Original|Odaily Planet Daily(@OdailyChina)
Author|Wenser(@wenser 2010)
The scale, trading volume, and other data of the prediction markets continue to grow rapidly. The pre-IPO markets of leading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have also attracted significant market attention and liquidity. According to data from the PreStocks platform, Kalshi's pre-IPO stock price has surged 21.7% in the past 30 days, far exceeding the gains of mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH over the past month.
Before the IPO cake is served, the Pre-IPO sector might be the battleground suitable for more people to participate in early. This article by Odaily Planet Daily will analyze whether the pre-IPO market for prediction market stocks is worth a heavy bet from the perspectives of industry track, platform data, and capital valuation.
Behind the Judgment "Prediction Markets Still Have 100x Upside Potential": Total Trading Volume Exceeds $50 Billion in 2025
Last August, 1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino boldly claimed that "prediction market trading volume will grow 100 times."
At that time, the "twin stars of prediction markets," Polymarket and Kalshi, had not yet secured financing above the $1 billion level, their valuations were far from the $10 billion scale, and the overall trading volume of prediction markets in July was less than $2 billion, nearly halved compared to the historical high of over $4 billion in October 2024. The judgment of 100x growth space seemed like nonsense.
But soon, in October 2025, Polymarket officially announced a $20 billion investment from ICE Group, the parent company of the NYSE, skyrocketing its valuation to $9 billion, and later sought a new round of financing at $12-15 billion; Kalshi completed 2 rounds of financing between October and December, with the latest round reaching $1 billion, surging its valuation to $11 billion, led by Paradigm, with participation from Sequoia, a16z, Meritech Capital, IVP, ARK Invest, Anthos Capital, CapitalG, and Y Combinator.
Behind the capital's fervent pursuit is the rapid and vigorous development of prediction markets.
According to data from our previously published article "2025 Prediction Market Review: Total Trading Volume Exceeds $50 Billion, Dual Giants Account for Over 97.5% Market Share":
- In September 2025, the combined trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket reached $1.44 billion;
- In October 2025, prediction market trading volume reached $8.7 billion, with Kalshi leading and Polymarket following;
- In November 2025, the combined trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket approached $10 billion, with Kalshi's trading volume reaching $5.8 billion, a 32% month-on-month increase; Polymarket's trading volume reached $3.74 billion, a 23.8% month-on-month increase.
- In December 2025, analyst Patrick Scott stated that prediction market trading volume exceeded $13 billion in November 2025, more than three times the trading volume during the peak of the 2024 election.
Thus, in just a few months, the overall monthly trading volume of prediction markets increased about 6 times. From this perspective, 100x growth is not out of reach.
After all, 100 times $2 billion is only $200 billion. Compared to the total trading volume of over $50 billion in prediction markets in 2025, it only requires a 4x growth. Behind such rapid growth is the frenzied advancement of Kalshi, this US-compliant prediction market platform.
Kalshi Aims to Become the "Leading Stock in Prediction Markets": 2025 Trading Volume Nearly $24 Billion, January Volume Expected to Reach $9 Billion
The emphasis on Kalshi's "compliant status in the US market" is because, based on its various licenses and compliance preparations, the door to an IPO is easier for Kalshi to push open. Furthermore, as a pioneer in the prediction market platform founded in 2018 (Odaily Planet Daily Note: The platform officially launched in July 2021, slightly later than Polymarket), Kalshi's business growth in recent years has been extremely impressive.
Kalshi's 2025 Report Card: Annual Trading Volume $23.8 Billion, Number of Trades Reached 97 Million
KalshiData previously stated that in 2025, all of Kalshi's metrics achieved record growth.
- In terms of nominal trading volume, the annual total reached $23.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1108%, approximately 12.1 times. December set a monthly historical high of $6.38 billion, the 4th week of December set a weekly historical high of $1.7 billion, and December 21st set a daily historical high of $381.7 million.
- In terms of the number of trades, the annual total reached 97 million, a year-on-year increase of 1680%, approximately 17.8 times. December saw 27.67 million trades, the 4th week of December had 7.6 million trades, and December 21st had 1.5 million trades, all setting historical highs.
As we entered 2026, the growth of Kalshi's business data can be described as terrifying.
Kalshi's Business Surge: January 2026 Nominal Trading Volume Expected to Exceed $9 Billion
On December 16, 2025, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that with the launch of the Combo feature, the platform's single-day trading volume hit a historical high of $340 million;
On January 12, 2026, the single-day trading volume of prediction markets grew to approximately $702 million, setting a new historical high; among which, Kalshi accounted for approximately $465 million, about two-thirds of the total, while Polymarket and Opinion collectively contributed about $100 million in trading volume.
On January 26, KalshiData stated that as of January 23, Kalshi's monthly nominal trading volume was approximately $6.7 billion, with a daily average trading volume of approximately $293 million. If the current pace is maintained, Kalshi's nominal trading volume in January is expected to reach approximately $9.1 billion.
It is worth mentioning that last October, the overall trading volume of prediction markets was $8.7 billion, with Kalshi's market share around 45%-55% ; now, the monthly trading volume of just the Kalshi platform exceeds the overall market size at that time. This reflects both the红利期 (dividend period) of the prediction market整体 being in a时代风口 (era wind vent), and also shows the可怕 (terrifying) business growth rate of Kalshi.
According to data from the KalshiData website, as of January 29, Kalshi's historical total trading volume exceeded $34.05 billion, with a daily average trading volume exceeding $20.48 million; looking at its nominal trading volume K-line chart, it has grown almost exponentially since September 2025.
Capital Market Pricing Range: Kalshi Single Share Price is $300-$450
Finally, as the current number one prediction market platform, although Kalshi's specific IPO time and number of shares issued have not been determined,结合 (combining) its previous financing news and external statements, an IPO is a certainty. Currently, there are many divergences in the pre-IPO market pricing of its stocks between traditional financial markets and cryptocurrency markets:
The pre-IPO market in traditional financial markets prices Kalshi's stock relatively lower——
- On Nasdaq Private Market, Kalshi's single share is priced around $307;
- On Hiive, Kalshi's single share is priced around $357.
The pre-IPO market in cryptocurrency markets prices Kalshi's stock relatively higher——
- On PreStocks, Kalshi's implied market capitalization is approximately $14 billion, with a single share price of about $407;
- On Jarsy, Kalshi's market valuation is $11 billion, with a单独 (separate) pricing of $450 per share.
In the next article, Odaily Planet Daily will analyze in detail the price range worth buying for Kalshi's pre-IPO stock market, dissecting the investment opportunities in prediction market stocks from the perspective of the pre-IPO market.
