Pre-FOMC Tension: Will Bitcoin Repeat Its Post-Cut Pattern?

bitcoinist2025-12-11 tarihinde yayınlandı2025-12-11 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Bitcoin is holding above $92,000 but sentiment remains bearish ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Historically, Bitcoin often rallies before Fed rate cuts but shows muted or negative reactions afterward, as markets price in the move in advance. A CryptoQuant report notes that past cuts, like those in September 2025, saw little immediate price movement or brief rallies followed by declines. This suggests a "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern may occur again. Monitoring leverage, open interest, and liquidity flows is key to anticipating short-term volatility around the FOMC announcement.

Bitcoin is holding firm above the $92,000 level after rebounding from last week’s dip toward $90,000, offering bulls a brief moment of relief. Yet despite this stabilization, market sentiment remains decisively bearish, with many traders expecting further downside unless a clear shift in momentum emerges. The timing couldn’t be more crucial: the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision has become the central focus for investors, and the market is bracing for heightened volatility.

According to a new CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin’s historical behavior around rate cuts offers meaningful context. Over the years, Fed interest rate cuts have generally aligned with upward movements in BTC, largely because lower rates weaken the US dollar, stimulate liquidity, and support risk assets. However, the report highlights an important nuance—the immediate reaction is rarely straightforward.

In several past instances, Bitcoin rallied ahead of rate cuts, only to show muted or even negative price action once the decision was announced, indicating that markets had already priced in the move.

This dynamic creates a layer of uncertainty heading into the FOMC meeting. While macro conditions align with long-term bullish trends for Bitcoin, the short-term outlook remains fragile, shaped by sentiment, positioning, and the market’s anticipation rather than the announcement itself.

Historical Patterns Signal Caution Ahead of the FOMC

According to the report by GugaOnChain on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s past reactions to Federal Reserve rate cuts offer a clear framework for understanding the risks heading into this week’s FOMC meeting. The historical data paints a picture of mixed and often counterintuitive behavior.

For example, following the 25 basis point cuts in September 2025, Bitcoin barely reacted at all. In another instance, BTC surged to a four-week high—only to drop nearly $2,000 shortly after, settling into a period of muted stability. These reactions underscore how quickly sentiment can shift once policy decisions are fully priced in.

Volatility has also played a defining role. Both the September and October rate decisions triggered brief pre-FOMC rallies, followed by notable declines once the announcements were made. After the September cut, volatility spiked sharply as traders unwound leveraged positions, revealing how sensitive Bitcoin remains to event-driven positioning.

Bitcoin Open Interest | Source: CryptoQuant

This leads to the recurring “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern, a dynamic that GugaOnChain warns could repeat. Because of this, monitoring market leverage—including funding rates and open interest—is crucial. Equally important are liquidity flows, such as exchange reserves and ETF activity. Together, these indicators help traders anticipate short-term price movements as Bitcoin prepares for another potentially volatile macro event.

İlgili Okumalar

Strategy survives first Nasdaq 100 shakeup since entering the index

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, retained its position in the Nasdaq 100 index during the latest annual rebalancing, despite a 3.74% drop in its stock on the day. The company, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, recently purchased an additional 10,624 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 660,624 BTC worth nearly $60 billion. However, its stock has declined over 15% in the past month. MSCI is reviewing whether to classify companies with substantial crypto holdings as investment vehicles rather than operating firms. If MSCI enforces a rule excluding firms with over 50% of assets in crypto, Strategy could be affected as early as January, potentially forcing passive funds to sell up to $2.8 billion in shares. Strategy's leadership argues it is an operating company, not a passive Bitcoin holder. To address market concerns, Strategy raised $1.44 billion to meet dividend and debt obligations. CEO Michael Saylor continues promoting Bitcoin as "digital gold" and is engaging institutional investors to bring more capital into the space.

