Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010 )
June 10th, the 103rd day since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran war, peace talks between the US and Iran remain arduous with no conclusion yet.
Today, following Israel's strike action against Iran, according to US officials, the US's third round of strikes against Iran has also commenced and swiftly concluded. Behind this century-defining conflict, the key to reconciliation is not only the deeper issues of Iran's nuclear weapons and uranium enrichment materials but also a current major sticking point between the two sides: the $24 billion worth of Iranian assets frozen by the US, including approximately $1 billion in crypto assets.
Where do these assets come from? What do the crypto assets include? Can the US and Iran reach an agreement on this matter going forward? These are the main topics we will explore in this article.
Trump's Laughably 'Hot-and-Cold' Duplicity: Coexisting Toughness and Compromise
Whether the US-Iran conflict can end through negotiations naturally hinges on the key figure, US President Trump. However, the businessman-turned-president Trump has a particularly flexible character and, compared to politician-type presidents, is more focused on practical interests. Therefore, his projected image is also extremely fragmented: on one hand, his public statements are sometimes tough, sometimes conciliatory; on the other hand, he is accustomed to setting up smokescreens, using pretexts like negotiations, reconciliation, and 'an agreement is about to be reached' to mislead Iran and even global news media, thereby achieving goals such as 'manipulating capital markets' and other undisclosed purposes.
According to CNN reports, since the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28th, Trump has made statements like 'a US-Iran agreement is about to be reached' more than 30 times (Odaily Planet Daily note: some say at least 37 times) on social media, in public appearances, and during phone interviews with reporters.
In view of this, Iran has also not harbored a 'quick-fix' fantasy about the peace talks, instead envisioning them as a four-stage plan.
On June 4th, according to reports from the Iranian media Fars News, Iran outlined a four-phase plan for an agreement with the United States:
- The first phase focuses on a comprehensive cessation of military action on all fronts, including Iran, the United States, and the Axis of Resistance;
- The core of the second phase is the implementation of measures for four key issues, including: the Strait of Hormuz and related mechanisms, lifting the blockade, canceling oil restrictions and sanctions, and unfreezing part of Iran's assets;
- The third phase would initiate broader negotiations on sanctions and nuclear issues after objective and verifiable measures are implemented;
- The fourth phase involves establishing a supervisory committee to monitor the implementation of the agreement and track the parties' compliance.
Previously, the US and Iran had ceased hostilities, but due to Israel attacking Iran again and the turbulent situation in Lebanon, the efforts of the first phase were temporarily thwarted; the second phase is now the main sticking point in the US-Iran talks.
Specific Amount of Frozen Iranian Assets: Iran Claims $24 Billion, US Confiscated $1 Billion in Crypto Assets
Previously, according to CNN, a US official familiar with the negotiations stated that one of the remaining key sticking points in the US-Iran negotiations is the issue of economic compensation, as Trump is eager to secure a deal perceived as superior to the agreement reached during the Obama administration.
The official said, Iran has informed mediators that once both sides agree on an initial Memorandum of Understanding, they want some form of economic compensation as soon as possible, not deferred to a future date. But officials in the Trump administration worry that unfreezing funds at such an early stage could alleviate the economic damage inflicted on Iran—this might eliminate, or at least weaken, a key leverage Washington holds over Tehran. This leverage would be crucial for the US entering the second phase of negotiations to discuss specific details of Iran's nuclear program. Trump has made clear to his team that he wants any deal to appear much tougher than the 2015 agreement and to avoid any action that could be interpreted as 'handing over large sums of cash'—a phrase Trump used to criticize Obama's decision to provide economic compensation to Iran.
On June 6th, media reports indicated that a potential US-Iran agreement depends on whether the US agrees to release $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets. This figure was later confirmed by Iranian officials.
That day, according to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, stated that at least 50% of Iran's frozen financial assets must be unfrozen immediately upon signing any Memorandum of Understanding with the US. He added that the remaining funds should be 'unfrozen within a limited time of one to two months after the agreement is signed.' Gharibabadi stated that these assets belong to Iran and were 'illegally frozen' by the US, and unfreezing them is a core requirement of any potential understanding. He said the remaining details of the access-to-funds mechanism, including technical and financial arrangements, would be negotiated further during the 60-day implementation period after the memorandum is signed.
However, this demand was immediately met with Trump's stern refusal: he stated he would not unfreeze Iranian assets or lift any sanctions in advance of any agreement.
In late May, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in an interview with Fox News that the US had seized approximately $1 billion in Iranian crypto assets. Bessent said the action was part of sanctions against the Iranian regime and its proxy networks, and the funds had been frozen. This includes about $344 million worth of USDT stablecoin frozen by stablecoin issuer Tether in April this year, as well as other cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH.
He stated that before the US Treasury Department intervened, the Iranian regime was stealing $400 to $500 million per month and distributing the money to dozens of senior officials. 'We are working with allies across Europe to seize various villas, houses, and properties,' Bessent explained. 'And this money was actually stolen from the Iranian people.' Additionally, according to Bitcoin News analysis, the figure Bessent initially disclosed in late April was 'close to $500 million,' while the latest figure as of May 29th has surpassed the $1 billion mark, indicating that the enforcement intensity of this operation, named 'Operation Economic Fury,' continues to increase.
It is worth mentioning that, according to Wikipedia, the US had previously even seized an Iranian government-owned skyscraper in Manhattan (valued at over $1 billion) and its accumulated rent (approximately $50 million).
Furthermore, according to the latest media reports, the US is considering using frozen Iranian assets to fund the reconstruction and repair work in Gulf countries affected by the 'US-Israel-Iran conflict.' According to informed sources, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has directed relevant teams to assess the damage Iran has caused to Gulf allies. Additionally, the US is considering using frozen Iranian assets to compensate for potential future losses.
Considering all the above information, despite Trump stating last night that he was 'very close to a very good, strong, powerful agreement,' the US-Israel-Iran conflict will find it difficult to achieve reconciliation before the issues of compensation and the handling of frozen assets are determined.
As for the impact on crypto assets, it is largely confined to the macro landscape affecting the broader crypto market; the direct market-dumping impact on specific cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH is relatively minor.
In the foreseeable future, although both sides hope to end this conflict quickly, constrained by conflicts of interest and the international situation, 'fighting while talking, talking while fighting' will likely remain the norm for the US, Iran, and even Israel.
