Macro Black Swans and On-Chain Selling Pressure: A Guide to Navigating Crypto Market Risks Next Week

marsbit2026-01-26 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-01-26 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Hotcoin Research's Market Analysis: Crypto Market Downturn and Key Events (Jan 26 - Feb 1, 2026) The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant volatility, with a market cap of $3.1T. BTC (-6.87% weekly and ETH (-11.6%) led a broad downturn, though assets like AXS saw gains (+122.1%). Key metrics show a neutral RSI (44.24) and a Fear & Greed Index of 25. Core trading ranges are identified: BTC ($88K-$92K), ETH ($2.9K-$3.3K), and SOL ($124-$137). Macro events are heavily influencing sentiment. A market "flash crash" occurred on Jan 19. US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.32B, with GBTC outflows totaling $25.539B to date. US economic data, including lower-than-expected unemployment claims, is being watched closely. The probability of a Fed rate cut in January remains low at 5.7%. Political statements from Donald Trump have caused immediate market reactions. Looking ahead, the report highlights several key events for the coming week: * **Macro Events:** The US Fed and Canadian central bank interest rate decisions on Jan 29 and Jan 28, respectively. * **Token Unlocks:** Significant unlocks are scheduled for JUP ($10.53M), TREE ($8.5M), OP ($9.88M), and SUI ($65.29M), which could create selling pressure. * **Project Updates:** The closure of the Defiance Ethereum ETF (Jan 26), the Infinex TGE (Jan 30), and the shutdown of Ready Player Me after its acquisition by Netflix (Jan 31). * **Regulation:** New South Korean restrictions on unregistered overseas cr...

Author: Hotcoin Research

Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.1 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.2%, at $1.83 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $308.1 billion, decreasing by 0.75% in the last 7 days, with USDT making up 60.57%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined while a few rose, including: BTC down 6.87% in 7 days, ETH down 11.6% in 7 days, SOL down 11.2% in 7 days, AXS up 122.1% in 7 days, ZRO up 34.8% in 7 days.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.32 billion; US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $600 million.

Market Forecast (January 26 - February 1):

The current RSI index is 44.24 (neutral zone), the Fear & Greed Index is 25 (re-entering fear zone), and the Altcoin Season Index is 39 (neutral, higher than last week).

BTC core range: $88,000-92,000, short-term bias is towards high volatility.

ETH core range: $2,900-3,300, awaiting directional selection.

SOL core range: $124-137, technical signals are mixed, waiting for new catalysts. Solana's "Alpenglow" network upgrade, expected in Q1 2026, could be a significant price catalyst.

The cryptocurrency market is currently highly volatile, with short-term trends very sensitive to news. Pay special attention to Trump's foreign tariff policies and signals from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as these will impact the overall risk appetite of the crypto market.

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week's Major Events

On January 19, the cryptocurrency market experienced a "flash crash" on Monday morning, with Bitcoin dropping up to 3.79% in nearly an hour, falling from around $95,500 to $91,900, now recovering to around $92,800;
On January 18, Sonic stated, "As planned, through fully permissionless smart contract execution, successfully burned 16,027,929.41 S tokens, which were unclaimed airdrop allocations from Season 1;";
On January 18, according to Defillama data, Meteora's revenue in the past 24 hours reached $1.33 million, surpassing Pump.fun's $1.16 million revenue in the past 24 hours, second only to Tether ($16.45 million) and Circle ($6.60 million);
On January 19, according to an update on Paradex's official status page, its blockchain status resumed operation at 20:13;
On January 20, Japan's 40-year government bond yield rose 5.5 basis points to 4% on Tuesday, hitting its highest level since its issuance in 2007, and marking the first time in over thirty years that a Japanese government bond yield has reached this level. This signifies the first time since December 1995 (when the 20-year yield touched 4%) that Japanese government bond yields have climbed above the 4% mark;
On January 21, according to Bitget market data, spot gold surged 10% in 20 days, breaking through $4,800/ounce for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of over $480;
On January 21, the crypto wallet Rainbow announced that the RNBW token airdrop snapshot will take place on January 26 at 16:20 EST, with the official airdrop occurring on February 5;
On January 22, Trump stated he would not impose tariffs on Greenland, causing cryptocurrencies to rebound briefly in response;
On January 22, North Korean hackers returned, attacking over 3,100 IP addresses using fake job interviews;
On January 23, according to the Financial Times, Musk's rocket company SpaceX is seeking Wall Street investment banks for a "super" IPO, expected to be one of the largest IPOs in history;
On January 22, cryptocurrency custody service provider BitGo (BTGO.US) officially listed on the NYSE, marking the first crypto IPO of the year.

