Summary: On the eve of Do Kwon's final sentencing hearing, LUNA and LUNA2 contracts recorded a staggering $1.8 billion in trading volume despite having no fundamental value. The market is speculating on the outcome of the trial, with extreme divergence between short and long positions. Prosecutors are seeking a 12-year sentence, while the defense argues for 5 years. This legal event has turned LUNA into a speculative instrument, detached from its original utility, highlighting how crypto markets efficiently price even events like judicial outcomes and human freedom. Regardless of the verdict, LUNA's volatility is expected to collapse post-hearing as the event-driven speculation concludes.

<html><head></head><body>Author: David, TechFlow
As of the evening of December 10th, you might not have noticed, but the contract data for the LUNA token is absolutely staggering.
Without any technical upgrades or positive ecosystem news, the 24-hour trading volume for the LUNA series contracts (including LUNA and LUNA2) across the entire market has approached a total of $1.8 billion.
And LUNA itself has surged 150% in the past week.
<div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/3ecd3cb8593843ce9af0b6d3191b1530.jpg" alt=""></div>
For comparison, the combined trading volume of LUNA and LUNA2 now ranks within the top ten for contract trading volume across the entire market, just behind HYPE's $1.88 billion.
Their respective funding rates are -0.0595% and -0.0789%.
Extremely negative funding rates indicate that the market is not only crowded but also in a state of extreme divergence: a significant amount of capital is shorting, while an even larger pool of capital is using this crowdedness to force a short squeeze.
We all know LUNA has little fundamental value left. This $1.8 billion in liquidity is essentially trading a bet on a prize about to be drawn:
Tomorrow, December 11th at 24:00, the former "Stablecoin King," Do Kwon, will face his final sentencing hearing in Courtroom 1305 of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
The market is using real money to bet on the prison sentence of this crypto magnate from the last cycle.
<h2>The Sentence Can Be Long or Short, Speculation Never Rests</h2>
To understand this $1.8 billion in contract volume, one needs to look at the current real progress of this case.
For most people, the name Do Kwon faded from view after the epic collapse in 2022.
But in fact, this former crypto tycoon was extradited to New York, USA, in late 2024. And in August of this year, he formally pleaded guilty in Manhattan federal court to multiple charges, including securities fraud.
Tomorrow's hearing is not a debate about "guilty or not guilty," but the final ruling on the length of the sentence. According to the latest court documents, there is a vast chasm between the prosecution and defense regarding sentencing recommendations:
The prosecution is pushing for 12 years in prison.
The U.S. Attorney's Office is taking a hard line, citing the tens of billions in losses from Terra's collapse and Do Kwon's fraudulent behavior regarding the "fake on-chain" claims about the Chai payment app before the crash.
From the market's perspective, 12 years represents a definitive end. At a 4-year crypto cycle rate, that's three full cycles with no Do Kwon.
The defense is requesting 5 years in prison.
The defense team is playing the "sympathy card," emphasizing that Do Kwon has already been detained in Montenegro for some time, pleaded guilty in good faith, and cooperated with the SEC's penalty enforcement.
<div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/0f025e6ce96e4317ba139685ff37d9f6.jpg" alt=""></div>
A 7-year gap is more than enough to fuel a day of speculation and capital games around the LUNA token.
The normal logic would be that if the founder gets a heavy sentence, the LUNA token is one step closer to zero. Hence the market is flooded with short positions, which we see in the negative funding rates;
But the main capital or market makers don't necessarily need to believe that Do Kwon will actually get a light 5-year sentence. They just need to use the uncertainty of the verdict to reverse the price, specifically hunting those overly crowded shorts.
This might also explain why LUNA surged on the eve of Do Kwon's sentencing. The market is certainly not celebrating justice but speculating on the verdict itself.
With the crypto market already lacking hotspots and generally weak, tomorrow's hearing has created one of the few pockets of volatility.
<h2>From Victims to Predators</h2>
You're awake. It's 2022 again.
If we had opened the LUNA holdings distribution chart in May 2022, we would have seen a much more tragic picture:
It was crowded with Korean retail investors who lost their life savings, crypto funds that suffered heavy blows, and speculators trying to buy the dip only to be buried. Trading then was filled with more anger, despair, and irrational attempts to save themselves.
Three years later, the market's microstructure has undergone a complete blood change.
The victims of that time have long since cut their losses and left. Sitting at the table now are perhaps a completely different set of participants. Think high-frequency quant teams, event-driven hedge funds, and speculators专门 hunting "junk assets."
For these new players, questions about whether Do Kwon is innocent or whether the Terra ecosystem has a future are not only irrelevant but even noise. The only metric they care about is Event Beta, the sensitivity of the asset's price to specific legal news.
In this context, LUNA's asset attributes have actually mutated into a derivative instrument centered around the legal outcome, much like how the fluctuations of certain Meme coins revolve around the actions of a public figure.
This is an extremely brutal form of maturity in the crypto market. Death or imprisonment can itself be "monetized."
The current trading of LUNA, and even many other shell tokens, is essentially disaster pricing. The main capital knows full well that the fundamentals are zero. But as long as there is divergence, as long as there is space for long-short games, this "empty shell" is a perfect trading target.
One could even say that it is precisely because there is no fundamental anchor that the token's price fluctuations are no longer constrained and depend entirely on emotional宣泄.
It also confirms the saying that most tokens in the crypto market are essentially memes.
<h2>Pricing Everything</h2>
After the sentencing tomorrow, whether Do Kwon hears "5 years" or "12 years," the outcome for LUNA as a trading instrument will likely be the same.
Once the event is over, the token will probably become毫无波动 again; not only can bad news kill the momentum, but confirmed good news can too.
If it's a heavy sentence, logic returns to fundamentals, price goes to zero; if it's a light sentence, it's "Sell the News," and profit-takers will retreat like a receding tide.
<div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/d9d66e1a488b4657acb23f63eeee9e3a.jpg" alt=""></div>
Objectively speaking, LUNA is actually a great lens for observation.
It has reflected a technological narrative of an algorithmic stablecoin, and it also reflects the extremely mature, extremely cold-blooded side of this market.
The current crypto market can efficiently repackage even a dead coin and a convicted founder into chips on the betting table, as long as there's a shred of news value.
The efficiency of liquidity in the crypto market has evolved to an extreme. It can price anything: sentiment, bugs, memes... and of course, a person's freedom and a form of judicial justice.
In the face of such extreme efficiency, moral judgment seems somewhat superfluous.
Do Kwon's future life might be spent sadly in prison, but the crypto market has no sadness, only volatility yet to be priced in.
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On the Eve of Do Kwon's Trial, $1.8 Billion Is Betting on His Sentence

