Oscars Preview: Who Are the Big Players in Prediction Markets Betting On?

Odaily星球日报2026-03-12 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-03-12 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

"Oscar Predictions 2026: Where Are the Prediction Market Whales Placing Their Bets?" As the 98th Academy Awards approach on March 15, 2026, the crypto prediction market Polymarket is offering its own forecasts on the winners, with significant trading volume indicating where large bettors, or "whales," are placing their capital. In the high-stakes Best Picture category, "One Battle After Another" is the current frontrunner with a 76% probability, followed by "Sinners" at 20%. Analysis of top wallets shows one address holds a substantial "YES" position on this outcome with an 89.7% win rate. The Best Actor race has seen a major shift; Timothée Chalamet was previously the favorite with an 80% probability, but Michael B. Jordan has now surged ahead to a 57% chance. Notably, the top wallet betting "YES" on Jordan has a negative historical profit, while a major "NO" bettor on Chalamet has profited over $2.82 million. Several categories appear to be near-certain "sure bets" or "savings plans." Paul Thomas Anderson is the overwhelming favorite for Best Director with a 91% probability. For Best Actress, Jessie Buckley leads with a 97% chance. "Sinners" also dominates Best Original Screenplay with a 96% probability. Other closely watched categories include Best Supporting Actress, where Amy Madigan leads at 52%, and Best Supporting Actor, where Sean Penn is the favorite at 73%. "One Battle After Another" also leads in Best Cinematography with a 73% probability.

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

The 98th Academy Awards ceremony will be held on March 15, 2026. As the awards night approaches, discussions about "who will win" are heating up rapidly.

Beyond predictions from traditional media, film critics, and fans, crypto prediction markets are also providing their own set of answers. So, in the eyes of prediction market participants, who is most likely to take home the major awards at this year's Oscars?

Next, Odaily Planet Daily will梳理 (sort through) the winning probability situations for each award based on the latest market data from Polymarket. At the same time, we will analyze the betting situations of the top addresses holding positions in related events to find potential trading opportunities.

Best Picture Award: "One Battle After Another" Temporarily Ranks First with a 76% Real-Time Probability

Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner, trading volume over $29 million;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-picture-winner.

Currently, for the Best Picture award, "One Battle After Another" temporarily ranks first with a 75% real-time probability, while "Sinners" ranks second with a probability of 20%.

Address Holdings Analysis

Top "YES" Holder for 《One Battle After Another》: Address: 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397. This address has a high win rate of 89.7%. The average purchase price for the "YES" shares on 《One Battle After Another》 was 54.8 cents.

Address Holding Only the Single Event "One Battle After Another": Address: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d. This address bought nearly 10,000 "YES" shares at an average price of 74 cents 5 days ago. It currently holds only the single event bet for "One Battle After Another" winning Best Picture.

Best Actor Award: Michael B. Jordan Temporarily Ranks First with a 57% Real-Time Probability

Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner, trading volume nearly $7 million;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-winner.

Currently, for the Best Actor award, Michael B. Jordan temporarily ranks first with a 57% real-time probability, while Timothée Chalamet ranks second with a probability of 34%.

It is worth mentioning that before the 7th of this month, Timothée Chalamet's probability had consistently been in first place, once reaching as high as 80%.

Address Holdings Analysis

Top "YES" Holder for Michael B. Jordan: Address: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271. This address has a win rate of only 48%, with a historical profit/loss of negative $200,000.

Top "NO" Holder for Michael B. Jordan: Address: 0xafbacaeeda63f31202759eff7f8126e49adfe61b. This address has a win rate of 53%, with a historical profit/loss of $172,000.

Top "YES" Holder for Timothée Chalamet: Address: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, which is also the top "YES" holder for Michael B. Jordan. This shows the address is betting that either Michael B. Jordan or Timothée Chalamet will win the Best Actor award.

Top "NO" Holder for Timothée Chalamet: Address: 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344. This address has a high win rate of 63%, with a historical profit/loss of $2.82 million.

Best Director Award: Paul Thomas Anderson Temporarily Ranks First with a 91% Real-Time Probability

Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner, trading volume nearly $5 million;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-director-winner.

Currently, for the Best Director award, Paul Thomas Anderson temporarily ranks first with a 94% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet" or "savings account" scenario.

