# Technical Analysis İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Technical Analysis" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

Unlocking the 'Golden Key' in Prediction Markets Through 27.73 Million Transaction Data: 690 K-Line Strategies Struggle to Profit

The article investigates whether a profitable "golden key" strategy exists in prediction markets, using an analysis of 27.73 million transactions over 3,082 fifteen-minute BTC prediction markets. The study debunks several common approaches: Technical analysis based solely on price action, tested across 690 combinations of entry/exit points, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, yielded no positive expected value. Even high-win-rate strategies, like buying at 90% and selling at 99%, resulted in negative expectations due to poor risk-reward ratios. Similarly, arbitrage strategies aiming to profit from YES+NO prices below 1 were also unprofitable after accounting for real-world constraints. The research identifies two potentially viable strategies: 1. **Momentum-based trading**: A brief ~30-second window exists after sharp BTC price moves (>$150-$200) where prediction market token prices lag, allowing manual traders to capitalize on this inefficiency before algorithms adjust. 2. **Fair value model**: A model calculating a token's theoretical win probability based on BTC's volatility and time to expiry revealed that markets are inefficient. Profitable opportunities arise only when tokens trade at a significant discount (>10 cents) to their fair value. Buying at a premium, even with high win probability, leads to negative expected returns. The conclusion advises traders to abandon pure price-based technical analysis, focus on the underlying asset (BTC), respect probability valuations, and only buy at a discount to fair value to avoid being systematically outperformed by algorithms.

marsbit02/20 04:02

Unlocking the 'Golden Key' in Prediction Markets Through 27.73 Million Transaction Data: 690 K-Line Strategies Struggle to Profit

marsbit02/20 04:02

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