深潮

The cryptocurrency market is witnessing an extraordinary $1.8 billion in futures trading volume for LUNA and LUNA2 tokens, despite their lack of fundamental value. This surge in speculative activity is directly tied to the upcoming sentencing hearing of Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon in a New York federal court on December 11th.

Prosecutors are seeking a 12-year prison sentence for Kwon’s role in the $40 billion Terra-LUNA collapse, while his defense team is arguing for a 5-year term. This 7-year discrepancy has created a high-stakes betting environment. The market is characterized by extreme divergence, with a high volume of short positions (indicated by negative funding rates) and a powerful counter-force of buyers attempting to squeeze those shorts.

The article argues that the current LUNA traders are not the original victims of the crash but are now primarily event-driven speculators, quantitative funds, and opportunistic traders. For them, LUNA has been transformed from a failed project into a pure "legal derivative," a volatile instrument whose price is entirely driven by the legal outcome of Kwon's case, devoid of any fundamental anchor.

The author concludes that regardless of the sentencing outcome—whether a harsh or light sentence—the event's conclusion will likely cause LUNA's price to collapse. A harsh sentence would reaffirm its zero fundamental value, while a light sentence would trigger a "sell the news" event. This situation exemplifies the crypto market's cold, hyper-efficient ability to price and monetize anything, including justice and a person's freedom, reducing moral judgment to mere noise against the pursuit of volatility and profit.

