Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
U.S. Stocks: Day Four of War, Market Confidence Completely Collapses
Tuesday saw another dismal trading day on Wall Street.
The Dow plummeted 403 points (-0.83%) to close at 48,501 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.94% to 6,816 points, and the Nasdaq fell 1.02% to close at 22,516 points.
But the numbers don't capture the day's heart-stopping action.
Intraday, the Dow once plunged 1200 points (-2.6%), the S&P 500 fell as much as 2.5%, and the Nasdaq plummeted 2.7%, marking the most intense intraday sell-off since early February.
The market was like a startled bird; any slight disturbance triggered massive selling. The U.S.-Iran war entered its fourth day, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged another 8%, and investor panic reached new heights.
The energy market is completely out of control.
WTI crude oil surged $5.82 (+8.2%) to $77.05/barrel, Brent crude skyrocketed $6.09 (+7.8%) to $83.83/barrel.
This is the largest single-day gain since February. More frighteningly, oil prices have risen over $17 from last Friday's $66, a gain of nearly 26%.
The Strait of Hormuz—the chokepoint for 20% of global oil supply—remains effectively closed. Iran has blockaded the strait and begun attacking energy infrastructure across the Middle East, including oil fields and tankers in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Tuesday afternoon, Trump posted a statement on Truth Social: "The United States will ensure the free flow of energy to the world, no matter what." He promised the U.S. Navy would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
This statement briefly eased market panic—oil prices retreated from their intraday highs, and stocks narrowed their losses from 2.5% to around 1%.
But the problem remains severe: If oil prices stay above $80, inflation will spiral out of control again, and Fed rate cut expectations will be completely dashed.
Tuesday was a real "bloodbath": All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 closed lower; there was no safe haven.
Hardest hit:
- Materials sector plunged 4.5%, its largest single-day drop since April 2025. Lithium giant Albemarle plunged 7%; copper miner Freeport-McMoRan fell 4%; gold miner Newmont fell 7%.
- Industrials sector fell over 2%. Caterpillar fell 3.98%, Boeing fell 2.52%.
- Healthcare fell over 2%, Consumer Staples fell over 2%.
The only bright spots: Target rose 3%, Q4 earnings beat expectations, CEO said "strong sales rebound in February"; Best Buy surged 9%, despite unexpected holiday sales decline, Q1 guidance was optimistic.
Tech stocks continued to crumble: Nvidia fell 1.3%; Tesla fell 2.7%; software stocks continued to be slaughtered, MongoDB downgraded to Neutral by Baird due to AI threat, down over 40% year-to-date.
The VIX volatility index surged to 25.16 on Tuesday, hitting a new high since last year November.
What does this number mean? The market expects very volatile stock movements in the next 30 days. A VIX above 25 is usually seen as the "panic" zone, above 30 is "extreme panic".
More frighteningly, market expectations for the war's duration are worsening. Tuesday morning, Trump warned: "This conflict could last 4 weeks."
4 weeks? That's much longer than the market's initial expectation of "a quick resolution in days". If the war really lasts a month, oil breaks above $100/barrel, inflation spirals completely out of control, the Fed might not only not cut rates but could be forced to hike—that would be doomsday for stocks.
Gold Plunges 4%: Dollar Strengthens, Safe-Haven Trade Reverses
Unexpectedly, gold plummeted on Tuesday.
Spot gold fell 3.7% in a single day, dropping from a high of $5400 to about $5,148, its largest drop since the $600 single-day plunge on January 30.
Silver fared worse, plunging 6%. Platinum fell 10%, Palladium fell 7%.
Why did safe-haven assets fall instead? Because the dollar strengthened.
The U.S. Dollar Index surged on Tuesday, breaking through the 100 mark—the first time since last May. When the dollar strengthens, dollar-denominated gold and silver fall.
Investors are flocking to the dollar—the world's ultimate safe-haven asset. In comparison, traditional safe havens like gold and silver became "liquidity sacrifices": when the market panics, investors sell anything they can to raise cash.
Cryptocurrency: Showing Resilience in the Bloodbath
This is today's most surprising story.
Against the backdrop of tumbling U.S. stocks, crashing gold, and a soaring VIX, Bitcoin actually showed remarkable resilience.
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin edged up to about $69,413 on Tuesday, a 24-hour gain of +5.8%, completely reversing the暴跌走势 of U.S. stocks.
Ethereum's performance was equally strong, stabilizing around $2000. Mainstream coins like Solana and Cardano performed steadily.