Address Holdings Analysis

Top "YES" Holder for Paul Thomas Anderson: Address: 0x998154d8eb4ba7c4b34b10d76b9742d922d7dec4. This address has a high win rate of 83.6%. The average purchase price for the "YES" shares on Paul Thomas Anderson was 93 cents.

Best Actress Award: Jessie Buckley Temporarily Ranks First with a 97% Real-Time Probability

Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner, trading volume over $1.5 million;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actress-winner.

Currently, for the Best Actress award, Jessie Buckley temporarily ranks first with a 97% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award also seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet" or "savings account" scenario.

Other Popular Awards

Additionally, awards with high discussion heat include:

一、Best Supporting Actress Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actress-winner), Amy Madigan temporarily ranks first with a 52% real-time probability; Teyana Taylor ranks second with a probability of 26%; Wunmi Mosaku ranks third with a probability of 21%.

二、Best Supporting Actor Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actor-winner), Sean Penn temporarily ranks first with a 73% real-time probability; Stellan Skarsgård ranks second with a probability of 19%; Delroy Lindo ranks third with a probability of 7%.

三、Best Cinematography Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-cinematography-winner), "One Battle After Another" temporarily ranks first with a 73% real-time probability; "Sinners" ranks second with a probability of 20%.

四、Best Original Screenplay Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-original-screenplay-winner), "Sinners" temporarily ranks first with a 96% real-time probability, potentially a "sure bet" or "savings account" scenario.

İlgili Sorular

QAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, which film is currently the frontrunner to win the Best Picture award at the 2026 Oscars and what is its probability?

AAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, 'One Battle After Another' is the current frontrunner to win the Best Picture award with a real-time probability of 76%.

QWhich actor is currently favored to win the Best Actor award, and what significant shift in the odds is mentioned?

AMichael B. Jordan is currently favored to win the Best Actor award with a 57% probability. A significant shift mentioned is that before the 7th of the month, Timothée Chalamet was the frontrunner with a probability that was once as high as 80%.

QWhich two categories are described as having outcomes with almost no suspense and being potential 'sure bets' or 'savings plans'?

AThe Best Director award, where Paul Thomas Anderson has a 94% probability, and the Best Actress award, where Jessie Buckley has a 97% probability, are described as having almost no suspense and being potential 'sure bets'.

QWhat is the trading volume for the Polymarket event predicting the Best Picture winner?

AThe trading volume for the Polymarket event 'Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner' is over $29 million.

QFor the Best Supporting Actor award, who are the top three contenders and their respective probabilities?

AFor the Best Supporting Actor award, the top three contenders are Sean Penn in first place with a 73% probability, Stellan Skarsgård in second with 19%, and Delroy Lindo in third with 7%.

İlgili Okumalar

Michael Saylor: 110 Reasons to Oppose BIP-110

Michael Saylor presents 110 arguments against Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) 110, a soft fork aimed at restricting certain non-monetary data storage uses (like inscriptions) on the Bitcoin blockchain. He acknowledges the proponents' valid concerns—such as node costs, fee pressure, and preserving Bitcoin's monetary focus—but fundamentally disagrees with the proposed solution. Saylor argues that BIP 110 represents a dangerous precedent of using consensus rules to enforce value judgments on transaction validity, moving away from Bitcoin's core principles of neutrality and permissionless innovation. His key objections are organized into eleven categories: 1) It violates neutrality and hard consensus by banning currently valid transactions. 2) It fails to meet the high burden of proof required for a consensus change, lacking concrete data on the alleged crisis. 3) Its seven bundled technical restrictions are overly broad, targeting generic script functionalities and blocking future upgrade paths. 4) It sacrifices compatibility and future optionality by closing off designed upgrade hooks. 5) Its temporary rules add significant complexity (grandfathering, expiry states) without sufficient justification. 6) The economic and security impacts, particularly on miner revenue and fee markets, are uncertain and unmodeled. 7) Superior, market-based tools (fee markets, relay/mining policies) already exist to manage blockchain load. 8) It stifles innovation by creating a chilling effect for developers. 9) Its modified activation mechanism (55% threshold, forced signaling) is aggressive and risks network splits. 10) The precedent it sets—using consensus to suppress disliked but legal uses—is more dangerous than the problem it aims to solve. 11) A better path exists: improving measurements, refining resource-based policies, and allowing market forces to work. Saylor concludes that Bitcoin's strength lies in its neutral rules, open markets, and hard consensus. Changing these foundational elements to target specific use cases is an unnecessary and risky "iatrogenic" intervention. He advocates for guarding Bitcoin's neutrality rather than acting as its redeemer.