Macroeconomics

On January 22, US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17 were 200,000, against an expectation of 210,000, with the previous figure revised from 198,000 to 199,000;
On January 23 at 23:00, the US released the January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 56.4, against a forecast of 54, previous 54.
On January 23, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in January is 5.7%, and the probability of maintaining rates is 94.3%.

ETFs

According to statistics, during January 19-24, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.32 billion; as of January 24, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen a total outflow of $25.539 billion and currently holds $14.414 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $69.721 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $120.315 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $600 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Industry Conferences

Consensus Hong Kong 2026 will be held in Hong Kong, China, from February 11 to 12;
ETHDenver 2026 will be held in Denver, USA, from February 17 to 21;
EthCC 9 will be held in Cannes, France, from March 30 to April 2, 2026. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of Europe's largest and longest-running annual Ethereum gatherings, focusing on technology and community development.

Project Developments

Defiance will close its Nasdaq-listed Ethereum ETF: Defiance Leveraged Long and Yield Ethereum ETF (ETHI) on January 26;
The first batch unlock claim deadline for Base network Perp DEX protocol RollX is January 26. The genesis airdrop totals 180 million tokens, eligible addresses include Trade & LP points holders and contributors from activities like Binance Wallet, Bitlayer, Galxe, etc.;
The Aster Phase 4 airdrop claim window opens on January 28, 2026;
The TON ecosystem project Catizen game Pixel Ninja will be taken offline on January 29, 2026;
The cross-chain aggregation DeFi platform Infinex TGE is scheduled for January 30. The public sale had 868 participants, raising 7.214 million USDC, allocating approximately $5 million (5% of INX supply), and refunding about $2.21 million;
Coinbase suspends services in Argentina. Starting January 31, 2026, Coinbase will no longer support buying or selling USDC with Argentine Pesos, but deposit and withdrawal functions will remain unaffected;
The metaverse avatar platform Ready Player Me, acquired by Netflix, will cease services on January 31, 2026, with the entire team joining Netflix.

Important Events

South Korea's FIU will restrict unregistered overseas crypto exchanges and wallets from listing on Google Play starting January 28. Application requirements include an anti-money laundering (AML) system and an Information Security Management System (ISMS) certification from the Korea Internet & Security Agency (KISA). Apps not complying with the policy will be blocked in South Korea from January 28, preventing new installations, and existing users may face usability issues due to inability to update;
On January 28 at 22:45, Canada will announce its bank rate decision for January 28;
On January 29 at 03:00, the US will announce the Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) for January 28;
On January 29 at 21:30, the US will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 (in thousands).

Token Unlocks

Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 53.45 million tokens on January 28, worth approximately $10.53 million, 1.7% of circulating supply;
TreeHouse (TREE) will unlock 85.85 million tokens on January 29, worth approximately $8.5 million, 39.41% of circulating supply;
Zora (ZORA) will unlock 168 million tokens on January 30, worth approximately $5.23 million, 4% of circulating supply;
Kamino (KMNO) will unlock 228 million tokens on January 30, worth approximately $11.22 million, 3.68% of circulating supply;
Optimism (OP) will unlock 31.34 million tokens on January 31, worth approximately $9.88 million, 1.62% of circulating supply;
Sui (SUI) will unlock 43.52 million tokens on February 1, worth approximately $65.29 million, 1.15% of circulating supply;
EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.82 million tokens on February 1, worth approximately $12.53 million, 8.88% of circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tool. We dissect market trends through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports"; with our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (dual screening by AI + experts), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial costs. Every week, our researchers also engage with you face-to-face through live streams, interpreting hot topics and forecasting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.

İlgili Sorular

QWhat is the current total market capitalization and Bitcoin's dominance, according to the article?

AThe current total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.1 trillion, with Bitcoin's dominance at 59.2%, equivalent to $1.83 trillion.

QWhat were the 7-day price performances of BTC, ETH, and SOL mentioned in the report?

ABTC had a 7-day decline of 6.87%, ETH fell 11.6%, and SOL decreased by 11.2%.

QWhat significant macroeconomic event is scheduled for January 29th that could impact the market?

AThe US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (upper limit) is scheduled for 03:00 on January 29th.

QWhich token has the largest value unlock scheduled for the upcoming week, and what is its value?

ASui (SUI) has the largest value unlock scheduled for February 1st, with 43.52 million tokens worth approximately $65.29 million.

QAccording to the article, what two external factors should traders pay special attention to as they highly influence short-term market sentiment?

ATraders should pay special attention to former President Trump's foreign tariff policies and signals regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as they significantly impact the crypto market's risk appetite.

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