National-Level Players Enter the Game: The 2025 Revelation of Cryptocurrency Crime Spiraling Out of Control

marsbit2026-01-10 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-01-10 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Summary: In 2025, state-level cryptocurrency activity surged, marking a new phase in the maturation of illicit on-chain ecosystems. Illicit addresses received at least $154 billion, a 162% year-over-year increase, largely driven by a 694% spike in transactions involving sanctioned entities. Stablecoins dominated these flows, accounting for 84% of all illicit transaction volume. Key trends include North Korean hackers stealing a record $2 billion, including the largest crypto theft in history from Bybit. Russia launched the ruble-backed A7A5 token, which saw $93.3 billion in transaction volume within a year, facilitating large-scale evasion. Chinese money laundering networks emerged as dominant, sophisticated operators offering full-service criminal enterprises. Iran-linked proxy networks moved over $2 billion for activities including oil sales and weapons procurement. Illicit actors and nations increasingly rely on full-stack infrastructure providers resistant to takedowns and sanctions. Furthermore, the connection between crypto and real-world violent crime is growing, with increased use in human trafficking and a rise in violent coercion attacks to seize crypto assets during price peaks. Collaboration between law enforcement, regulators, and crypto firms is crucial to counter these evolving, interconnected threats.

Original Author: Chainalysis

Original Compilation: Chopper, Foresight News

In 2025, we observed a significant increase in cryptocurrency-related activities at the national level, marking a new mature stage in the development of the illegal on-chain ecosystem. Over the past few years, the professionalization of the cryptocurrency crime sector has deepened; illegal organizations have now established large-scale on-chain infrastructure to support transnational criminal networks in procuring goods and services and laundering proceeds from crypto crimes. Against this backdrop, governments have also begun to enter this field, leveraging these mature professional service providers on one hand, while building their own customized infrastructure on the other to evade sanctions on a large scale. As governments connect to this cryptocurrency supply chain originally built for cybercriminals and organized crime groups, government agencies, compliance, and security teams now face severe challenges in terms of consumer rights protection and national security.

What are the specific on-chain manifestations of these trends and other industry changes? Next, we will analyze them by combining data and macro trends.

According to our monitoring data, the scale of funds flowing into illegal cryptocurrency addresses in 2025 reached at least $154 billion, a sharp increase of 162% year-on-year. This growth was primarily driven by a surge in fund inflows to sanctioned entities, which soared by 694% year-on-year. However, even excluding the growth from sanctioned entities, 2025 was still a record year for cryptocurrency crime, as the scale of the vast majority of illegal activities increased.

Nevertheless, the scale of these illegal transactions still pales in comparison to the overall cryptocurrency economy, as the main participants in the cryptocurrency market remain legitimate transactions. According to our estimates, although the proportion of illegal transactions in the total traceable cryptocurrency transaction volume in 2025 increased slightly compared to 2024, it remained below 1%.

As shown in the figure below, we also observed a continuous shift in the types of assets involved in cryptocurrency crimes.

Over the past few years, stablecoins have gradually become the dominant asset in illegal transactions, currently accounting for 84% of the total illegal transaction volume. This trend aligns with the overall development characteristics of the cryptocurrency ecosystem: with advantages such as convenient cross-border transfers, low volatility, and wide application scenarios, stablecoins continue to expand their share in the overall cryptocurrency transactions.

The following sections will delve into the core trends that defined the cryptocurrency crime landscape in 2025, which remain worthy of attention in the future.

National-Level Threats Drive Transaction Scale: North Korea Sets New Record in Theft, Russia's A7A5 Token Facilitates Large-Scale Sanction Evasion

In 2025, stolen funds remained a major threat to the cryptocurrency ecosystem, with hacking groups linked to North Korea alone stealing $2 billion. This figure was primarily driven by several highly destructive large-scale hacking incidents, the most notable of which was the attack on the Bybit exchange in February. The incident involved nearly $1.5 billion, making it the largest digital asset theft in the history of cryptocurrency. Although North Korean hackers have long been a major force threatening the cryptocurrency ecosystem, the past year set new records both in terms of the amount stolen and the sophistication of intrusion and money laundering methods.

Particularly noteworthy is that the scale of on-chain activities by governments reached unprecedented levels in 2025. Russia introduced relevant legislation in 2024 to promote the use of cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions, and this measure was officially implemented in February 2025. The country launched the ruble-backed token A7A5, which achieved a transaction volume of over $93.3 billion in less than a year since its launch.

Meanwhile, over the past few years, Iran's proxy networks have conducted money laundering, illegal oil transactions, and bulk commodity procurement for weapons through confirmed wallet addresses that have been placed on the sanctions list, with a cumulative transaction volume exceeding $2 billion. Despite multiple military strikes, Iran-supported terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis continue to use cryptocurrencies on an unprecedented scale.