marsbit11 dk önce

Michael Saylor: 110 Reasons to Oppose BIP-110

marsbit11 dk önce

United Stables Crosses $1B As Chainlink Data Feeds Secure U Token Collateral

United Stables' U token has surpassed $1 billion in market capitalization, with Chainlink Data Feeds providing the critical pricing and collateral data infrastructure across its deployment chains. This milestone highlights that robust oracle infrastructure is essential for stablecoin credibility, as DeFi protocols require reliable data for integration. Chainlink's role is foundational, enabling automated collateral auditing and pricing verification, which helps make the U token safer for the broader market to evaluate and use. While this strengthens Chainlink's position in the stablecoin infrastructure narrative, it does not directly guarantee increased fees or value for LINK token holders. The growth of U indicates both widening competition in the stablecoin sector and the increasing dependence of scalable stablecoins on dependable external data services.

bitcoinist1 saat önce

United Stables Crosses $1B As Chainlink Data Feeds Secure U Token Collateral

bitcoinist1 saat önce

BonkDAO Treasury Drain Shows Solana Governance Risk Is Real

The BonkDAO treasury suffered an approximately $20 million drain due to a malicious governance proposal passed through the Realms platform on Solana. This incident highlights governance as a critical attack surface for DAOs, distinct from smart contract exploits. The attack leveraged the DAO's own voting mechanics to move funds, demonstrating that flawed governance design—such as weak proposal rules or voter weight calculations—can be exploited even when the underlying blockchain functions correctly. The event serves as a warning for Solana DAOs to rigorously review and strengthen their governance safeguards, including quorum thresholds, timelocks, and execution permissions. While damaging to community trust, especially for the prominent BONK meme ecosystem, the issue is not a failure of the Solana base layer but a widespread application-level risk common across blockchain ecosystems.

bitcoinist1 saat önce

BonkDAO Treasury Drain Shows Solana Governance Risk Is Real

bitcoinist1 saat önce

Midnight Token Falls After $13M Wanchain Bridge Exploit

Midnight's NIGHT token plummeted roughly 30% following a $13.2 million exploit on a Wanchain cross-chain bridge. The attacker drained 515 million NIGHT tokens by exploiting a signature reuse flaw in the bridge's infrastructure, not the core Cardano or Midnight networks. This incident highlights the persistent vulnerability of cross-chain bridges, which are critical for asset transfers but introduce complex security risks. While the underlying blockchains remained secure, the token's price suffered due to liquidity disruption and lost market confidence. The response from Wanchain, including pausing the affected bridge and providing clear communication on recovery efforts, will be crucial for stabilizing the situation. The event serves as a reminder for traders to factor in bridge-related risks when evaluating tokens reliant on cross-chain liquidity.

bitcoinist2 saat önce

Midnight Token Falls After $13M Wanchain Bridge Exploit

bitcoinist2 saat önce

Bitcoin: Will a $130.5M whale move derail BTC’s push toward $70K?

A long-term Bitcoin whale moved 2,000 BTC (worth $130.5 million), transferring 800 BTC to an OTC desk (Cumberland) and 1,200 BTC to new addresses. While this suggests a potential partial sale, it did not negatively impact BTC's price, which continued its bullish trend to around $66,195. Technical indicators like the Stochastic Momentum Index and Squeeze Momentum Indicator remain positive, supporting a potential push toward $70,000. However, on-chain metrics show rising pressure. The Bitcoin Fund Flow Ratio and Exchange Netflow have turned positive, indicating increased inflows to exchanges. This typically raises the risk of short-term selling, which could weaken momentum and potentially test support near $64,800 if profit-taking persists.

ambcrypto2 saat önce

Bitcoin: Will a $130.5M whale move derail BTC’s push toward $70K?

ambcrypto2 saat önce

İşlemler

Spot