<html><head></head><body>Author: David, TechFlow
Original Title: On the Eve of Do Kwon's Sentencing, $1.8 Billion Is Betting on His Prison Term
<hr/>
As of the evening of December 10th, you might not have noticed, but the contract data for LUNA tokens is absolutely staggering.
Without any technical upgrades or positive news about its ecosystem, the combined 24-hour trading volume for LUNA series contracts (including LUNA and LUNA2) across the entire market has approached $1.8 billion.
And LUNA itself has surged 150% in the past week.
<div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/061ac919c4bd44458a6c1a103d6ef0f6.jpg" alt=""></div>
For comparison, the combined trading volume of LUNA and LUNA2 now ranks within the top ten for contract trading volume across the entire market, just behind HYPE's $1.88 billion.
Their funding rates are -0.0595% and -0.0789%, respectively.
Such high negative funding rates indicate the market is not only crowded but also in a state of extreme divergence: a significant amount of capital is shorting, while an even larger pool of capital is using this crowding to force a short squeeze.
We all know LUNA has little fundamental value left. This $1.8 billion in liquidity is essentially trading a bet on an imminent outcome:
Tomorrow, December 11th at midnight (24:00), the once "Stablecoin King" Do Kwon will face his final sentencing hearing in Courtroom 1305 of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
The market is placing real-money bets on the prison sentence of this crypto magnate from the last cycle.
Sentence Could Be Long or Short, Speculation Never Rests
To understand this $1.8 billion in contract volume, one needs to look at the current real progress of this case.
For most people, the name Do Kwon faded from view after the epic collapse in 2022.
But in fact, this former crypto tycoon was extradited to New York, USA, by the end of 2024. And in August of this year, he formally pleaded guilty in Manhattan federal court to multiple charges, including securities fraud.
Tomorrow's hearing is not a debate about "guilty or not guilty," but the final ruling on the length of the sentence. According to the latest court documents, there is a vast chasm between the sentencing recommendations of the prosecution and defense:
The prosecution is pushing for 12 years in prison.
The U.S. Attorney's Office is taking a hard line, citing the tens of billions in losses from Terra's collapse and Do Kwon's fraudulent behavior regarding the false on-chain' status of the Chai payment application before the crash.
From the market's perspective, 12 years represents a definitive end. At 4-year crypto cycles, that's three full cycles without Do Kwon.
The defense is requesting 5 years in prison.
The defense team is playing the "sympathy card," emphasizing that Do Kwon has already been detained in Montenegro for some time, pleaded guilty in good faith, and cooperated with the SEC's penalty enforcement.
<div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/d4f96529cf4f4a4e93cdc9093e35b556.jpg" alt=""></div>
A 7-year gap is more than enough to fuel a day of speculation and capital games around the LUNA token.
The normal logic would be that if the founder gets a heavy sentence, the LUNA token is one step closer to zero. Hence the market is flooded with short positions, reflected in the negative funding rate.
But the main capital, or the whales, don't necessarily need to believe that Do Kwon will actually get a light 5-year sentence. They just need to exploit this sentencing uncertainty, pump the price in the opposite direction, and hunt the overly crowded shorts.
This might also explain why LUNA surged on the eve of Do Kwon's sentencing. The market isn't celebrating justice; it's speculating on the verdict itself.
With the crypto market lacking major catalysts and generally weak, tomorrow's hearing creates one of the few sources of localized volatility.
From Victims to Predators
Wake up, it's 2022 again.
If we had looked at LUNA's holder distribution chart in May 2022, we would have seen a much more tragic picture:
It was crowded with Korean retail investors who lost their life savings, crypto funds that suffered heavy blows, and speculators trying to buy the dip only to be buried. Trading then was filled with anger, despair, and irrational attempts to recoup losses.
Three years later, the market's microstructure has undergone a complete blood transfusion.
The victims from back then have long since sold at a loss. Sitting across the table now are perhaps entirely different participants. Think high-frequency quant teams, event-driven hedge funds, and speculators专门 hunting "junk assets."
For these new players, questions like whether Do Kwon is innocent or if the Terra ecosystem has a future are not only irrelevant but noise. The only metric they care about is Event Beta—the sensitivity of the asset's price to specific legal news.
In this context, LUNA's asset attributes have morphed into a derivative instrument centered around legal proceedings, much like how the fluctuations of certain Meme coins revolve around the actions of a public figure.
This represents an extremely brutal maturation of the crypto market. Death or imprisonment can itself be "monetized."
The current trading in LUNA, and even many other shell tokens, is essentially disaster pricing. The main capital knows full well the fundamentals are zero. But as long as there is divergence, as long as there is room for long-short博弈 (game theory/competition), this "empty shell" is a perfect trading target.
One could even argue that it is precisely the lack of a fundamental anchor that allows the token's price volatility to become unconstrained, dictated solely by sentiment.
It also echoes the saying that most tokens in the crypto market are essentially memes.
Pricing Everything
After the verdict is announced tomorrow, whether Do Kwon hears "5 years" or "12 years," the outcome for LUNA as a trading instrument will likely be the same.
Once the event is over, the token will probably become stagnant again; not only can bad news kill the momentum, but certain good news can too.
If the sentence is heavy, logic returns to fundamentals, and the price goes to zero. If the sentence is light, it's "Sell the News," and profit-takers will exit like a receding tide.
<div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/4f8b803809b74671b9b97f08af2cc061.jpg" alt=""></div>
Objectively speaking, LUNA is actually a great lens for observation.
It once reflected a technological narrative of an algorithmic stablecoin, and now it reflects an extremely mature and cold-blooded side of this market.
The current crypto market can efficiently repackage even a dead token and a convicted founder into chips for the gambling table, as long as there's a shred of news value left.
The efficiency of liquidity in the crypto market has evolved to an extreme. It can price anything: sentiment, bugs, memes... and certainly a person's freedom and the delivery of justice.
In the face of such extreme efficiency, moral judgment seems somewhat superfluous.
Do Kwon's future life might be spent sadly in prison, but the crypto market knows no sadness—only volatility yet to be priced.
<hr/>
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Bitpush TG Discussion Group:https://t.me/BitPushCommunity
Bitpush TG Channel: https://t.me/bitpush
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 <h5>Original link:https://www.bitpush.news/articles/7594619</h5>
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