In 2025, Chinese money laundering networks emerged as a dominant force in the illegal on-chain ecosystem. These organizations operate with high precision, greatly driving the diversification and professionalization of cryptocurrency crimes, offering specialized criminal services including "money laundering services." Building on early illegal operation models such as "Huiyin Guarantee," these networks have established full-service criminal enterprises, covering areas such as fraud, scams, laundering proceeds from North Korean hacking thefts, sanction evasion, and terrorism financing.

Full-Stack Illegal Infrastructure Providers Fuel Malicious Network Activities

While governments are increasing their use of cryptocurrencies, traditional cybercrime activities remain rampant: ransomware operators, child sexual abuse and cybercrime platforms, malware distributors, scammers, and illegal trading markets still rely on extensive support networks to maintain operations. Illegal actors and governments are increasingly dependent on full-stack on-chain infrastructure providers, including domain registrars, secure and reliable hosting services, and other technical infrastructure that can be used to carry out malicious network activities.

These infrastructure providers have evolved into comprehensive infrastructure platforms capable of resisting platform takedowns, abuse complaints, and sanction enforcement. As the scale of these services continues to expand, they may become key drivers in expanding the scope of malicious network activities for economic crime and state-supported forces.

The Increasing Correlation Between Cryptocurrency and Violent Crime

In the perception of many, cryptocurrency crime is still confined to the virtual world. The masterminds are merely anonymous figures hiding behind keyboards, posing no real-world threat. However, in reality, the connection between on-chain activities and violent crime is deepening. Human trafficking groups are increasingly using cryptocurrencies for transactions; at the same time, disturbingly, the number of violent coercion attacks has risen significantly, with criminals using violent means to force victims to transfer crypto assets, and such assaults often occur during peak cryptocurrency price periods.

Looking ahead, collaboration between law enforcement agencies, regulatory bodies, and cryptocurrency companies will be key to addressing these complex, ever-changing, and interconnected threats. Although the proportion of illegal transactions in legitimate cryptocurrency transaction volume remains limited, maintaining the integrity and security of the cryptocurrency ecosystem has never been more important.

İlgili Sorular

QWhat was the total value of illicit cryptocurrency transactions in 2025, and what was the primary driver of this growth?

AThe total value of illicit cryptocurrency transactions in 2025 reached at least $154 billion, representing a 162% year-over-year increase. This growth was primarily driven by a massive 694% surge in transaction volume from sanctioned entities.

QWhich asset has become the dominant currency for illicit transactions and what percentage of the total illicit volume does it represent?

AStablecoins have become the dominant asset for illicit transactions, currently accounting for 84% of the total illicit transaction volume.

QWhat significant role did nation-states play in the 2025 crypto crime landscape according to the article?

ANation-states significantly escalated their involvement in 2025. Russia launched the ruble-backed A7A5 token, which processed over $93.3 billion in volume to circumvent sanctions. North Korean hacking groups stole a record $2 billion, and Chinese money laundering networks emerged as dominant, sophisticated players in the illicit ecosystem.

QWhat new concerning trend connects cryptocurrency to real-world physical violence?

AA concerning trend is the rise in violent coercion attacks, where criminals use physical violence to force victims to transfer their cryptocurrency assets. These attacks often occur during periods of peak cryptocurrency prices.

QDespite the growth in illicit activity, how does its scale compare to the overall cryptocurrency economy?

ADespite the significant growth, illicit transactions still represent less than 1% of the total traceable cryptocurrency transaction volume, meaning the vast majority of cryptocurrency market activity remains legitimate.

İlgili Okumalar

Two Legends Lost in Three Days: Is Google's AI Talent Dam Cracking?

In three days, Google lost two AI legends. On June 18, Noam Shazeer, co-author of the seminal "Attention is All You Need" paper and Gemini co-lead, left for OpenAI. Just 48 hours later, John Jumper, 2024 Nobel laureate and AlphaFold lead, departed DeepMind for Anthropic. This follows Andrej Karpathy joining Anthropic in May. These moves highlight a structural trend: top AI talent is concentrating at mission-driven, pre-IPO firms like OpenAI and Anthropic, while Google becomes a primary source. The exodus stems from a core mission mismatch. Google's ad-centric model often subordinates AI research to product and revenue goals, creating friction for pioneers like Shazeer, who returned in 2024 only to leave again. In contrast, OpenAI and Anthropic offer singular focus on pushing AI boundaries, whether towards AGI or safety-aligned models, which deeply appeals to top researchers like Jumper. Financial incentives amplify the pull. With both OpenAI and Anthropic nearing IPO, employees stand to gain immensely from equity, an upside Google's mature stock cannot match. Furthermore, the 2023 merger of Google Brain and DeepMind, intended to consolidate strength, has instead created cultural tension and slowed the path from research to product, as evidenced by Gemini's pace. This talent redistribution is reshaping the AI landscape. While Google retains vast data and compute resources, its true crisis is the quiet, continuous loss of the people who define the field's future. The real moat in AI is not infrastructure, but the concentration of brilliant minds—a battle Google is currently losing.