The total global cryptocurrency market cap stabilized at $2.41 trillion, with a slight 0.9% gain in 24 hours. 24-hour trading volume reached $123 billion, showing ample market liquidity.
Bitcoin's market cap reached $1.36 trillion, with a market dominance of 56.7%. This indicates that during market turmoil, funds are concentrating towards Bitcoin, this "crypto safe haven".
Why is cryptocurrency so resilient?
This performance breaks traditional perceptions. In the past, whenever geopolitical crises erupted, cryptocurrencies always fell sharply along with tech stocks, as they were both considered "high-risk assets".
But this time is different. Several key factors are supporting the crypto market:
The "digital gold" narrative is resurging.
Gold's plunge反而 makes Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative more credible.
The problem with traditional gold is: It is still affected by the strength of the dollar. When the dollar strengthens, gold inevitably falls because it is priced in dollars.
But Bitcoin is different. Bitcoin is a true "borderless currency"—it does not rely on any single fiat currency for pricing, nor does it automatically depreciate because the dollar strengthens.
Against the backdrop of Middle East turmoil and the accelerating de-dollarization narrative, this characteristic of Bitcoin is being re-recognized.
Long-term holders stop selling.
On-chain data shows that selling by long-term holders (wallets holding for 365+ days) has basically ended.
In early February, the 30-day rolling net selling volume by long-term holders reached 243,737 BTC. But by March 1, this number had plummeted to 31,967 BTC, a drop of 87%.
What does this mean? Panic selling is over, the market is bottoming.
Miner selling pressure subsides.
Bitcoin miner selling pressure has also eased significantly. On February 8, miner net selling reached a peak of 4,718 BTC, but by March 1 it had fallen to 837 BTC.
Although negative hash rate growth (some miners shutting down) is concerning, analysts point out: Miners are not capitulating, but are strategically diversifying their配置.
Whales quietly accumulate.
Super whales holding 100k - 1M BTC accumulated about 14k BTC on Feb 19-20, and have not sold so far.
Smaller whales holding 1k-10k BTC began accumulating from February 25, with holdings increasing from 4.22M BTC to 4.23M BTC.
Smart money is buying against the trend.
Amid the pervasive pessimism, Fundstrat's star analyst Tom Lee gave an optimistic prediction.
Wednesday, Lee said on CNBC: "The worst of the selling will happen this week. I expect March to be an 'up month' for stocks."
Lee added on social media: "We understand war headlines make investors nervous, but we expect stocks to rise in March: led by MAG7, software stocks, and crypto (BTC, ETH)."
Lee's logic: Cryptocurrencies and tech stocks have already experienced significant pullbacks and might be in the "final bottoming phase," which will lead the "April rally".
Historical data supports Lee's view. Wells Fargo data shows: The S&P 500 typically rebounds within two weeks after major geopolitical conflicts, averaging a 1% gain three months later.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: $65,000 is Key
Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating in the $65,000-$68,000 range.
Key Support Levels:
- $65,000: A break below could trigger a selling wave, testing $64,600 or even $64,000.
- $63,000: Absolute bottom line, a break below targets $60,000.
Key Resistance Levels:
- $68,000: Tested multiple times, a break above could trigger FOMO.
- $70,000: Psychological barrier, a break above targets $74,000-$75,000.
Technical analyst Michael Van De Poppe said: "Bitcoin must hold $65,000. Once it holds, attacking above $70,000 is just a matter of time."
Key Question: How Long Will the War Last?
The market now only cares about one question: How long will the war last?
Trump warned on Tuesday: "This conflict could last 4 weeks."
If it really is 4 weeks: Oil will break above $100, inflation goes失控, the Fed might be forced to hike rates, stocks face even greater暴跌.
If it's only a few days: Oil prices retreat, inflation eases, stocks rebound, cryptocurrencies might follow higher.
Fundstrat's Tom Lee is betting on the latter: "The worst selling will end this week, March will be an up month."
Legendary investor Steve Eisman said last week: "I wouldn't change a single trade because of this conflict."
But the market clearly doesn't think so.
The soaring VIX, the plunging materials sector, the crashing gold—these are the market screaming: "We are scared!"
The only exception is cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin, against the backdrop of tumbling stocks and crashing gold, actually showed surprising resilience. This is a signal: The crypto market is maturing, evolving from a "pure risk asset" to an "alternative safe-haven asset".
Fear index 10/10, long-term holders stop selling, whales quietly accumulate, all historical data points to the same conclusion: bottoming is underway.
As for whether it can rebound above $70,000 in March?
The answer will be revealed in the coming days.