cointelegraph21 dk önce

Strategy survives first Nasdaq 100 shakeup since entering the index

cointelegraph21 dk önce

The Silver Crisis: When the Paper System Begins to Fail

Silver Crisis: When the Paper System Begins to Fail In December, silver became the standout performer in the precious metals market, surging from $40 to over $60 per ounce, hitting a historic high of $64.28 on December 12 before experiencing sharp declines. Year-to-date, silver rose nearly 110%, far outpacing gold’s 60% gain. The rally appears justified by fundamental factors: expectations of Fed rate cuts, strong industrial demand from solar, EV, and AI sectors, and declining global inventories. However, the surge lacks stability. Unlike gold, which is backed by central bank purchases, silver has almost no official reserves, making it an isolated asset with low market depth and high volatility. The real driver behind the price spike is a futures squeeze. The market structure shifted into prolonged futures premium (contango), indicating either extreme bullish sentiment or deliberate market manipulation. Physical delivery demands surged on exchanges like COMEX and LBMA, exposing the fragility of the paper silver system—where paper claims vastly exceed actual physical silver. JPMorgan, a key player historically accused of silver market manipulation, now controls nearly 43% of COMEX silver inventories and acts as the custodian for major silver ETFs. Its influence over physical supply and delivery eligibility adds to market instability. The situation reflects a broader loss of confidence in financialized assets. Investors and central banks are increasingly shifting toward physical holdings, moving away from paper claims. This trend, coupled with declining Western gold and silver inventories and rising Asian demand, signals a structural shift in monetary and commodity markets. In essence, the rules of the game are changing. When the music stops, those holding physical metal will have a chair—everyone else may be left standing.

marsbit1 saat önce

The Silver Crisis: When the Paper System Begins to Fail

marsbit1 saat önce

Spot volumes drop 66% in ‘lulls’ that often precede next cycle leg: Bitfinex

Bitfinex reports a 66% decline in crypto spot trading volumes this quarter, dropping from over $500 billion in early November to around $250 billion. The exchange notes this mirrors historical market lulls that often precede the next cycle upswing. Analysts observe Bitcoin's tightening price structure near key levels of $89,000–$92,000, suggesting a breakout toward $100,000 is possible if resistance is broken. Despite a recent Fed rate cut and a large institutional purchase, momentum faded as the move was already priced in, leaving markets subdued amid softer ETF inflows and macroeconomic uncertainty.

cointelegraph1 saat önce

Spot volumes drop 66% in ‘lulls’ that often precede next cycle leg: Bitfinex

cointelegraph1 saat önce

Crypto Unrealized Losses Hit $350 Billion, With $85 Billion From Bitcoin Alone

On-chain data reveals the cryptocurrency market's total unrealized losses have surged to $350 billion, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $85 billion of that amount. This spike follows recent bearish price action, with the metric measuring the extent of underwater holdings across the market. Analysts from Glassnode suggest these significant losses, alongside shrinking liquidity indicators, signal the market is entering a high-volatility period. In a contrasting trend, Bitcoin and Ethereum showed divergent exchange flows: Bitcoin saw net withdrawals of $1.34 billion from exchanges, while Ethereum experienced net deposits of $1.03 billion, which can be a bearish signal. Bitcoin's price has retreated to around $90,000 after failing to hold above $92,000.

bitcoinist1 saat önce

Crypto Unrealized Losses Hit $350 Billion, With $85 Billion From Bitcoin Alone

bitcoinist1 saat önce

$300M wiped out – Could BOJ rate hike fears spark a crypto crash?

Investors are closely watching the upcoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting amid fears of a potential rate hike, which has rattled global markets. The crypto market cap dropped 2.4%, with Bitcoin falling below $90k, and nearly $300 million in leveraged positions were liquidated—87% from long trades. The sell-off also impacted U.S. equities, with the S&P500 down 7%. The BOJ rate hike could increase borrowing costs, reducing the flow of cheap yen used to fund global investments, including crypto. With fading FOMO, weakening key support levels, and growing long liquidity clusters, the market faces increased risk of a sharp downturn similar to October's crash.

ambcrypto1 saat önce

$300M wiped out – Could BOJ rate hike fears spark a crypto crash?

ambcrypto1 saat önce

İşlemler

Spot

Futures