marsbit53 dk önce

Two Legends Lost in Three Days: Is Google's AI Talent Dam Cracking?

marsbit53 dk önce

Behind the AI Report Card, Lies a Chinese 'Exam Setter'

Beyond the familiar performance charts like MMLU-Pro and MMMU, which major AI models strive to ace, stands a key "examiner": Chinese-Canadian researcher Wenhu Chen. An assistant professor at the University of Waterloo and founder of TIGERLab, Chen addresses the crucial need for more rigorous AI evaluation. As models like GPT-4 began scoring near-perfect results on older benchmarks like MMLU, it became difficult to distinguish their true capabilities. In response, Chen introduced MMLU-Pro in 2024, featuring harder, more reasoning-focused questions with more answer choices, successfully reintroducing meaningful performance gaps. His work extends to multi-modal evaluation with MMMU and its enhanced version, MMMU-Pro. These benchmarks test a model's ability to understand and reason with complex information from images, charts, and text across diverse academic subjects, exposing the significant challenges even top models face in genuine comprehension. Chen's background in complex QA, table reasoning, and his experience at Google DeepMind on projects like Gemini inform his approach. He understands that effective benchmarks must anticipate how models might "cheat" by memorizing data or avoiding visual analysis. His lab also actively researches video understanding and generation models (e.g., UniVideo, Vamba), ensuring his evaluation work is grounded in practical model-building challenges. Now at Meta's Super Intelligence Lab, Chen continues his focus on multi-modal data and evaluation, representing the deep yet often unseen contributions of Chinese talent in shaping the fundamental tools of the AI industry.

marsbit1 saat önce

Behind the AI Report Card, Lies a Chinese 'Exam Setter'

marsbit1 saat önce

Alliance Co-founder's Letter to Entrepreneurs: Written at the Moment Cursor Sold for $600 Billion

Alliance Co-founder's Letter to Entrepreneurs: On Cursor's $60 Billion Sale Many aspiring founders see massive exits like Cursor's $60B sale and wonder why they can't achieve the same, often concluding opportunities are exhausted. But great companies aren't built in obvious, crowded spaces. Cursor, like Stripe, Figma, and Shopify before it, started with a non-consensus belief about the future. Before ChatGPT, they believed AI would transform knowledge work. They focused on a genuinely exciting domain, became their own customer, and obsessed over power users. Their journey involved years of "glass-chewing" effort before the market was ready. The pattern is consistent: identify a long-term technological shift, find a missed entry point, and execute for years before the trend becomes obvious. First-generation products (PayPal, Adobe, Amazon) prove a market exists. Second-generation winners (Stripe, Figma, Shopify) rebuild that market around new insights, technology, or changing customer behaviors. Founders must identify their phase in the cycle. Early entrants like Coinbase or Cursor focus on making new technology usable for power users. Later entrants find the "yin" to the established "yang"—the blind spots incumbents miss as they grow distant from individual users. The key is deep market immersion. Use every product in your space. Talk to users. Build an audience. Stop looking for ideas and start *seeing* them everywhere. Then, choose one. The idea must offer a 10x improvement or solve a "hair-on-fire" pain point—something severe enough that users are already crafting workarounds. When building, avoid feature bloat. Ask: why would someone switch? Great startups rarely force new behaviors; they improve familiar workflows with drastically lower friction (e.g., Cursor forked VS Code instead of creating a new editor). Distribution is the underestimated moat. Before product-market fit, achieve distribution-market fit. How do customers discover new tools? Founders like those at Airbnb, Stripe, and Cursor did unscalable, manual work to recruit early users. The final, unteachable ingredient is resilience. Cursor built for years pre-market, faced rejection, and persisted. So did Airbnb, Nvidia, and Rain (which launched post-FTX collapse). The lesson isn't that these founders were smarter, but that they stayed in the game long enough for their insights to compound. Framework: Spot technological cycles. Cultivate unique insight. Obsess over your market. Talk to customers. Find a hair-on-fire problem. Build the simplest wedge. Win your distribution channel. Above all, don't quit when it gets hard. Most people won't do these things consistently. The few who do build the next generation of great companies. Go build.

marsbit1 saat önce

Alliance Co-founder's Letter to Entrepreneurs: Written at the Moment Cursor Sold for $600 Billion

marsbit1 saat önce

Weekly Editor's Picks (0613-0619)

