, transitional phase where traditional powers like the US and UK face decline. For personal wealth protection, Dalio advises diversification beyond cash into assets like stocks, bonds, real estate, and particularly gold, which he prefers over Bitcoin. While he holds about 1% of his portfolio in Bitcoin as a non-printable hard asset, he views gold as more secure from technological or governmental threats. Regarding AI's impact, Dalio believes it will disproportionately benefit capital owners, worsening inequality by replacing both physical and cognitive labor. He suggests that human intuition and emotional intelligence, combined with AI, will be key for future workers. On taxation, Dalio argues that wealth taxes are impractical and risk triggering asset sell-offs, reducing productive investment. He points to the UK as a cautionary example of debt, low productivity, and political strife. Geopolitically, Dalio foresees a more regionalized world, with the US showing weakness in prolonged conflicts like with Iran, akin to past imperial declines. The ideal outcome, he suggests, is coexisting powerful blocs (e.g., Americas, China-Asia Pacific) without major war.

marsbit2 saat önce

In Conversation with Ray Dalio: We Are Currently in an AI Bubble, with 1% of My Portfolio in Bitcoin

marsbit2 saat önce

Daily 7.2 Trillion KRW: Foreign Capital's Record Net Buying on Friday! Wall Street Says Headwinds for Korean Stock Fund Flows Have Subsided

South Korean stock market sees a dramatic shift in fund flows. On July 31, foreign investors made a record net purchase of approximately KRW 7.2 trillion in KOSPI stocks, marking a fundamental reversal from the persistent large-scale net outflows seen in previous months. This contributed to a significant narrowing of foreign net selling in July to KRW 9.8 trillion, down sharply from KRW 48.4 trillion in June and KRW 44.5 trillion in May. Simultaneously, domestic institutional pressure eased. South Korean pension funds and asset managers turned to a net buying position in July, purchasing KRW 1.0 trillion worth of KOSPI shares, contrasting with net sales in May and June. Market volatility is expected to be dampened by new financial regulations. Effective July 31, the Financial Services Commission tightened access for retail investors to single-stock leveraged ETFs by raising the minimum cash deposit requirement. Trading volumes for these products subsequently dropped to about 50% of their monthly average. Citigroup Research maintains its year-end KOSPI target of 10,000 points. The firm cites several supportive factors: the substantial easing of headwinds from capital outflows, a robust fundamental outlook for the semiconductor sector, historically low market valuations, strong economic fundamentals, and the potential for policy support from financial authorities if needed.

marsbit2 saat önce

Daily 7.2 Trillion KRW: Foreign Capital's Record Net Buying on Friday! Wall Street Says Headwinds for Korean Stock Fund Flows Have Subsided

marsbit2 saat önce

Breaking! OpenAI's Next-Gen AI Solves 10 Fields Medal-Level Problems

OpenAI's next-generation AI model Astra achieves breakthroughs in 10 long-standing mathematical conjectures. The results, including constructing the first known infinite, finitely presented non-sofic group—resolving a major question since 1999—and advancing the high-dimensional sphere packing problem beyond a 46-year-old barrier, are detailed in a 249-page paper. Key proofs have been formally verified using Lean 4. The AI also refuted a rigidity conjecture by Fields Medalist Alain Connes. According to OpenAI, generating these proofs cost under $2,000. Experts describe the findings as potentially Fields Medal-worthy and a landmark moment for both mathematics and AI, showcasing the model's ability to produce profound, human-like reasoning across diverse fields like group theory, geometry, and operator algebras.

marsbit4 saat önce

Breaking! OpenAI's Next-Gen AI Solves 10 Fields Medal-Level Problems

marsbit4 saat önce

How to Make Yourself Irreplaceable by AI Forever

This article argues that the primary threat from AI is not job replacement, but remaining trapped in "wage slavery"—financial dependence on employers. The path to becoming irreplaceable is not resisting AI, but becoming an "unemployable" individual who builds their own meaningful enterprise. The author identifies five key elements for this: Agency (acting without permission), Taste (judging what's worthwhile), Persuasion, Persistence, and Iteration. The solution is to stop being a "pawn" in someone else's game. To start, you must fundamentally change your identity and environment, then engage in rapid, real-world trial and error. While both coding and creating media (content) are powerful, content is more crucial. AI can generate assets, but true value lies in subjective, human-driven content that builds trust and narrative. The actionable advice is to carve out 15 minutes to answer foundational questions: 1) Uncover your "raw material"—what you know deeply or solve effortlessly. 2) Define your contrarian perspective—what common beliefs you think are wrong. The intersection of these answers is your direction. Finally, you must launch by publishing your first core idea immediately, using the feedback to iterate and develop the skills needed for a self-directed life and career.

marsbit4 saat önce

How to Make Yourself Irreplaceable by AI Forever

marsbit4 saat önce

Thanks to Dice Rolls, Bitcoin Keys Are Stored Offline, But Not Everyone Will Do It

The article discusses using dice rolls to generate secure Bitcoin wallet seeds, providing entropy independent of potentially flawed hardware random number generators. It explains that each fair dice roll offers about 2.585 bits of entropy, with around 50 rolls needed for a standard 12-word seed phrase and 99+ recommended for higher security. This method gained attention after a vulnerability was revealed in some Coldcard hardware wallets, where a faulty firmware RNG (dating back to 2021) compromised generated keys. The analysis notes that while a dice-generated main seed was safe from this specific flaw, other Coldcard functions (like creating paper wallets, backup keys, or passwords) could still be vulnerable if they used the defective RNG. The piece argues that while dice-based entropy is technically robust, the manual process is error-prone, tedious, and unrealistic for most new users, who might make mistakes in recording or inputting rolls. It concludes that while manual entropy generation should remain an option for advanced users, the long-term goal is to develop reliable, user-friendly hardware and software that securely generates randomness without requiring specialized knowledge. Coldcard users are advised to check their firmware version and replace any secondary secrets (like paper wallet keys) created with vulnerable devices, while also considering multi-signature setups with devices from different manufacturers for added security.

cryptonews.ru7 saat önce

Thanks to Dice Rolls, Bitcoin Keys Are Stored Offline, But Not Everyone Will Do It

cryptonews.ru7 saat önce

İşlemler

Spot