Plunging 10% Then Surging: Weekend Crude Oil Market Watch

marsbit2026-04-20 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-04-20 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Following a 10% plunge, oil prices surged over the weekend as geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated dramatically. The initial market optimism, driven by the strait’s brief reopening on Friday, quickly reversed on Saturday when Iran reinstated restrictions and fired on vessels, halting nearly all traffic. In response, oil contracts rose approximately 4.52%, while S&P futures fell nearly 0.8%. U.S. President Trump alternated between diplomatic gestures—sending an envoy for talks—and threats to destroy Iranian infrastructure if no deal was reached. Iran rejected further negotiations, fearing a U.S. attack before the midweek ceasefire deadline. This triggered another spike in oil, surpassing Saturday’s highs, and further pressured equity markets. Crypto-related stocks underperformed significantly. Market optimism is expected to be punished, and the week ahead hinges on whether Iran maintains its refusal to negotiate.

Friday's reopening of the critical Hormuz Strait waterway triggered widespread risk-on sentiment in the markets: U.S. stocks soared, crude oil prices plummeted, U.S. Treasury yields fell, as the belief spread that the worst was over and the disruption to global energy supplies had eased.

However, these moves may prove to be premature.

At 9:20 AM on the 18th (Saturday), reports broke that two oil tankers had been denied passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump immediately applied public pressure: if no deal was reached by Wednesday, the U.S. would continue blockading Iranian ports. At 16:00 that day, Iran announced the re-imposition of restrictions on the Strait and opened fire on vessels attempting to pass—two Indian ships turned back into the Persian Gulf after being shelled, bringing shipping traffic in the Strait to a near standstill.

Traders reacted swiftly on TradeXYZ, with crude oil contracts gaining about 4.52% compared to the weekend closing price, and S&P index contracts falling nearly 0.8%.

Trump then shifted his stance, revealing that envoy Steve Witkoff would travel to Pakistan for talks with the Iranian side on Tuesday, potentially extending the negotiation window until Wednesday.

He then turned around and posted on Truth Social, stating, "The deal we offered is very fair and reasonable, I hope they accept it, because if they don't, the U.S. will destroy every power plant and every bridge in Iran."

Iran was clearly not buying it. At 1:53 AM on the 20th, the Iranian side announced its refusal to participate in a second round of talks; according to Axios, Tehran's assessment was that the U.S. might launch an attack before the Tuesday night ceasefire expiration.

Driven by this news, crude oil surged again, clearing the highs from the 18th, while the S&P index correspondingly broke below the lows from the 18th.

On the individual stock front, three crypto-related stocks significantly underperformed others.

Predictably, the spreading optimism in the market last week will be punished. This week's market movements will largely depend on whether Iran can maintain its no-negotiation stance.

İlgili Sorular

QWhat event initially caused the surge in risk appetite in the markets on Friday?

AThe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.

QWhat specific action did Iran take on Saturday that reversed the initial market optimism?

AIran re-imposed restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz and fired on vessels attempting to pass through, causing shipping to nearly halt.

QHow did crude oil futures react on TradeXYZ following the news of the Strait of Hormuz incident?

ACrude oil contracts rose by approximately 4.52% compared to the weekend's closing price.

QWhat was the content of Donald Trump's threat on Truth Social if Iran did not accept the U.S. deal?

AHe stated that if Iran did not accept the deal, the U.S. would 'destroy every power plant and every bridge in Iran.'

QWhat was the final event that caused crude oil to surge again and erase the previous day's highs?

AIran's announcement that it would refuse to participate in the second round of negotiations, fueled by reports that the U.S. might launch an attack before the ceasefire expired.

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