Weekly Editor's Picks (0613-0619): Market Insights & Analysis This weekly digest curates in-depth analysis often lost in the information flow, focusing on key insights across macro trends, investment, and technology. **Macro & Geopolitics:** With the Strait of Hormuz reopening and military conflict shifting to negotiation, markets are pivoting from "war shock" to "supply restoration." Trades include shorting crude risk premiums, longing airlines/tourism, Asian energy importers, and bond duration, while shorting inflation expectations. LNG, fertilizer, and chemical chains are also being repriced. **Investment & VC:** Ray Dalio advises against betting on concentrated AI giants dominating indices, advocating for diversified portfolios of high-quality, low-correlation assets instead. Analysis covers the 4-year crypto cycle, predicting the core surviving product by 2029 will be asset trading markets. Current BTC metrics suggest a potential bottoming zone, presenting a patient accumulation window. SpaceX's high-profile IPO at a $2.1T valuation faces scrutiny over fundamentals, with key watchpoints being its likely inclusion in the Nasdaq index and Q2 earnings. Concerns are raised about potential "gamma squeeze" and systemic risks if its narrative-driven valuation gets amplified by passive index funds. Robinhood (HOOD) is noted for breaking its high correlation with crypto, bolstered by its stock trading and new underwriting business. **Web3 & AI:** A warning highlights ~$1.8T in off-balance-sheet AI infrastructure commitments (purchase commitments, leases) as a potential systemic risk if AI monetization lags. AI models are being used for World Cup predictions, adding a new layer for betting markets. A cost breakdown of a $20 AI subscription reveals the supply chain from model companies to cloud, GPUs, and power. **Prediction Markets:** The emergence of prediction market "concept stocks" is noted, with Robinhood developing its own platform, Rothera, signaling a shift from market competition to a "channel war" for user access. **CeFi & DeFi:** The SpaceX IPO tested perpetual contract mechanisms for pre-IPO assets, highlighting challenges in handling corporate actions like stock splits on-chain. The de-pegging of STRC (Strategy's preferred share) to ~$89 reflects market concerns over MicroStrategy's capital structure and BTC-backed leverage model. BlackRock's covered-call Bitcoin ETF (BITA) offers yield but caps upside, appealing to yield-seeking institutions. **Ethereum:** An opinion piece argues Ethereum's core strength is its vast developer community and composability, solidifying its role as the default operating system for the financial internet. **Weekly Hot Topics:** Include the US-Iran deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Fed's hawkish hold, Anthropic restricting model access, SpaceX acquiring Cursor, and a humorous stock surge for "Liuliumei" due to its "LLM" ticker.

marsbit1 saat önce

Weekly Editor's Picks (0613-0619)

marsbit1 saat önce

Alliance's Co-Founder's Letter to Entrepreneurs: Written on the Occasion of Cursor's $60 Billion Sale

In this letter to entrepreneurs, Alliance reflects on the success of Cursor's $60 billion sale to Elon Musk, using it as a case study to counter the misconception that opportunities in crowded fields like AI or crypto are exhausted. The piece argues that great companies like Cursor, Stripe, Figma, and Shopify are not built by geniuses with perfect ideas, but by founders who start with a non-consensus belief about the future and build for years before that future becomes obvious to everyone. They identify long-term shifts, find overlooked entry points, and execute relentlessly. The framework for success involves: 1. **Identifying your place in the technology cycle**: Early-stage opportunities focus on making new tech usable for power users (e.g., Coinbase, Cursor). Later-stage opportunities involve finding the "yin" to an existing "yang"—the blind spots of first-generation players (e.g., Stripe vs. PayPal, Figma vs. Adobe). 2. **Cultivating unique insights**: Immerse yourself deeply in the market. Use every product, talk to users, and build an audience. Insights will emerge naturally from deep engagement. 3. **Finding a "hair-on-fire" problem**: Look for a 10x improvement or a severe, urgent pain point. The strongest signal is people already building clumsy workarounds. 4. **Building a focused MVP**: Don't just add features because you can. Ask why users would abandon their current tool for yours. The best startups rarely force new behaviors; they improve familiar workflows with drastically lower friction. 5. **Winning a distribution channel**: Distribution is often the moat. Before product-market fit, achieve channel-market fit. Find where your customers are and build an engine to reach them, even through unscalable, manual efforts initially. 6. **Persistence**: The final, unteachable ingredient is resilience. Success stories like Cursor, Airbnb, and Nvidia involved years of grinding, rejection, and perseverance when the path forward seemed unclear. The conclusion is that there is no secret. Most people fail to consistently execute these steps over the long term. The few who do build the companies that define the next era. The world is yours to create.

链捕手1 saat önce

Alliance's Co-Founder's Letter to Entrepreneurs: Written on the Occasion of Cursor's $60 Billion Sale

链捕手1 saat önce

İşlemler

Spot
Futures
活动图片