Legendary Investor: 'Absolutely No Way' for Walsh to Cut Rates, AI Bull Market Could Last 1-2 More Years

marsbit2026-05-08 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-05-08 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones says incoming Fed Chair Wash is highly unlikely to cut rates and could even consider raising them, citing FOMC pushback and persistent inflation. He remains bullish on the AI-driven stock market rally, comparing it to historical tech revolutions like Microsoft's founding (1981) and the commercialization of the internet (1995). Jones believes this AI bull market is only about 50-60% complete and could continue for another 1-2 years, though he warns the current period resembles the late stages of the 1999 dot-com bubble, setting the stage for a potential sharp correction if valuations become extreme. He also cautions that AI requires eventual government regulation to mitigate long-term risks.

Source: Jinshi Data

Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones made a significant statement in an interview with CNBC on Thursday, predicting that incoming Fed Chair Walsh is not only unlikely to cut interest rates but may even consider raising them. Meanwhile, he remains optimistic about the AI-driven U.S. stock bull market, believing it is in a middle stage with another 1-2 years of gains possible, though it will ultimately face the risk of a sharp correction.

No Hope for Walsh to Cut Rates, Possibly Even a Rate Hike

Regarding the policy direction of the incoming Federal Reserve Chair Walsh, Jones stated unequivocally: "Will he cut rates? Absolutely no way."

Walsh has previously expressed a dovish leaning, with the Fed's benchmark rate currently held in the 3.5%-3.75% range, unchanged since last December. However, his inclination towards easing will face significant resistance from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – the most recent meeting saw the highest number of dissenting votes in nearly 34 years, with most regional Fed presidents opposing the statement's hint at possible further easing "after three rate cuts by the end of 2025."

Jones believes that even a rate hike could be justified in the current environment: "I would consider raising rates, of course depending on the data, but I would definitely consider it. And I think he will be constrained before the midterm elections."

The current policy backdrop is complex: the labor market is stabilizing, but inflation remains persistently above the Fed's 2% target due to the war in Iran and Trump's tariff policies. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, futures traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged this year, with probabilities for cuts or hikes being roughly equal and both relatively low.

Drawing Parallels to Historical Tech Waves, AI Bull Market Has 1-2 Years Left

Regarding the stock market, Jones is firmly bullish on the AI-driven rally, revealing he has recently increased his holdings in related stocks. He compares the current AI development to two major historical tech revolutions: "I think the emergence of the Claude large model in January this year is equivalent to the founding of Microsoft in 1981; and the current stage of AI proliferation is similar to the release of Windows 95 in 1995 and the acceleration of internet commercialization."

Jones noted that both those technological revolutions ushered in sustained "productivity miracles" lasting 4 to 5.5 years, driving long-term stock market gains. "This current AI bull market has probably run about 50% to 60% of its course. If I had to pick a timeframe, it could last another 1 to 2 years."

In recent years, U.S. stocks have continued hitting new highs driven by AI transformation expectations, with mega-cap tech stocks related to AI infrastructure leading the gains. Chips, cloud computing, and generative AI companies have become magnets for capital, pushing the S&P 500 index to repeated all-time highs.

Analogous to Pre-1999 Dot-com Bubble, U.S. Stocks May Face Sharp Correction Risk in Future

Despite his bullish short-term outlook, Jones draws a parallel between the current market and the prelude to the 1999 dot-com bubble – about a year before it peaked in early 2000. He warns: "Imagine the market going up another 40%, the total market cap to GDP ratio could reach 300% to 350%, and at that point, there will inevitably be a breathtakingly sharp correction."

As a macro trader, Jones said he employs a basket allocation strategy, while also emphasizing: "I always like to look for historical precedents, and this is a very unique period."

Additionally, he issued a warning about the long-term risks of AI: "The government will eventually need to step in with regulation. If left unchecked, artificial intelligence could pose a danger to humanity."

Jones gained fame for successfully predicting and profiting from the 1987 "Black Monday" stock market crash. He is also a co-founder of the non-profit organization Just Capital, which rates U.S. public companies based on social and environmental metrics.

İlgili Sorular

QAccording to Paul Tudor Jones, what is the likelihood of the incoming Fed Chair Walsh cutting interest rates?

AAccording to Paul Tudor Jones, the likelihood of the incoming Fed Chair Walsh cutting interest rates is absolutely none. Jones stated: 'He will cut rates? Absolutely not.'

QWhat historical technological revolutions does Paul Tudor Jones compare the current AI boom to?

APaul Tudor Jones compares the current AI boom to two historical technological revolutions. He compares the emergence of Claude's large model in January of this year to Microsoft's founding in 1981. He then compares the current stage of AI proliferation to the period following the release of Windows 95 in 1995, which accelerated the commercialization of the internet.

QHow much longer does Paul Tudor Jones believe the AI-driven bull market can continue?

APaul Tudor Jones believes the AI-driven bull market can continue for another 1 to 2 years. He estimates the current bull run is about 50% to 60% complete.

QWhat market period does Jones use as a cautionary analogy for the potential end of the current AI bull market?

AJones uses the period preceding the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble as a cautionary analogy. He warns that the market could resemble 1999, roughly a year before the peak in early 2000, and ultimately face a sharp correction.

QWhat long-term risk associated with AI does Paul Tudor Jones highlight?

APaul Tudor Jones highlights the long-term risk that artificial intelligence could pose a danger to humanity if left unchecked. He warns that 'government will ultimately have to step in to regulate it, and if left unchecked, artificial intelligence could be dangerous to humans.'

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