Polymarket: Odds of a U.S. Crypto Reserve in 2025 Plummet by 98%
Based on prediction market data from Polymarket, the probability of the United States establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the end of 2025 has plummeted by 98%, falling to just 1% from a peak of 77% in March. This sharp decline follows former President Donald Trump's campaign promise and subsequent executive order to create a national Bitcoin reserve, which initially fueled market optimism.
The market for this event, titled "US National Bitcoin Reserve by 2025?", launched in January with an initial probability of 41%. Optimism surged to 77% after Trump signed the order and Congress began working to codify it into law. However, the failure to conduct a mandated audit of federal crypto holdings by an April 5th deadline, a crucial step for forming the reserve, has caused confidence to collapse.
By December 8th, the tokenized "Yes" bet for the reserve's creation in 2025 was trading at just $0.01, representing a 1% probability and a total market volume of $5.15 million. A parallel market for the creation of a reserve by 2027 has also been launched but sees minimal activity. This event has been one of the largest on Polymarket, a leading crypto prediction platform whose data is increasingly cited by major news outlets like Bloomberg.
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